{"id":147582,"date":"2025-09-10T22:57:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T22:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/147582\/"},"modified":"2025-09-10T22:57:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T22:57:11","slug":"what-is-the-bond-market-trying-to-tell-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/147582\/","title":{"rendered":"What is the bond market trying to tell us?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The bond market is all about predicting the future<\/a>. And recently, the bond market has been moving. <\/p>\n

Yields are mostly coming down<\/a>, and there\u2019s been volatility in the price of bonds. Seems like the bond market is trying to say something.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cTypically the bond market, and specifically the U.S. Treasury market, is a very good predictor of where the economy is headed,\u201d said Rick Polsinello, a senior market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Investors can buy Treasurys that last three months, two years, 10 years, or 30 years. And if they\u2019re\u00a0going to lock their money up for that amount of time, they need to have an idea of what could affect their investment<\/a> in that amount of time. <\/p>\n

So bond market message number one comes from the near future, a couple years out, where we see the rate of return on Treasurys, AKA yields, falling.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bond market is telling us that it\u2019s expecting the Fed to cut imminently, and the debate has shifted from \u2018Will it cut?\u2019 to \u2018How much will it cut?\u2019\u201d said Steve Laipply, global co-head of bond ETFs at Blackrock.<\/p>\n

The primary thing that affects short-term yields is the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rates.\u00a0So if short-term yields move down it\u2019s because investors think those Fed rates will come down. And weak jobs numbers have made it clear<\/a> the Fed needs to cut rates sooner and faster than a lot of people thought.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Bond market message number two comes from the longer-term Treasurys: 10-year T-notes, 30-year bonds.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe long-end yields have moved down, but by a smaller amount,\u201d said Anders Persson, chief investment officer of Nuveen.<\/p>\n

Something is keeping long-term yields high, and it\u2019s the fact that long-term bond investors have long-term things to worry about \u2014 like inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cInflation is not coming down, expected to come down, you know, to, sort of, the Fed\u2019s 2% target anytime soon,\u201d Persson said.<\/p>\n

Inflation is a bond killer, so if investors think there\u2019s gonna be more of it down the road, they\u2019re gonna demand a higher long term yield.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On top of inflation, investors have to worry about the national debt<\/a>. If the government gets overstretched in the future it may have to pay more to bond investors in the future to borrow.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

\u201cDebts are high, deficits are high, the government continues to accumulate more debt,\u201d said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Investors of today are baking all that uncertainty in.<\/p>\n

Related Topics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The bond market is all about predicting the future. And recently, the bond market has been moving. Yields…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":147583,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[18280,12383,28,9007,112,91347],"class_list":{"0":"post-147582","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-bond-market","9":"tag-bond-yields","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-interest-rates","12":"tag-markets","13":"tag-treasurys"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=147582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147582\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/147583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=147582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=147582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=147582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}