{"id":144931,"date":"2025-09-09T20:49:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T20:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/144931\/"},"modified":"2025-09-09T20:49:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T20:49:08","slug":"ag-trade-deficit-hit-another-record-high-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/144931\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag Trade Deficit Hit Another Record High in July"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg\u2019s Gerson Freitas Jr reported<\/a> that \u201cthe US agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAgricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month,\u201d Freitas Jr reported. \u201cThat pushed the sector\u2019s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year, according to data released Monday by the US Department of Agriculture.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"Courtesy of Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit,\u201d Freitas Jr reported. \u201cThat further cements a shift that has been building since the president\u2019s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe change in fortunes comes as a result of limited capacity to expand crop and livestock production, increased competition overseas and Americans\u2019 growing appetite for imported goods,\u201d Freitas Jr reported. \u201cTrump\u2019s trade wars have also played a role, pushing China \u2014 the world\u2019s largest crop importer \u2014 to rely more heavily on Brazil for its supplies. The US is also processing more of its crops domestically to produce biofuel, reducing exportable surpluses.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe US imported more than $132 billion in agricultural goods in the first seven months of 2025, almost 8% more than a year earlier,\u201d Freitas Jr reported. \u201cMeanwhile, the sector\u2019s exports slid 1.3% to $98.8 billion, according to USDA data.\u201d<\/p>\n

2025 & 2026 Ag Trade Deficits Revised Downward Slightly<\/p>\n

Agri-Pulse\u2019s Philip Brasher reported at the end of August<\/a> that \u201cUSDA\u2019s quarterly trade outlook lowered the projected trade deficit for fiscal 2025 to $47 billion from the $49.5 billion estimated in June. The deficit is projected to drop to $41.5 billion for fiscal 2026, which starts Oct. 1, because U.S. ag imports are expected to fall even more than exports.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe estimated deficit for FY26 would still be higher than FY24\u2019s $32 billion,\u201d Brasher reported. \u201cUSDA raised its estimate for FY25 exports from $170.5 billion to $173 billion, but projected them to decline to $169 billion for FY26. Imports are projected to drop from $220 billion this year to $210.5 billion in FY26. Soybean exports are expected to drop from $21.5 billion in FY25 to $18.3 billion for FY26, down from $24.2 billion in FY24.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSoybean growers are being especially hard hit by Trump\u2019s simmering trade war with China; the Chinese have yet to put in an order for this fall\u2019s soybean crop,\u201d Brasher reported. \u201cERS projects U.S. ag exports to China will drop from $17 billion in FY25 to $9 billion in FY26. As recently as FY24, China imported $25.7 billion worth of U.S. ag commodities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Today I am heading up to Fargo for the @rrfn<\/a> Big Iron Farm Machinery Show. \ud83c\udf31\ud83d\ude9c#Farmers<\/a> in this part of the world are watching the lack of new crop #soybean<\/a> export commitments from China, the impact on bids and basis. With \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3 trade expected to slow, USDA\u2019s latest #agricultural<\/a>\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0haZYbX7Sj<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) September 9, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Lack of Soybean Sales to China Still Hurting Export Numbers<\/p>\n

Fortune\u2019s Dave Smith reported<\/a> that \u201cAmerican soybean farmers are heading into harvest season without a single order from China, historically their largest customer, raising alarm bells about the agricultural sector\u2019s stability and broader implications for the U.S. economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCaleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and a ninth-generation farmer from Kentucky, issued a stark warning about the crisis facing the nation\u2019s 500,000 soybean growers,\u201d Smith reported. \u201c\u2018Right now, we\u2019re in a very dire situation,\u2019 Ragland said in a TikTok video that has drawn national attention to farmers\u2019 plight.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe absence of Chinese orders represents a dramatic departure from normal trading patterns,\u201d Smith reported. \u201cChina typically accounted for over 25% of total U.S. soybean purchases, with roughly one-third of annual sales to the country normally booked by this point in the season. This translates to approximately 8%-9% of the entire U.S. crop that would typically be sold to China by now currently sitting at zero.\u201d<\/p>\n

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture\u2019s Mary Hightower reported<\/a> that \u201cin the U.S. Department of Agriculture\u2019s most recent \u2018Export Sales\u2019 report on Aug. 21, \u2018the U.S. still had no sales of soybeans to China,\u2019 said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the Division of Agriculture. \u2018A year ago, we had already sold them 2.9 million tons by this time.’\u201d<\/p>\n