explored earlier this week<\/a>. Lefties around the league are dominating, especially against right-handed hitters. That\u2019s been really pronounced for the Mets, whose right-handed or switch hitters (outside of Starling Marte) have performed well below career norms against lefties.<\/p>\nMets’ RHB v. LHP<\/p>\n
Player<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Through 2024<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
2025<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
0.847<\/p>\n
0.776<\/p>\n
0.825<\/p>\n
0.662<\/p>\n
0.773<\/p>\n
0.772<\/p>\n
0.751<\/p>\n
0.699<\/p>\n
0.696<\/p>\n
0.482<\/p>\n
The Mets are scoring nearly half a run per game less against left-handed starters than they are against right-handed starters.<\/p>\n
And yet, this floored me when I discovered it moments before typing it: The Mets\u2019 19-17 record against left-handed starters is the second-best in the National League. The Mets play at an 85 1\/2-win pace against lefties \u2014 and an 86-win pace against righties.<\/p>\n
Milwaukee is 27-14 against southpaws, and the rest of the NL is 69 games under .500 against them. (Colorado\u2019s 5-30 record is rough.) After the Brewers, the Mets and Padres are two over .500, and Atlanta is one game over against lefties.<\/p>\n
There is no logical explanation for this discrepancy. Maybe the Mets piled up low-scoring wins against southpaws early in the season, when their pitching was leading the league in ERA; New York has been 5-5, 10-10 and 13-13 against lefties this year. The win\/loss distribution has been pretty even.<\/p>\n
The Mets are better against lefties with runners in scoring position and in high leverage, but not by so much that it obviously explains this disconnect. So I\u2019m left shrugging.<\/p>\n
Why does this matter? You see it with Philadelphia this week. The Phillies are one of three teams most likely to match up with the Mets in the wild-card series, should New York get there. In that series, Philadelphia will be throwing at least two left-handers and possibly three, depending on whether Aaron Nola looks better than Jes\u00fas Luzardo or Ranger Su\u00e1rez by then.<\/p>\n
The Dodgers and Padres are the two other likeliest potential matchups. Los Angeles has Blake Snell in the rotation and a quartet of lefty relievers. San Diego is unlikely to start a lefty in a three-game series, but it can maximize Adrian Morejon (as it did against the Mets last month) in a short series.<\/p>\n
The Mets themselves are only 15-18 when they start a left-hander, with their 1-7 record in Sean Manaea\u2019s starts weighing them down.<\/p>\n
.697<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve also talked about the split in the Mets\u2019 order between the every-day-it\u2019s-pretty-much-the-same top half and the anything-goes bottom half. But we haven\u2019t yet discussed how that split works for the Mets\u2019 pitching staff.<\/p>\n
In Sunday\u2019s eighth inning, Gregory Soto hit Vidal Bruj\u00e1n with a slider to bring the top of the Atlanta order back to the plate with the bases loaded. Jurickson Profar, one of the sport\u2019s hottest hitters of late, singled in the go-ahead runs to essentially win the game. You probably thought, recalling what happened in the last series with Atlanta, that no team in baseball is worse at handling No. 9 hitters than the Mets.<\/p>\n
You\u2019d be wrong, because a few last-place teams (and the Rays) handle ninth-place hitters worse. But the Mets rank 25th in the league against No. 9 hitters \u2014 just as they do against No. 7 hitters and one spot ahead of their rank against No. 6 hitters. (It\u2019s not all bad: The Mets are the best in baseball at limiting production from No. 8 hitters, perhaps in tribute to Rey Ordo\u00f1ez. That didn\u2019t work Sunday against Sean Murphy.)<\/p>\n
Ninth hitters entered Sunday with a .697 OPS against the Mets; No. 4 hitters entered Sunday with a .647 OPS against the Mets. That\u2019s right, No. 9 hitters are easily outperforming cleanup hitters against New York.<\/p>\n
In fact, the Mets are generally handling the top halves of opposing orders quite well. They rank second against No. 4 hitters, fourth against No. 5 hitters and fifth against No. 3 hitters, and if that sentence is confusing, it can be reduced to: The Mets rank in the top five in suppressing production from the middle of the opposing order.<\/p>\n
But they\u2019re not taking care of business against the bottom half, and that\u2019s mitigated that remarkable success against the best hitters, as it did on Sunday. Succeeding in the postseason is often predicated on properly navigating opposing lineups \u2014 on ensuring the most dangerous players are seldom in position to break the game open. The Mets did that in the NLDS, dominating the lower half of the Phillies\u2019 order. They did not in the NLCS against Los Angeles, and they allowed more runs than any team ever had in a National League postseason series.<\/p>\n
The exposition<\/p>\n
The Mets couldn\u2019t complete a sweep of Atlanta on Sunday, leaving them 3-3 on their road trip to the bottom two teams in the division. New York\u2019s 69-61 record has it seven behind first-place Philadelphia and 1 1\/2 ahead of Cincinnati for the last wild card spot.<\/p>\n
