While the current economic outlook may raise some valid concerns about the trajectory of the American economy, those fears will not be enough to knock the United States from its position as the economic powerhouse of the world.<\/p>\n
At least that\u2019s according to JPMorgan\u2019s U.S. head of investment strategy, Jacob Manoukian<\/a>, who tells Fortune he will be paying little attention to calls of \u2018sell America.\u2019<\/p>\n Earlier this year investors may have been tempted to shift their cash out of the U.S. in the face of market volatility<\/a> arising out of tariff policy and questions about economic fundamentals\u2014most notably federal and government debt.<\/p>\n Investors may have gone in search of safe havens\u2014in gold or perhaps even the Euro or yen\u2014only to watch a matter of months later markets right themselves with the S&P 500 charting 7% up for the year to date.<\/p>\n Concerns that the U.S. may lose its seat at the head of the economic table can largely be dismissed<\/a>, Manoukian tells Fortune in an exclusive interview this week. <\/p>\n At the peak of what he calls \u201ctariff tantrum\u201d or \u201ctariff panic\u201d<\/a> he said there were many voices that didn\u2019t like the \u201cdirection of travel\u201d in the U.S. Their concern was that an expanding deficit, business-unfriendly tariffs, and chaotic policymaking created a difficult environment for businesses.<\/p>\n The take of these bears was that they had become over-reliant on U.S. assets in recent years and needed to rebalance\u2014they called on investors to sell America.<\/p>\n \u201cWe completely disagree with that notion,\u201d Manoukian said. \u201cThere\u2019s cyclical reasons to think that the U.S. dollar can continue to depreciate against major trading partners, but we completely disagree with the idea that the U.S. is somehow losing its position as the center of the financial universe.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThroughout history there have been periods where the U.S. system\u2014I\u2019ll define it as this alignment of institutions, law, culture, and the innovation cycle\u2014to propel capital market returns and to protect shareholders has been continuously tested.\u00a0Over time it evolves and hardens and becomes stronger.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s very different than the kind of system, institutional decisions, political decisions and cultural DNA that exists in other places in the world.\u201d <\/p>\n He continued: \u201cWhether you\u2019re worried about what the current White House is doing or a snap back in the next election cycle to the opposite end of the political spectrum, there\u2019s a reason why we can feel comfortable telling our clients that politics don\u2019t matter as much to market returns, and it\u2019s because [of] what runs deeper than the fleeting election cycles.\u201d <\/p>\n This is also the rationale Manoukian shares with clients asking day in, day out, about America\u2019s $36.2 trillion national debt burden\u2014thrown into sharper focus because of fears President Trump\u2019s \u2018One Big Beautiful Bill\u2019 may push it even higher. It\u2019s a notion even pushed by former Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) boss Elon Musk, who said the bill would undo all the efficiency work he had undertaken in the White House. <\/p>\n Manoukian said: \u201cProbably every client I speak with asks about the federal debt and deficit.\u00a0It is top of mind for everybody, but \u2026 if you\u2019re actually looking at the U.S. like a credit underwriter, which is what you have to do when you participate in treasury markets: It\u2019s the largest economy in the world, it has the most vibrant innovation cycle relative to other OECD countries, it has actually pretty low tax collections as a percentage of GDP, it\u2019s the world\u2019s reserve currency, its external debt share is actually relatively low, and it borrows in its own currency.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n The Fed question<\/p>\n Manoukian isn\u2019t alone on his optimism about continued upsides in the market. Goldman Sachs sees<\/a> the S&P 500 hitting near-7000 next year, up 11% based on expectations of a normalized Fed rate.<\/p>\n While markets are generally pricing in cuts from the current rate of 4.25 to 4.5%, President Trump is convinced that the Federal Open Market Committee needs to go further, faster.<\/a> Trump has even suggested cutting rates to below 1%, representing more than a 70% drop. <\/p>\n