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\n President Donald Trump has promised his high tariffs will inspire an American manufacturing renaissance.\n <\/p>\n
\n Yet so far his controversial experiment has failed to inspire a jobs boom. Not only is hiring weak<\/a>, but the industries most exposed to tariffs have been shedding workers<\/a> \u2013 exactly the opposite of the intended outcome.\n <\/p>\n \n Job growth in tariff-impacted sectors including manufacturing, construction and transportation turned negative shortly after Trump started his trade war this spring, according to a new analysis<\/a> by Apollo Global chief economist Torsten Slok.\n <\/p>\n \n Slok\u2019s research, based on a three-month moving average of Bureau of Labor Statistics data on employment, shows that while tariff-impacted sectors had moments of job loss in recent years, this is the first time payroll growth is negative over a period of several months.\n <\/p>\n \n Employment in industries not affected by tariffs continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace than before the trade war.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe tariff impact on hiring is now undeniable. The manufacturing renaissance, the hiring boom, is just not happening,\u201d Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told CNN.\n <\/p>\n \n Manufacturing employment has declined four months in a row<\/a>, according to the August jobs report<\/a> released last Friday. The US manufacturing industry has 78,000 fewer jobs<\/a> than it did a year ago, BLS data shows.\n <\/p>\n \n Of course, tariffs were never going to dramatically increase manufacturing jobs overnight. It\u2019s too early to say how the strategy will play out in the long run.\n <\/p>\n \n Still, some economists say the administration\u2019s chaotic trade strategy is backfiring in at least two ways.\n <\/p>\n \n First, it has caused enormous uncertainty that has \u201cparalyzed\u201d manufacturers <\/a>and other companies in tariff-exposed industries, causing them to pull back on hiring.\n <\/p>\n \n Secondly, tariff hikes on steel, aluminum, copper and other key inputs have raised prices for the same US manufacturers that are supposed to be benefiting from the trade agenda.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIt turns out the community of economists were correct that launching a trade war would result in slower growth and few jobs. That\u2019s what is happening,\u201d Brusuelas said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe Trump administration has embarked on the most aggressive pro-growth economic agenda in modern history, and our policies of tax cuts and rapid deregulation have already yielded trillions in historic investment commitments to make and hire in America,\u201d White House Spokesman Kush Desai said.\n <\/p>\n \n The job loss in tariff-exposed industries has contributed to a broader slowdown in hiring across the US economy.<\/a>\n <\/p>\n \n The pace of US job growth has slowed to just 29,000 over the past three months, down sharply from 105,000 during the prior three-month period, according to JPMorgan research. The unemployment rate remains low, but it has edged up from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in August \u2013 the highest since late 2021.\n <\/p>\n Losing confidence in landing a job<\/p>\n \n Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of getting a new job.\n <\/p>\n \n Consumers believe there\u2019s just a 45% chance of finding a new job if they currently don\u2019t have one, down from 51% in July, according to survey data<\/a> released Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.\n <\/p>\n \n It\u2019s the lowest reading since the survey launched in 2013 and much lower than readings during much of Trump\u2019s first term in office. The NY Fed said the drop in expectations of finding a new job was \u201cbroad-based across age, education and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Trump officials have dismissed the recent string of concerning economic reports, including Friday\u2019s jobs report, and questioned their accuracy.\n <\/p>\n
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