Ah, the dawn of a new season, when every team is destined to go 17-0 because each has 53 guys who are in the best shape of their lives and a dozen prospective Pro Bowlers.<\/p>\n
Yes, optimism springs eternal this time of year, but we all know the NFL season is full of surprises that will inevitably blindside us as we watch the year unfold.<\/p>\n
Before that happens, The Athletic conducted its annual poll of coaches and executives around the NFL to get their thoughts on the upcoming season. We asked them to predict which teams are on the upswing and which are on the downturn, along with which players are in line to snag some hardware at the end of it all.<\/p>\n
This year, we had 31 voters on the panel. All voters were granted anonymity to speak freely. And some voters chose to skip certain questions, so there are categories with fewer than 31 votes.<\/p>\n
We have a lot to dive into, so let\u2019s get it going.<\/p>\n
Burrow left a mark last season as he nearly led the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs after a dreadful start due to a porous defense. Burrow led the NFL with 460 completions, 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns. His 70.6 completion percentage was a career best, and he threw interceptions on just 1.4 percent of his passes, his best mark since his 10-game rookie season.<\/p>\n
Burrow just delivered the best training camp of his career, quietly guiding the Bengals into a highly anticipated season while staving off the summer injury bug that\u2019s hit him in previous years. That\u2019s why the voters believe Burrow will overtake Allen for the award.<\/p>\n
Teams smell blood in the water with Mahomes, as the Chiefs\u2019 offense has fallen off a cliff over the past two seasons, and they weren\u2019t competitive in a Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Mahomes garnered 18 of 26 votes on this question a year ago, and he was the only player who got more than two votes.<\/p>\n
While it appears Mahomes has welcomed Allen, Burrow and Jackson into his elite QB tier, one voter raised a fair point.<\/p>\n
\u201cMahomes is just so talented, and he keeps doing it with different groups of players,\u201d an executive said. \u201cThey keep turning over their skill players.\u201d<\/p>\n
Jackson was a first-team All-Pro last season and nearly corralled his third MVP award.<\/p>\n
“It’s hard to go away from the uniqueness of Lamar Jackson and the things he does in their offense,\u201d a head coach said. \u201cIt’s the dual threat that makes them so fun and unique.”<\/p>\n
Another Jackson voter put it simply: \u201cBest player on the best roster.\u201d<\/p>\n
(Note: Voters were asked to consider age and contracts.)<\/p>\n
This was fun because it forced voters to narrow down their team-building priorities. It wasn\u2019t necessarily as simple as finding the three best quarterbacks and moving on from there, as the flurry of votes for the 2024 class would show.<\/p>\n
Mahomes earned 25 of 27 votes on this question last year, with Allen finishing fourth with 10 votes, so the reigning MVP flipped the tally accordingly.<\/p>\n
Daniels\u2019 popularity was also noteworthy after his extraordinary rookie season. However, it\u2019s worth noting Stroud was in a similar boat in last year\u2019s survey, finishing second with 16 votes before crashing back to earth. Daniels has plenty to prove.<\/p>\n
“I need to see more from Jayden Daniels,\u201d one of his voters said, \u201cbut that dude is a f\u2014ing freak.”<\/p>\n
Fair enough.<\/p>\n
Another standout absence: Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft tied Lamar Jackson with five votes last year but didn\u2019t record any this time. Maye and Nix leapfrogged him, as did Ward, the most recent top selection.<\/p>\n
Of the dozen quarterbacks who received votes, five are on rookie contracts, while Mayfield also represents great value with a mid-tier pact.<\/p>\n
\u201c(Maye has) every physical trait you’d want (plus) the competitiveness,\u201d a Maye voter said. \u201cHe got better over the course of the year. It’s probably too early to put him on that list, but if you’re going young and counting the contracts, I’d take him.\u201d<\/p>\n
A coach added, \u201cMayfield gives you so much out of that contract.\u201d<\/p>\n
Chase led the NFL last season with 127 catches, 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns for the rare triple crown, and he cruised to victory in this category. He only got one out of 26 votes last year on this question, while Barkley was shut out.<\/p>\n
\u201cChase can score literally every time he touches the ball,\u201d a head coach said.<\/p>\n
Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 yards from scrimmage to go along with 15 touchdowns in 2024. While he was running behind one of the best lines in the league, it\u2019s hard to discount Barkley\u2019s production.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey don\u2019t win the Super Bowl without him,\u201d an executive said.<\/p>\n
A surprise consideration? Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers nearly earned a vote before the executive flipped to Chase.<\/p>\n
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson also drew consideration.<\/p>\n
\u201cBijan is approaching this category,\u201d an executive said.<\/p>\n
Garrett ran away with this category for the second consecutive year, even strengthening his perch after drawing 13 of 26 votes in 2024. What\u2019s more, the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year slipped to third in that voting last season, but he still stood out this summer in voters\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n
\u201cYour whole game plan is centered around one guy,\u201d a head coach said. \u201cIt’s a f\u2014ing (nightmare).\u201d<\/p>\n
This was all about the pass rushers. Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, was held out of the voting.<\/p>\n
\u201cSurtain is the best corner in the league,\u201d a coach said. \u201cBut you can throw away from him. You have to game plan for the pass rushers. You have to know where they are, hit them, chip them, double them. They take up so much of your time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Garrett tallied 14 sacks for the second season in a row, and he led the NFL with 22 tackles for loss. He has 102.5 career sacks since 2017 \u2014 second to Watt\u2019s 108 \u2014 including seven consecutive seasons with double digits.<\/p>\n
The Green Bay Packers stumbled upon the fourth player on the list, acquiring Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys<\/a> last week in a shocking blockbuster trade.<\/p>\n \u201cI think he\u2019s the best defensive player in the league, and he just got traded,\u201d an executive said.<\/p>\n There was some positional variety with this question as opposed to last year when quarterbacks monopolized the vote. Then again, Bears QB Caleb Williams ran away with the tally in 2024, so it\u2019s safe to say there were some surprises to follow.<\/p>\n It\u2019s fair to wonder if Hunter would have drawn more attention if the Jaguars had telegraphed their plan for the two-way star. But as it stood, with the likelihood Hunter will primarily play on offense with some rotational work on defense, he finished second.<\/p>\n Carter\u2019s win wasn\u2019t surprising, though. He was frequently viewed as the best player in the draft class, and there\u2019s an obvious gravitational pull toward pass rushers.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019ll have the most opportunities to contribute in terms of playing time, and he\u2019s got a talented line around him that\u2019ll free him up to make plays,\u201d an executive said.<\/p>\n Carter, the No. 3 pick, will help the Giants create pressure with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux around him.<\/p>\n Ward did reasonably well with three votes, especially considering the expectations for the Tennessee Titans aren\u2019t high.<\/p>\n