The Phillies took two of three from the Nationals after sweeping the Mariners earlier in the week, picking up two games on the Mets over the course of the seven days. At 76-54, Philadelphia is 2 1\/2 games clear of the NL West leader for a first-round bye.<\/p>\n
The Marlins salvaged Sunday\u2019s finale from the Blue Jays to avoid a sweep. It\u2019s been a rough stretch for Miami, which, after rebounding all the way to .500 by sweeping the Yankees to start August, has lost six consecutive series and gone 6-14. That\u2019s a missed opportunity to be a legitimate hanger-on in the wild-card race. Instead, the Marlins are eight back. They host Atlanta for three starting Monday.<\/p>\n
The pitching possibles<\/p>\n
v. Philadelphia<\/p>\n
RHP Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA) v. LHP Cristopher S\u00e1nchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA)
LHP Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.15) v. LHP Jes\u00fas Luzardo (12-6, 4.10)
RHP Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46) v. RHP Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44)<\/p>\n
v. Miami<\/p>\n
RHP Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60) v. Janson Junk (6-2, 4.09)
TBD v. RHP Eury P\u00e9rez (6-3, 3.44)
LHP David Peterson (8-5, 3.18) v. RHP Edward Cabrera (6-7, 3.52)
RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Sandy Alcantara (7-11, 6.04)<\/p>\n
TBD, eh?<\/p>\n
Since I reported that the Mets hoped to get to September before bringing in a sixth starter, they\u2019ve placed Frankie Montas on the IL and had Brandon Sproat pitch as a bulk guy in Triple A. The first points to New York adding a sixth starter before Sept. 1, and the latter suggests Jonah Tong could be the guy ahead of Sproat. Tylor Megill is still an option. He pitched Friday for Triple-A Syracuse.<\/p>\n
Slotting that pitcher in Friday ahead of Peterson gives him and Senga an extra day to prevent consecutive starts on regular rest.<\/p>\n
Injury updates<\/p>\n
Mets’ injured list<\/p>\n
Player<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Injury<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Elig.<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
ETA<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
UCL sprain in right thumb<\/p>\n
Aug. 28<\/p>\n
September<\/p>\n
Lower back inflammation<\/p>\n
Sept. 9<\/p>\n
September<\/p>\n
Right elbow sprain<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
September<\/p>\n
Fractured left tibia<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
September<\/p>\n
Ruptured left Achilles tendon<\/p>\n
Aug. 26<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Left lat strain<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Tommy John surgery<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Elbow surgery<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Tommy John surgery<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Tommy John surgery<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Left shoulder fracture<\/p>\n
Now<\/p>\n
2026<\/p>\n
Tommy John surgery<\/p>\n
Sept. 1<\/p>\n
2027<\/p>\n
Right elbow UCL injury<\/p>\n
Sept. 1<\/p>\n
2027<\/p>\n
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL<\/p>\n
Francisco Alvarez will be re-evaluated this week after the inflammation in his right thumb has sufficiently subsided to see if he can go on a rehab assignment and actually swing the bat despite the torn ligament in that thumb. Players have played through that injury before; they don\u2019t remember the experience fondly<\/a>.
\nThings escalated quickly for Frankie Montas, who has a \u201csignificant\u201d UCL injury that sounds like it\u2019s headed for surgery that would jeopardize the entirety of his 2026 season. Montas\u2019 trip to the IL simplifies some roster machinations for this year\u2019s Mets, but losing him as even an option for 2026 or modest eat-most-of-the-money trade bait this winter would hurt.
\nJose Siri should begin a rehab assignment this week, which would make him an option for the big-league club in mid-September.
\nJesse Winker still hasn\u2019t started baseball activities. It\u2019s getting tougher to envision a return for Winker this season.
\nMinor-league schedule<\/p>\nTriple A: Syracuse at Scranton\/Wilkes-Barre (New York, AL)
Double A: Binghamton v. Somerset (New York, AL)
High A: Brooklyn v. Hudson Valley (New York, AL)
Low A: St. Lucie v. Lakeland (Detroit)<\/p>\n
Scoreboard watching<\/p>\n
Philadelphia (76-54): at New York (NL)3, v. Atlanta4
Cincinnati (68-63): at Los Angeles (NL)3, v. St. Louis3<\/p>\n
A note on the epigraph<\/p>\n
I haven\u2019t liked much of Franzen\u2019s work outside of \u201cThe Corrections,\u201d but I love \u201cThe Corrections.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trivia time<\/p>\n
Since the introduction of the wild card in 1995, who is the best team (by regular-season record) to miss the postseason? It was extremely relevant to the Mets that year.<\/p>\n
(I\u2019ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)<\/p>\n
(Photo: John David Mercer \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cElective ignorance was a great survival skill, perhaps the greatest.\u201d\u2014\u201cThe Corrections,\u201d Jonathan Franzen The Mets\u2019 biggest series of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109388,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[363,1189,99],"class_list":["post-109387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}