{"id":103613,"date":"2025-08-23T06:07:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T06:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/103613\/"},"modified":"2025-08-23T06:07:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T06:07:21","slug":"shane-van-gisbergen-nascar-cup-playoffs-2025-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/103613\/","title":{"rendered":"Shane van Gisbergen: NASCAR Cup playoffs 2025 preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Ryan Kemna and Jonathan Fjeld<\/p>\n

In setting a new NASCAR Cup Series record for the most wins in a single rookie season, Shane van Gisbergen qualified for his maiden Cup playoff appearance.<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Ryan Kemna\/TRE<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Ryan Kemna\/TRE<\/p>\n

Shane van Gisbergen amassed four race wins \u2013 Mexico City in June, Chicago and Sonoma in July and Watkins Glen in August \u2013 and finished sixth at Circuit of the Americas in March. He racked up 22 playoff points from his race wins and two stage wins \u2013 all from road course races in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Normally, that could lock a driver in for a deep playoff run \u2013 but he still has work to do on ovals, which comprise nine of the 10 playoff races. In 2025, he has just six top-20 finishes on ovals: 14th at Richmond in August and at Charlotte in May, 18th at Michigan in June, 19th at Indianapolis in July and 20th at Kansas in May and Darlington in April. <\/p>\n

As we saw last year, however, anything is possible in the playoffs. <\/p>\n

Is there a path to the Cup for Shane van Gisbergen? <\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Ryan Kemna\/TRE<\/p>\n

With three challenging ovals in the Round of 16, including one he has never raced on, SVG has an uphill battle, especially with an average oval finish of 26.9 in 2025.<\/p>\n

The first stop of the round, Darlington, has been noted as Van Gisbergen\u2019s favorite oval. In the spring, he finished 20th and seems to learn more about tracks with each trip.<\/p>\n

World Wide Technology Raceway Gateway is entirely new for him but brings a similar approach as Richmond, where SVG finished 14th and tied his season-best on ovals.<\/p>\n

Darlington and Gateway set up an outside chance for SVG to make the Round of 12 \u2013 but Bristol could stand in his way. SVG had a rough race in the spring and struggled with the track in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, albeit with a different car.<\/p>\n

Improved strength and consistency on ovals inspires some hope for the No. 88 team\u2019s playoff run. If SVG can maintain strong enough finishes and stay out of trouble, he can advance to the Round of 12.<\/p>\n

The Round of 12 features the Charlotte Roval where he is an instant favorite. If SVG can win at the Roval, points are no matter.<\/p>\n

Then, the Round of 8 gets harder. Much harder. More on that in a second.<\/p>\n

Crunching the numbers on Shane van Gisbergen<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Ryan Kemna\/TRE<\/p>\n

Here is the average points total a driver has to reach in each round to advance to the next round:<\/p>\n

Round of 16<\/p>\n

2,077 \u2013 Four-season average<\/p>\n

2,085 \u2013 2024<\/p>\n

SVG is starting the playoffs with 2,022 points. He will need to average around 18-21 points per race to advance. That means amassing an average finish of around 17.5 but he could need less than that if he earns any stage points.<\/p>\n

Round of 12<\/p>\n

3,106 \u2013 Average<\/p>\n

3,104 \u2013 2024<\/p>\n

(Note: This is Alex Bowman\u2019s points total that provisionally advanced him to the Round of 8 in 2024 before he was disqualified in post-race tech at Charlotte Roval.)<\/p>\n

Even if SVG doesn\u2019t win at the Charlotte Roval and can replicate his average road course points total (47), 47 points can reduce the average number of points needed at New Hampshire and Kansas to 17-19 points per race \u2013 or an average finish of 18th-20th \u2013 not including any stage points.<\/p>\n

Round of 8<\/p>\n

4,141 \u2013 Average<\/p>\n

4,156 \u2013 2024<\/p>\n

(Note: We included Alex Bowman\u2019s points total that provisionally advanced him to the Round of 8 in 2024 before he was disqualified in post-race tech at Charlotte Roval.)<\/p>\n

This is where it gets really hard for SVG \u2013 even if sweeping the stages and winning at the Roval boosted him to 4,029 points. <\/p>\n

Starting with 4,029 points, SVG would need to average 37-42 points per race in the all-oval round. His best oval points day was at Talladega last fall. SVG was fourth in the second stage and finished 15th \u2013 the equivalent of 29 points.<\/p>\n

Earning 29 points would be great \u2013 but his average would go up to 42-49 points per race. (Maximum points in a race is 61.)<\/p>\n

Of course, winning at Talladega would cure everything. At Phoenix, he\u2019d surely be the longshot for the championship.<\/p>\n

The Round of 8 would be tough for the Cup rookie and road course ace \u2013 but it\u2019s a feat he could build on for the future. <\/p>\n

Shane van Gisbergen playoff overview<\/p>\n

\"\"gfx: Ryan Kemna\/TRE<\/p>\n

2025 stats:<\/p>\n

Four wins<\/p>\n

Mexico City, Chicago Street Course, Sonoma, Watkins Glen<\/p>\n

Two stage wins<\/p>\n

Four top-five finishes and five top-10 finishes<\/p>\n

Two poles<\/p>\n

Mexico City, Chicago Street Course<\/p>\n

246 of 5,746 laps led<\/p>\n

21.3 average finish<\/p>\n

Three DNFs<\/p>\n

Phoenix (crash), Las Vegas (crash), Bristol (suspension issue)<\/p>\n

Strengths:<\/p>\n

Weaknesses:<\/p>\n

Oval Experience and Performance<\/p>\n

Unload and Qualifying Speed<\/p>\n

Putting a Whole Race Together<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"by Ryan Kemna and Jonathan Fjeld In setting a new NASCAR Cup Series record for the most wins…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103614,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[2967,59992,425,1703,4052,69092,3335,99],"class_list":["post-103613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nascar","tag-2967","tag-jonathan-fjeld","tag-nascar","tag-nascar-cup-series","tag-playoffs","tag-ryan-kemna","tag-shane-van-gisbergen","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103614"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}