published in the journal Nature<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u201cMedical events often follow predictable patterns,\u201d said Tomas Fitzgerald, a staff scientist at EMBL\u2019s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI). \u201cOur AI model learns those patterns and can forecast future health outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n
The tool works by assessing the probability of whether \u2013 and when \u2013 someone may develop diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, respiratory disease and many other disorders.<\/p>\n
Named Delphi-2M, it looks for \u201cmedical events\u201d in a patient\u2019s history, such as when illnesses were diagnosed, together with lifestyle factors such as whether they are or were obese, smoked or drank alcohol, plus their age and sex.<\/p>\n
The tool also looks at anonymised patient record data to predict what might happen over the next decade and beyond.<\/p>\n
The tool was trained and tested on anonymised patient data from 400,000 people in the UK Biobank study and 1.9 million patients in the Danish national patient registry.<\/p>\n
Health risks are expressed as rates over time, similar to forecasting a 70% chance of rain at the weekend.<\/p>\n
Ewan Birney, the EMBL interim executive director, said patients might be able to benefit from the tool within the next few years.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou walk into the doctor\u2019s surgery and the clinician is very used to using these tools, and they are able to say: \u2018Here\u2019s four major risks that are in your future and here\u2019s two things you could do to really change that.\u2019<\/p>\n
\u201cI suspect everyone will be told to lose weight, and if you smoke you will be told to stop smoking \u2013 and that will be in your data so that advice isn\u2019t going to change remarkably \u2013 but for some diseases I think there will be some very specific things. That\u2019s the future we want to create.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the advantage of the new AI tool over existing ones \u2013 such as the Qrisk method of calculating risk of having a heart attack or stroke over the next decade \u2013 was \u201cwe can do all diseases at once and over a long time period. That is the thing that single disease models can\u2019t do.\u201d<\/p>\n
The team said: \u201cDelphi-2M predicts the rates of more than 1,000 diseases, conditional on each individual\u2019s past disease history, with accuracy comparable to that of existing single-disease models.<\/p>\n
\u201cDelphi-2M\u2019s generative nature also enables sampling of synthetic future health trajectories, providing meaningful estimates of potential disease burden for up to 20 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Prof Moritz Gerstung, the head of the division of AI in oncology at the German Cancer<\/a> Research Centre, said: \u201cThis is the beginning of a new way to understand human health and disease progression.<\/p>\n\u201cGenerative models such as ours could one day help personalise care and anticipate healthcare needs at scale.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Scientists have developed a new artificial intelligence tool that can predict your personal risk of more than 1,000…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":163451,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[182,181,507,74],"class_list":{"0":"post-163450","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/163451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}