Every trucker knows when the freight slows down\u2014you don\u2019t need a chart to feel it in your wallet. But if you\u2019re a small carrier trying to make sense of why your phone\u2019s not ringing and your loads are paying pennies, you need to understand what\u2019s coming down the pipe.<\/p>\n
One word: tariffs.<\/p>\n
Yeah, I know. It sounds like some high-level economic policy that\u2019s supposed to only affect Wall Street or politicians yelling on TV. But let me break this down real simple\u2014tariffs choke the pipeline before the freight ever reaches your load board. And the newest waves hitting U.S.\u2013China trade are setting up another freight drought for the back half of 2025.<\/p>\n
Before you dismiss this as more government noise, let\u2019s walk through it. Because if you\u2019re dispatching five trucks, or you\u2019re an owner-op grinding your way toward that second truck, you need to understand how international policy just became your biggest domestic problem.<\/p>\n
A tariff is basically a tax slapped on goods coming into the country. Let\u2019s say Caterpillar is importing parts from China to build excavators in Georgia. If there\u2019s a 50% tariff on those steel parts, their costs go up\u2014a lot. What do they do? Delay the order. Maybe cancel it. Maybe source somewhere else. But here\u2019s what they don\u2019t do: ship it.<\/p>\n
And when it doesn\u2019t get shipped? That\u2019s one less load for you.<\/p>\n
You see, trucking is downstream of everything. When tariffs hit imports, they don\u2019t just hit some factory\u2019s profits\u2014they start shrinking the ocean containers hitting West Coast ports. That means less freight heading to the rail yards. Less freight hitting distribution centers. Less outbound tenders being offered on the load board.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just theory. Let\u2019s get into what the charts are showing us right now.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(Source: SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index. OTVI.USA. The Outbound Tender Volume Index has hovered in the 10,000\u201310,500 range all year, showing that freight demand isn\u2019t growing meaningfully\u2014despite bankruptcies and exits from the market. That\u2019s a red flag for anyone betting on a Q4 volume rescue.)<\/p>\n
The OTVI tracks how much contracted freight is being offered by shippers. Think of this as how many invitations to bid are being sent to carriers. And right now? It\u2019s 10,261.28, trending flat and shaky.<\/p>\n
Now look at the trendline. Notice how it\u2019s been wobbling around the 10,000 mark all year? That\u2019s not enough to support all the capacity out there. And the volatility? That\u2019s tied to inventory pullbacks, tariff fears, and retailers playing defense on every shipment.<\/p>\n
Story continues <\/p>\n
We haven\u2019t seen a reliable bounce since June\u2014and guess what happened then? Retailers rushed some orders forward before tariff escalation kicked in again.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(Source: SONAR Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index. IOTI.USA. Container imports have been on a downward trend since peaking earlier this summer. When ports slow down, truckload freight feels it weeks later. Fewer TEUs hitting the coastlines means fewer loads to chase in the interior.)<\/p>\n
This one\u2019s even more important for forecasting. The IOTI tracks inbound container volumes at U.S. ports. Right now? We\u2019re sitting at 1,822.33, and the curve is trending down hard.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the leading indicator for what kind of freight we\u2019ll have in the next 30\u201360 days. If it\u2019s not coming off the boat, it\u2019s not hitting warehouses. And if it\u2019s not hitting warehouses, it\u2019s not getting tendered. It\u2019s that simple.<\/p>\n
Retailers already told us\u2014they\u2019re expecting 5.6% less imports this year compared to last year. That doesn\u2019t sound huge, until you realize most of those import shipments are LTL and TL opportunities for domestic carriers.<\/p>\n
Now let\u2019s talk about you.<\/p>\n
You\u2019re not a mega carrier. You don\u2019t have 90-day payment terms or a team of analysts watching global trade. You\u2019re a two-truck operation running I-40 and trying to keep your drivers paid and fuel covered.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s why tariffs crush small fleets:<\/p>\n
You rely more on spot market freight, which dries up faster when volumes drop.<\/p>\n
You don\u2019t have long-term contracts, so when retailers cancel shipments, you feel it first.<\/p>\n
Your margins are thin, so one slow week eats into your next week\u2019s plan.<\/p>\n
And guess what else happens during tariff season?<\/p>\n
Now you\u2019re not just fighting low volumes\u2014you\u2019re fighting mega fleets dumping their excess capacity into your space.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s get out of the charts and into real life:<\/p>\n
And here\u2019s the kicker\u2014even if tariffs get reversed, the recovery is slow. Once shippers lose confidence, they shift buying habits. They may look at other countries. They hold back longer.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(Source: SONAR. 5 Year Truckload Average. NTI.USA)<\/p>\n
Yeah, but for how long? And at what rate?<\/p>\n
Right now, some lanes are still moving, but rates are thin and margins are shrinking. That\u2019s not strength\u2014that\u2019s overcapacity surviving off scraps.<\/p>\n
If your revenue per truck per week has dipped below $4,000, and your fuel and insurance haven\u2019t dropped with it, it\u2019s very possible that you are not profitable.<\/p>\n
And let\u2019s not forget: Q4 is supposed to be the peak season. If we\u2019re barely breaking 10,000 OTVI now, where are we going when holiday freight softens?<\/p>\n
The current administration has hinted at renewing or expanding certain tariff packages, including the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. And don\u2019t forget the steel and aluminum tariffs that now cover 400+ product types\u2014a decision that drove up equipment costs and raw materials across the board.<\/p>\n
Even though a few 90-day suspensions have paused tariff hikes, the damage has already been done. Retailers have restructured supply chains. Shippers have delayed launches. And domestic manufacturers are still cautious.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re not here to sugarcoat it. This is a very potential reality:<\/p>\n
If tariffs continue to escalate, we\u2019re looking at Q4 2025 being one of the weakest peak seasons since 2019. OTVI may not break above 10,600. IOTI may fall below 1,700. That puts many small fleets and owner-ops at risk of running below breakeven for 10\u201312 consecutive weeks.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re banking on a holiday rebound, think again.<\/p>\n
Tariffs may sound like someone else\u2019s problem\u2014but they\u2019re already sitting in your backseat, whispering into your fuel gauge.<\/p>\n
And here\u2019s the hard truth: If you don\u2019t adapt, tariffs won\u2019t just squeeze your weeks upcoming. They\u2019ll squeeze you out of the game.<\/p>\n
But if you stay sharp, track the right data, and move like a business owner\u2014not just a driver\u2014you\u2019ll be one of the few that not only survives, but grows when the dust settles.<\/p>\n
This ain\u2019t about politics. This is about being realistic.<\/p>\n
And in trucking, those who position early\u2026 last longest.<\/p>\n
The post You Can\u2019t Haul What Ain\u2019t There \u2013 And Tariffs Just May Have Made It Worse<\/a> appeared first on FreightWaves<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Every trucker knows when the freight slows down\u2014you don\u2019t need a chart to feel it in your wallet.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":126853,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101,15037,80916,80917],"class_list":["post-126852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-international-policy","tag-the-national-truckload-index","tag-volume-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126852\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/126853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}