Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession? According to UBS, \u201chard data\u201d from May to July signals a 93% chance of a recession. UBS\u2019 proprietary factor model utilizes the hard data it used to set the odds and consists of non-survey-based metrics, such as employment, consumption, and industrial production.<\/p>\n
Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! <\/a> Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.<\/p>\n The model drifted into negative territory in February and has shown sideways movement since May, which \u201csuggests sustained weakness rather than any new acceleration downward,\u201d said Fortune.<\/p>\n UBS Sees \u201cSoggy Growth\u201d but Stops Short of a Recession Forecast<\/p>\n However, the bank\u2019s economic team isn\u2019t forecasting a recession<\/a> and expects \u201csoggy growth\u201d from the economy before a recovery in 2026. So far, none of the hard data has decelerated in an alarming fashion, a move that has preceded previous recessions.<\/p>\n UBS combined its hard data with credit markets data and the inverted yield curve, which produced an aggregate recession probability of 52% in July, up from 37% in January. The numbers raise concern, but stocks aren\u2019t letting up with the S&P 500 (SPX<\/a>) up by 12% year-to-date.<\/p>\n Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute Economic Calendar<\/a> \u2014 filter by impact, country, and more.<\/p>\n Disclaimer & Disclosure<\/a>Report an Issue<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession? According to UBS, \u201chard data\u201d from May to July…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":150325,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-150324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150324\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}