{"id":132702,"date":"2025-09-04T16:56:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T16:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/132702\/"},"modified":"2025-09-04T16:56:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T16:56:09","slug":"nfl-week-1-picks-against-the-spread-aaron-rodgers-gets-last-laugh-against-the-jets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/132702\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 1 picks against the spread: Aaron Rodgers gets last laugh against the Jets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of Cowboys vs. Eagles<\/a> from 2025 NFL season kickoff.<\/a><\/p>\n

Aaron Rodgers passed on a couple of attempts<\/a> Wednesday, as reporters asked him about going against his former Jets teammates in Sunday\u2019s opener. Rodgers\u2019 two years in New York were a disaster, but now the 41-year-old is starting fresh with an all-in Pittsburgh Steelers team.<\/p>\n

The torn Achilles is healed, and he can still throw the rock. It must have torn up his pride when the Jets chose the accuracy-challenged Justin Fields over him. Even worse, new coach Aaron Glenn had Rodgers fly in to get fired in person, talking for less than 10 minutes.<\/p>\n

In a league full of great quarterbacks and young mysteries, Rodgers is a rare old-timer hanging on for one last shot at glory. My pick in the Steelers-Jets game actually had nothing to do with Rodgers, and though most people got tired of his voice the past few years, I am looking forward to his postgame interview on Sunday \u2026<\/p>\n

\u2026 especially if I am right, and the Steelers win. Because, let\u2019s face it, I wasn\u2019t right too often last year<\/a>. We took up meditation in the offseason and feel good about this year, probably much like Rodgers, but we did listen to some of your ideas and have some help waiting in the wings if we get off to a bad start.<\/p>\n

The first month is always nearly impossible to pick, given the roster turnover, new coaches, shortened preseason and tackle-less practices, so we have a chicken named Nugget warming up in the bullpen to make picks against me next week. Cluck, cluck.<\/p>\n

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.\u00a0Click here<\/a>\u00a0for live odds.<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC<\/p>\n

We\u2019re trying not to overreact to the Micah Parsons trade, but the Cowboys had the league\u2019s best defense in EPA per play the past four years when he was on the field, and the second-worst when he wasn\u2019t. Maybe we should be worried about an Eagles hangover \u2014 and a retooled defense \u2014 but we\u2019re not in Week 1, against a Cowboys team that is soft in the trenches. Nick Sirianni improves to 5-0 in season openers.<\/p>\n

The pick: Eagles\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Sao Paulo, Brazil) | 8:00 p.m. ET Friday, YouTube<\/p>\n

The Chiefs spent a lot of time working on their deep passing game this offseason, according to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, after a career-low 10.7 percent of Patrick Mahomes\u2019 pass attempts went for 20 yards or more. Mahomes will have more time to throw thanks to 31 teams sleeping and letting tackle Josh Simmons fall to the Chiefs in the draft.<\/p>\n

Kansas City will be missing receiver Rashee Rice for six weeks, but Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown should make out just fine against a Chargers defense that allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns on passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield last season, according to TruMedia. The Chargers also sustained the biggest preseason injury in the league with the loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater<\/a>. The Chiefs bounce back from an ugly Super Bowl and start their march toward another one.<\/p>\n

The pick: Chiefs\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

For how many teams throw around the \u201cculture\u201d word, the Buccaneers actually have one, and that should be enough to overcome some early injuries at receiver and on the offensive line to win on the road. Disclaimer: There is no value with this line, and the Falcons did sweep the Buccaneers last year, with Kirk Cousins throwing for 785 yards, so do with that whatever you will.<\/p>\n

The pick: Buccaneers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Why isn\u2019t Kevin Stefanski on the hot seat? He gets a pass because the owners keep making mistakes? The Bengals always get off to a slow start (Zac Taylor is 1-5 in season openers \u2014 wait, why isn\u2019t he on the hot seat?), gave all their money to two receivers and ignored the defense again before giving Trey Hendrickson a raise in 2025<\/a> \u2026 and are almost a touchdown favorite on the road. Give me the underrated genius Stefanski, fresh-legs Joe Flacco and my first sucker bet of the season.<\/p>\n

The pick: Browns\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Dolphins actually complained about other teams\u2019 physicality<\/a> in scrimmages. That\u2019s pretty soft, but hey, they have to protect Tua Tagovailoa at all costs. He throws a TD to old friend Tyreek Hill here. After scoring 13 touchdowns (on 27 catches) on go routes in 2022 and \u201923, Hill had zero (on four catches) last season. The Colts allowed a whopping 33 yards per reception on go routes in 2024, second most in the NFL. The Dolphins\u2019 rebuilt offensive and defensive lines do enough to help hand the Colts their first loss of many in the Daniel Jones era.<\/p>\n

The pick: Dolphins\u00a0<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s assume Liam Coen can turn Trevor Lawrence into what everyone thought he could be. Is that going to happen overnight? Nah. The Panthers, meanwhile, have spent a league-high (by a lot) $98 million on their offensive line, which will open up enough holes against a mediocre Jaguars defense and buy Bryce Young enough time to keep this (really) close.<\/p>\n

