Pittsburgh Penguins’ Bryan Rust, center, celebrates after his hat trick with teammates Sidney Crosby (87), Erik Karlsson (65) and Rickard Rakell (67) during third-period NHL hockey game action against the Montreal Canadiens in Montreal, Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024. (Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press via AP)
The 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins had the puck in the offensive zone. A lot.
A deeper dive into the NHL’s advanced game measurements known as EDGE Stats shows just why the Penguins were among the worst teams in the NHL, yet simultaneously disappointing as they could have been better … much, much better.
For starters, the Penguins should have scored many more goals. According to EDGE, last year’s Penguins’ time with the puck in the offensive zone put them in the 83rd percentile, which means they were better than 26 other teams in the very important category.
And yet, the Penguins were 14th worst (or 18th best) in goals for, leading to losing 36 games and 12 more in extra time, winning only 34.
At the risk of bringing up nightmares and bad memories, indeed, there was a lot to like about the Penguins game.
Except for actually putting the puck in the net.
The Penguins had the puck in the offensive zone 43.4% of the time (83rd percentile), and spent only 39% of the time in the defensive zone (77th percentile), but strangely were just below average with 17.6% of the time spent in the neutral zone.
The center ice stat could tell us that the Penguins transitioned well, but were also too easy to transition against. Given the generous nature of their puck possession and defense, that explanation is as good as any.
But if the Penguins had the puck in the offensive zone, where were the goals?
The EDGE advanced metrics are not kind to the Penguins. Chances, yes. Conversions, no.
The Penguins again ranked in the 83rd percentile with High Danger Shots, 64th percentile in goals, but at 19%, they were below average (20.2%) in shooting percentage.
It gets worse.
In terms of hard shots, the Penguins were essentially floating biscuits to the cage. They ranked below average in top shot speed, shots between 90-100mph, shots between 80-90mph, and 70-80mph shots.
They were also below the 50% line in taking mid-range shots and long-range shots.
In layman’s terms, the Penguins got a lot of high-danger scoring chances but didn’t convert, didn’t take enough medium shots, and didn’t get a lot of juice on the shots.
That jibes with Money Puck’s evaluations of the Penguins’ secondary wingers, including Philip Tomasino, who were well in the red on the stat entitled “Shooting Talent.”
Speed?
Skating was once the hallmark of the Penguins. In fact, they changed the league with the lightning-fast squad that won the 2016 Stanley Cup. Former coach Mike Sullivan unleashed a ferocious forecheck that didn’t get opposing defensemen a moment’s peace.
The Penguins dominated games with their speed.
However, that advantage is now provably long gone. According to EDGE, the Penguins’ speeds were subpar. They were merely in the 51st percentile with a top recorded speed of 23.67 mph. They were below 50th on speed bursts above 20mph, yet were in the 80th percentile in speed bursts between 18-20mph.
In other words, the Penguins had a lot of mid-range bursts, but not many skating in the upper echelons of the NHL game.
Yet, the Penguins had to skate more, cover more distance than 67% of teams. That, too, seems like a bad recipe.
So, to sum up the disappointment of the Penguins, they were slower, with weaker shots, less finishing, but had a lot more chances to score.
Those issues probably won’t get much better this season, as their big free agents have average shooting percentages. Anthony Mantha (12.8%) and Justin Brazeau (13.3%) are slightly above the 10-12% norm, but have much to prove.
Erik Karlsson had the Penguins’ fastest recorded speed last season, at 23.67 mph (98th percentile) and top shot speed at 97.52 (89th percentile).
In case you’re curious about now 38-year-old Sidney Crosby, or worried about his losing a step, he ranked in the 64th percentile with a 22.54 mph speed burst, he skated more miles than 97% of all NHL players, and the number of bursts he had over 20 mph was 159, placing him in the … 87th percentile.
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