From a hockey perspective, the New York Rangers’ signing of Artemi Panarin as a free agent in July 2019 has gone about as well as they could have hoped.

He’s led New York in scoring each of his six seasons and ranks first in franchise history in points per game (1.28). The team has made the Eastern Conference final twice with him as its top offensive producer. He’s twice finished in the top five in Hart Trophy voting for the league’s most valuable player.

Now only one year remains on the seven-year deal, worth $11.6 million in average annual value, that brought him to New York. This leaves the Rangers at a massive crossroads. What comes next with Panarin is perhaps the team’s biggest question entering the 2025-26 season.

“He’s not going to sign if he’s not paid as a premier player,” one Western Conference executive said. “That’s what they’re going to have to decide.”

Of course, there is more to the Panarin decision than just hockey. In April, The Athletic reported that Panarin and Madison Square Garden paid financial settlements to a Rangers employee last year after she alleged that Panarin sexually assaulted her in December 2023. The Rangers did not publicly discipline Panarin, who played in every game in 2023-24 and missed only two games in 2024-25, both because of an upper-body injury.

Panarin is coming off a 37-goal, 89-point season, the second-most goals of any season in his career, but it’s his lowest rate of point production since coming to New York.

“His top game is fantastic,” said an NHL scout based in the East. “But the consistency, of course, wasn’t there, along with the rest of the team, too. Definitely doesn’t all fall on him. I haven’t seen much of a regression in terms of his overall talent.”

Evolving-Hockey projects Panarin’s next contract to come in at three years with a $10.1 million average salary. That lines up with Panarin’s projected market value for the coming years, according to colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s model.

New York has $29.6 million of projected cap space in the 2026 summer, according to PuckPedia. If Panarin re-signs with the Rangers, his cap hit will eat into that, as will the next contracts for multiple restricted free agents, namely Braden Schneider.

There is a loaded class of pending unrestricted free agents in 2026, headlined by Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Kirill Kaprizov. Still, it’s also a real possibility that none of those stars reach the open market. If those players start signing extensions, Panarin’s camp could potentially gain instant bargaining leverage.

Though a dominant offensive player in the regular season, Panarin’s production has not always translated to the playoffs.

In 73 postseason games, he has 21 goals and 61 points — a paltry 24-goal, 69-point pace for a full season, well below his career average of 33 goals and 95 points. Though he delivered a Game 7 overtime winner against Pittsburgh in 2022 and an overtime goal against Carolina in 2024, he has never been better than a point-per-game player in the playoffs for the Rangers. That will have to factor into general manager Chris Drury’s thinking, too.

The Rangers’ top-six forward group is full of players over 30. Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck and J.T. Miller are all 32 and under contract for at least four more seasons. The age of those players, as well as Panarin, will play into all of the Rangers’ decisions.

“The team wants to be a contender soon,” said the East-based NHL scout. “It’s not like they’re wondering, philosophically, ‘are we going to rebuild or are we going to pay him?’ It’s, ‘we want to win now.’ ”

Scouts believe Panarin could continue to produce at a high level, even as he enters his mid-30s.

“Especially if you put him with the right guys, he’s a really dangerous player,” the Eastern-based scout said. “A smaller, more skilled shifty guy like Panarin, I feel like he could play for a good handful more years.”

“I do think his game will age just because of how smart he is and his skill level,” a Western Conference scout added. “That’s a very rare find, and I think that he will be able to adapt even as maybe his legs fall off a little bit.”

Panarin identified the Rangers as the team he wanted to play for when he was a free agent in 2019, and he likely passed up money to join. Would he do the same to stay?

“The luxury is guys love playing in New York,” said the Western Conference executive.

New York would presumably love it if he were to take a deal similar to the one John Tavares signed with Toronto this summer.

Coming off a 38-goal season at 34, the same age as Panarin will be next summer, the Maple Leafs center extended on a four-year, $4.389-million-AAV deal. That’s a lot to ask, though, from a player of Panarin’s stature. He had 49 goals and 120 points in 2023-24, after all.

“He’s getting older, so he’s probably not going to continue at a crazy level, but you never know,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “It’s a critical year for the whole organization. Looking at that team and what they have and what they’re doing and where they’re going, I think it’s an incredibly important year.”

(Photo: Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)