The pick: Panthers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

Two pretty evenly matched teams with new coaches and a lot of catch phrases. Going deeper, we\u2019ll take Patriots offensive coordinator and former Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels \u2014 look for some designed runs from Drake Maye \u2014 over his old defensive coordinator in Vegas, Patrick Graham. Though the Patriots under 8.5 wins was one of our favorite season-total bets<\/a>, we get the impression that Pete Carroll is not that thrilled with his first Raiders roster. So, his eyesight as he approaches age 74 is still very good.<\/p>\n

The pick: Patriots<\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Saints are really bad, and they drafted an old quarterback in the second round who couldn\u2019t beat out Spencer Rattled (sp). But I don\u2019t want to lay that many points on the road with an unreliable quarterback and pass rush. The Cardinals have reshaped their front seven after giving up 4.6 yards per carry in 2024, and I think there is some potential there, but I will need to see it first.<\/p>\n

The pick: Saints\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

Each team goes against its quarterback from last year, which has to be a big edge for the Steelers. They know Justin Fields\u2019 limitations well, and Mike Tomlin should have a great plan of pressures and spies to ensure Fields doesn\u2019t run wild. The Jets also just lost guard Alijah Vera-Tucker<\/a> to a serious arm injury.<\/p>\n

The pick: Steelers\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Jayden Daniels went 2-0 against the Giants as a rookie, although both games were close. (Greg Fiume \/ Getty Images)New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

There is some real buzz on the Giants after an exciting preseason. A big part of that, Jaxson Dart, will be on the bench backing up Russell Wilson, but the Giants seem to have real difference-makers up front on defense. The Commanders, meanwhile, are due for some regression and already had the NFL\u2019s oldest roster before signing 36-year-old Von Miller. We\u2019re still going against the preseason buzz and rolling with Jayden Daniels and an improved offensive line.<\/p>\n

The pick: Commanders\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

My impression of Cam Ward improved a bit this past month. He showed creativity and poise in the preseason, and every skill player he had in college (except Elijah Arroyo) got cut by NFL teams. There will be growing pains, but the Titans addressed their offensive line and will be able to run the ball, which will help Ward a lot. The Broncos have an excellent defense, and there is no reason Bo Nix can\u2019t improve on last season (we love the addition of Evan Engram), but maybe they have read some of their press clippings. We\u2019ll take the points.<\/p>\n

The pick: Titans\u00a0<\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Brock Purdy is 3-0 in Seattle, and the 49ers know old friend Sam Darnold well enough to keep him in check. Though they very well might establish the run against a rebuilt 49ers defense, the Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback and some question marks at linebacker. They should come up short against Purdy, George Kittle and a re-born Christian McCaffrey.<\/p>\n

The pick: 49ers<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

We\u2019re trying not to overreact to the Micah Parsons trade, but the Packers ranked 21st in pressure rate (29.6 percent) when rushing four or fewer last season. Parsons has the most pressures (335) since entering the NFL in 2021. He\u2019ll also get double-teamed often, making a pretty good supporting cast even better.<\/p>\n

The Lions blitzed the third-most often last season (38 percent), but the Packers handled blitzes well and allowed just a 4.4 percent sack rate (third lowest). We have the Lions overcoming their coordinator changes and a pretty big OL shakeup to make the Super Bowl, but they will also have to overcome an 0-1 start.<\/p>\n

The pick: Packers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

We\u2019re high on C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins and the Texans\u2019 defense this season. Their running back situation is a mess without Joe Mixon, but guys off the street can run for 4 yards per carry if the scheme is right. The Rams overachieved last season, and their QB gets epidurals.<\/p>\n

The pick: Texans\u00a0<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n

The Bills have an easy schedule after this tilt, so a loss here wouldn\u2019t mean too much. Plus, receiver Khalil Shakir might be out. The Ravens, on the other hand, have probably been talking about avenging their playoff loss in Buffalo all offseason, and they have an under-the-radar addition who could be a game-changer. You still have time to get down on pass rusher Mike Green to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 12-1. You\u2019re welcome.<\/p>\n

The pick: Ravens<\/p>\n

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n

Who knows? It\u2019s J.J. McCarthy\u2019s first start at QB, on the road, against former Lions guru Ben Johnson, who is making his head-coaching debut. The Vikings addressed their offensive line issues, which probably has Darnold shaking his head. The new Bears coach, meanwhile, has been feeding his offense through a fire hose to a starving Caleb Williams, and I think it\u2019s safe to expect a few plays where Williams holds the ball too long and bad things happen. Plus, while the Vikings have maybe the best staff in the league, who knows if the mild-mannered Johnson will even be a good head coach?<\/p>\n

The pick: Vikings\u00a0<\/p>\n

Best bets: The Chiefs, Steelers, Texans and Vikings all get road wins to start the season, while the Commanders remind everyone they have one of the faces of the league in Daniels and cruise at home over the Giants.<\/p>\n

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Panthers +155 on the moneyline, as Dave Canales wins the battle of former Buccaneers offensive coordinators.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u00a0TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.\u00a0<\/p>\n

(Photo: Joe Sargent \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of Cowboys vs. Eagles from 2025 NFL season kickoff. Aaron Rodgers passed on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":132703,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[1829,1327,8849,1807,3687,8850,1822,1799,1816,7820,1810,1804,4058,3686,1811,1236,1812,6337,1820,1322,8851,1815,1814,977,5702,349,1239,1321,560,8852,99,2208,1824,8853,3851],"class_list":["post-132702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=132702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/132703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=132702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=132702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=132702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}