A week-and-a-half ago, before the Seattle Mariners\u2019 Cal Raleigh became just the seventh player to reach the 60 home run mark, a baseball writer with a vote in the American League MVP race made what they thought would be a binding pledge. If Raleigh reached the milestone, the thinking went, that would be enough to pass the Yankees\u2019 Aaron Judge.<\/p>\n
\u201cTo me, if he gets there,\u201d said the voter, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, \u201cit has to be him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Raleigh got there, swatting a pair of homers Wednesday to reach 60. And yet, the voter couldn\u2019t shake the thought of not recognizing what Judge has done to capture what would be his third MVP.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou look at it and can you really deny a player who has the highest batting average, highest on-base percentage, highest slugging percentage, highest OPS and is leading the league in WAR?\u201d the voter said. \u201cEven when I thought there was a threshold and if Raleigh got over it, it\u2019s very tough.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tough was the prevailing sentiment amongst five American League MVP voters \u2014 all of them still undecided \u2014 who were granted anonymity to discuss a race that has become more intriguing. As the final weekend of the baseball season looms, the race seems to have become a choice between stat vs. squat.<\/p>\n
Raleigh, a durable catcher, stands just three homers away from eclipsing the single-season American League record set in 2022 by Judge. That\u2019s despite playing a defensive position that is both a mental and physical drain \u2014 a consideration that seems to be resonating with voters.<\/p>\n
\ufeff<\/p>\n
But Judge, the Yankees\u2019 stellar outfielder, spent this season deepening an already impressive track record of offensive performance. He has 51 homers and 109 RBI, with a league-best 1.140 OPS, to go along with an average of .330.<\/p>\n
The last would add yet another notable accomplishment for Judge, who is at no risk of getting caught: American League batting champion.<\/p>\n
\u201cOf all the votes I\u2019ve been involved in, this one is by far the hardest,\u201d said one veteran voter, who expressed relief at having a few more days before ballots are due.<\/p>\n
Both Judge and Raleigh have delivered impact seasons. Both have propelled their respective teams to the postseason. But the 30 voters for the award \u2014 all members of the Baseball Writers\u2019 Association of America \u2014 rank their top 10 players for MVP. They can choose only one for first place.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019ll be sad that one of them doesn\u2019t get recognition,\u201d said the voter who thought that Raleigh reaching 60 homers would be a deciding factor. \u201cBecause they both deserve it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Judge\u2019s most notable statistical advantage is WAR, or wins above replacement. The catch-all metric, though imperfect, arguably measures a player\u2019s value better than any other. Voters in recent years have become increasingly reliant on it to contextualize a player\u2019s contribution.<\/p>\n
Judge has 9.3 WAR this season, according to Baseball-Reference. Raleigh? 7.2. One voter lamented just how much that discrepancy could matter.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think defensive WAR for a catcher can truly calculate value,\u201d the voter said. \u201cHow well is the catcher working with his pitching staff? How many meetings is the catcher in on a daily basis that is detracting from time he could be spending in the batting cage? All these things matter.\u201d<\/p>\n
What\u2019s made Raleigh\u2019s case so unique is how he\u2019s accumulated that win value. Defense has always been the backbone of how a catcher is measured, with offense the separator between good and great. There\u2019s just never been offense like this.<\/p>\n
\u201cHitting 60 homers for a catcher is just outrageous,\u201d the veteran voter said. \u201cWhatever bar guys like Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza created for what was possible for an offensive catcher, this guy has jumped several feet over it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Raleigh\u2019s ability to provide this level of plate production against the backdrop of an already demanding day job, is why at least one voter doesn\u2019t want to let WAR get in the way of this great battle.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn many ways,\u201d they said, \u201cyou can\u2019t quantify what a catcher does for his team.\u201d<\/p>\n
\ufeff<\/p>\n
To a lesser degree, other factors could sway the vote.<\/p>\n
Judge could benefit from playing in the nation\u2019s biggest media market, though that impact wouldn\u2019t come directly from the distribution of the ballots. As with the other regular season awards given by the writers, the voting bloc is made of two members from chapters spread around the league. In this system, New York gets the same number of AL MVP votes as Seattle: two.<\/p>\n
Raleigh could theoretically benefit from voter fatigue. Among the voters polled, however, there are differing views about any actual impact.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think that\u2019s necessarily fair, there is a part of me that thinks this in the back of my head,\u201d one voter said about voter fatigue. \u201cJudge will probably win another two or three MVPs in his career. He is already locked in as an all-time great. Cal Raleigh is never going to have a season like this again. I believe it is possibly a once-in-a-generation season offensively for a catcher.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the voting process can act as a safeguard against the influence of so-called fatigue. Voters typically change awards assignments from year-to-year, so an MVP voter one season might be a Cy Young Award voter the next.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom my perspective, every year is fresh, every year is new,\u201d said one writer, who for the first time in years has an AL MVP vote this season. \u201cYou don\u2019t discredit someone just because they\u2019ve won a couple of years in the past. So, I don\u2019t really buy into that, partially because of the voter turnover.\u201d<\/p>\n
Raleigh\u2019s work behind the plate, more than voter fatigue, seems to carry outsized weight in making the race feel as if it has drawn close.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m leaning toward voting for Raleigh over Judge,\u201d another veteran voter said. \u201cNot because Raleigh reached the 60-homer mark, but because he has put up monster power numbers, with considerably more homers and RBIs than Judge, while playing perhaps the most physically demanding position in all of sports.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd it\u2019s not like Raleigh has caught half of his team\u2019s games; he\u2019s made 120 starts behind the plate, guiding a pitching staff that ranks 10th in MLB with a 3.87 ERA and dealing with all the bumps and bruises that come with the job.\u201d<\/p>\n