Updated:
Nov 7, 2026 , 09:16 AM ET
• 4 min read
Our college football expert is fading a struggling, banged-up Texas offense on Saturday afternoon.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Arch Manning, Austin Simmons NCAAF
Texas heads to Columbia with its top two receivers questionable, adding another concern for an offense that’s struggled to find its rhythm. My Texas vs. Missouri prediction examines whether the Longhorns can overcome those issues against a dangerous Tigers defense.
Missouri is a perfect 4-0 at home and fresh off a convincing 34-10 win at Arkansas. The Tigers know how to get after the quarterback, which could spell trouble for Arch Manning behind a shaky Texas offensive line.
I’m taking the points with Missouri and expecting a low-scoring battle in Saturday’s SEC showdown. Find out why in my latest college football picks for Week 10.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas vs. Missouri: Missouri +2.5
I would play the Missouri Tigers to cover this number down to 52%.
The Texas Longhorns’ passing game runs through Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, and both are questionable after leaving the win over Mississippi State hurt. Coleman hasn’t practiced this week.
To make matters worse, left tackle Trevor Goosby is out. Arch Manning was already producing -0.04 EPA per dropback with all three of them in the lineup.
Missouri’s Austin Simmons sits at 0.20 EPA per dropback, and he gets a Texas secondary with two starting corners listed as questionable. Mizzou is 4-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 24.8 points.
I’ll gladly take the team in better form with the better offense.
COVERS INTEL: The metrics show Missouri winning the field-position battle by 5.7 yards per drive, 13th nationally, while Texas sits 79th at -0.6 yards.
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Texas vs. Missouri Over/Under pick: Under 43.5
I’d play the Under to 42.5.
Missouri will want to lean on Jamal Roberts, but they own a 37.8% rushing success rate, 128th nationally. That’s a rough matchup against a Texas defense allowing a 35.8% rushing success rate, seventh in the country.
Missouri also stalls near the goal line, posting a 35.7% success rate in the red zone, 125th nationally.
The Texas offense will come into this one banged up and already struggling. Neither offense is built to win a shootout.
Texas vs. Missouri prop: Texas team total Under 23.5
Texas has posted negative offensive EPA per play in five straight games, and Coleman and Wingo were healthy for most of that stretch.
Field position makes it worse. Texas ranks 137th of 138 teams in EPA per play on its own half of the field, so drives that start deep rarely flip the field.
Missouri’s defense ranks 11th in havoc rate at 19.1%, while Texas allows havoc on 17.1% of its snaps, 105th nationally. With Goosby out at left tackle, I don’t see that gap closing.
Texas vs. Missouri combo
Every leg runs through the same idea. Texas’ offense was already the weak link before its top receivers got hurt, and Missouri can win a low-scoring game at home.
The moneyline anchors it. If Texas can’t move the ball past midfield, Missouri doesn’t need a big day from its own offense to win, and both totals stay low.
If the Tigers’ run game gets stuffed instead, that only strengthens the Under.
Texas vs. Missouri combo
Missouri moneyline
Under 43.5
Texas team total Under 23.5
Texas vs Missouri smart money
Texas vs. Missouri odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spread: Texas -2.5 | Missouri +2.5
Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (50%)
Moneyline: Texas 54% | Missouri 48%
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Texas vs. Missouri weather
Saturday’s forecast in Columbia calls for temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff, no chance of precipitation, and light winds around 4 mph. The game should not be meaningfully impacted by the weather.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs. Missouri trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Missouri.
How to watch Texas vs. Missouri
Location
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Date
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026
Kickoff
Noon ET
TV
ESPN
Texas vs. Missouri latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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