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A serious lack of effective early warning systems is leaving countries vulnerable to climate-induced hunger<\/a>, according to new research published by one of the world\u2019s leading think tanks. <\/p>\n Early warning systems are key to responding to disasters \u2013 including, for example, via text message or radio alert \u2013 as well as planning. With the climate crisis driving ever more extreme weather events<\/a>, these systems are expected to play an ever more important role. <\/p>\n The new research by Chatham House, which has been shared exclusively with The Independent, finds that food security<\/a> is not being sufficiently factored into these systems, posing a major threat to vulnerable communities across the world. <\/p>\n Dealing with the problem should be seen as critical, given the \u201cnever-before-experienced blend of risks to global food security\u201d that has resulted from a combination of high temperature records<\/a>, recurring extreme weather, increasing conflict and trade disruptions<\/a>, the authors write. <\/p>\n The research comes after a key global food security report found in July that 8.2 per cent of the world\u2019s population, or some 673 million people, experienced hunger in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people in \u201cfood crisis\u201d has tripled since 2016. <\/p>\n The effects of the global food crisis are felt particularly hard in Africa, where 20 per cent of people, or some 307 million people, faced hunger last year. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n The knock-on effects of events such as Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a>, which disrupted the availability and affordability of food far beyond the war zone, drove record-high prices in some of the world\u2019s poorest countries. But systems are not effectively in place to deal with such far-reaching effects.<\/p>\n Droughts also regularly do not have well-designed responses, in comparison to more immediate crises like floods, the researchers say. <\/p>\n In Bangladesh<\/a>, the authors highlight that while increasingly destructive annual monsoon seasons are being documented, the information that farming communities receive tends to be patchy, with little information on how extreme weather patterns might impact their harvest patterns or the salinity of their soils. <\/p>\n In Senegal<\/a>, around a quarter of people are believed to be food insecure, with households typically spending more than 50 per cent of their income on food. Hazards faced by farming communities include drought, wildfires and locusts \u2013 but current national early warning systems are not sufficiently capturing either the triggers or the impacts of these events, the authors warn.<\/p>\n \u201cThe global risk landscape is increasingly complicated, because of both increasing environmental threats, and how threats are interacting with one another \u2013 but the food security element tends to be an afterthought,\u201d report author Richard King told The Independent. <\/p>\n \u201cThe way that risks are propagating and affecting people is starting to develop in slightly unforeseen ways and with greater frequency, and the current early warning system landscape is not well equipped to deal with it.\u201d<\/p>\n Even before more complicated monitoring and responses to food shocks are accounted for, the world is severely lacking in effective early warning systems.<\/p>\n UN data finds that only 108 countries \u2013 or 55 per cent of the total \u2013 have effective \u201cmulti-hazard early warning systems\u201d capable of responding comprehensively to extreme events and their aftermath. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n When food crises are more effectively managed, it can make a huge impact. The UN\u2019s World Food Programme (WFP), for example, has a programme it calls \u201canticipatory action\u201d, which has become a core part of how it approaches climate-driven food shocks. First launched in 2015, it is now operational in 24 countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean \u2013 with the idea being that you support people to stay put in their communities, rather than see them forced to leave and seek food aid. <\/p>\n In Ethiopia, for example, during the rainy season of February to May this year, around 1 million people received early warning messages and around 150,000 people received cash transfers to support them in the event of livestock losses in the drought-prone Somali and Oromia regions. They are some of the estimated 19 million Ethiopians who live in such areas.<\/p>\n \u201cWe respond to droughts, floods and cyclones, providing early warning systems, financial support, and land management advice in the days, weeks and sometimes even months ahead of the climate shock, based on the predictability of the information that we have,\u201d says WFP\u2019s Robert Ackatia-Armah.<\/p>\n \u201cThe idea is that we cannot prevent the shock from happening, but we can prevent the humanitarian cost and caseload by intervening in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n The Independent has previously profiled recipients of the programme<\/a>, who described its transformative impact. <\/p>\n