Carbon emissions from the world\u2019s biggest fossil fuel companies have been directly linked to dozens of deadly heatwaves for the first time, according to a new analysis. The research has been hailed as a \u201cleap forward\u201d in the legal battle to hold big oil accountable for the damages being caused by the climate crisis.<\/p>\n
The research found that the emissions from any one of the 14 biggest companies were by themselves enough to cause more than 50 heatwaves that would otherwise have been virtually impossible. The study shows, in effect, that those emissions caused the heatwaves.<\/p>\n
The carbon pollution from ExxonMobil\u2019s fossil fuels, for example, made 51 heatwaves at least 10,000 times more likely than in an unheated world, the researchers found, as did the emissions from Saudi Aramco.<\/p>\n
Global heating is making heatwaves more frequent and more intense across the globe, contributing to at least 500,000 heat-related deaths<\/a> a year. The searing heatwave<\/a> that struck the Pacific Northwest of the US in 2021 was made almost 3C hotter, for example.<\/p>\n The new research found that the total emissions from the 180 \u201ccarbon major\u201d companies included in the analysis were responsible for about half the increase in intensity, with emissions due to forest destruction making up most of the rest. It also found that the 213 heatwaves studied became 200 times more likely on average from 2010 to 2019 due to the climate crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cBeing able to trace back the contribution of these single [carbon major] emitters and quantify their contribution could be very useful for establishing potential liability,\u201d said Prof Sonia Seneviratne, at ETH Zurich university in Switzerland, a senior author of the new report.<\/p>\n Dr Davide Faranda, a research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and not part of the study team, said: \u201cThis study adds a crucial new step: it connects the dots between specific climate disasters and the companies whose emissions made them possible. This bridge could become a cornerstone for legal and policy action to hold polluters accountable.\u201d<\/p>\n The heatwave that hit the Pacific Northwest of the US in 2021 (Seattle, pictured) was made almost 3C hotter by global heating, the study found. Photograph: Jason Redmond\/Reuters<\/p>\n Cassidy DiPaola, a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign, said: \u201cWe can now point to specific heatwaves and say, \u2018Saudi Aramco<\/a> did this. ExxonMobil did this.\u2019 When their emissions alone are triggering heatwaves that wouldn\u2019t have happened otherwise, we\u2019re talking about real people who died, real crops that failed, and real communities that suffered, all because of decisions made in corporate boardrooms.\u201d<\/p>\n The world\u2019s highest court, the International Court of Justice, ruled in July that failing to prevent climate harm could result in having to pay compensation<\/a>, while a German high court set a legal precedent in May that fossil fuel companies could be held liable<\/a> for their contribution. \u201cHere\u2019s the evidence the courts have been waiting for,\u201d said DiPaola. \u201cThe bill is coming due, and it\u2019s time these polluters pay for the damage they\u2019ve done.\u201d<\/p>\n The research, published in the journal Nature<\/a>, used a type of analysis called attribution. This compares the hotter world today with the world before mass burning of fossil fuels to assess how emissions have driven up temperatures, using weather data and computer models.<\/p>\n The scientists first worked out how much each carbon major\u2019s emissions had pushed up temperatures and then how much these higher temperatures increased the likelihood of heatwaves. Previous research has linked hundreds of individual events <\/a>to global heating, but this study is the first to systematically analyse a series of events.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n The planet’s most important stories. Get all the week’s environment news – the good, the bad and the essential<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n \u201cClimate change has made each of the 213 heatwaves more likely and more intense, and the situation has worsened over time,\u201d said Dr Yann Quilcaille, at ETH Zurich and the lead author of the study.<\/p>\n