We make a lot of predictions in the offseason here at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football.<\/p>\n
Believe it or not, 10 of the 13 FBS teams in Texas are 33 percent of the way done with the 2025 regular season. The three programs that have only played three games \u2013 TCU, Texas A&M, and Houston \u2013 are 25 percent of the way through the regular season. That gives us\u00a0plenty of data points to start analyzing what we got right and what we got wrong over the offseason.<\/p>\n
Here is our “10 Bold Predictions for the 2025 College Football Season” to keep us honest.\u00a0<\/p>\n
WHAT WE GOT RIGHT\u00a0<\/p>\n
1.\u00a0TCU smashing the over, contending in the Big 12:\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Frogs are 3-0 and tied with Arizona State for the second betting favorite in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech. That\u2019s a far cry from the projected 6.5 wins by sportsbooks over the summer. TCU was criminally underrated in the offseason as in-state Big 12 headlines focused on Tech\u2019s roster overhaul and Baylor\u2019s momentum to close last season. What slipped through the cracks is how well the Horned Frogs played to close 2024. They won six of their last seven and the only loss was by three points on the road in Waco.\u00a0<\/p>\n
TCU is the second-best scoring team in the Big 12 and Top 25 in the nation through three games. Josh Hoover leads FBS in passing yards per game. The Frogs plastered North Carolina to start the season and beat SMU by double-digits in Week 3. They only need four more wins to cash the over and that feels like a slam dunk barring injury. Head coach Sonny Dykes said this was his most talented roster but we\u2019re not sure many people believed him. Beat Arizona State on the road this Friday night and people will start taking notice.\u00a0<\/p>\n
2. Houston\u2019s fast start\u00a0<\/p>\n
Houston\u2019s team total was 5.5 by August and we predicted that the Cougars would hit the over by Oct. 18 after they played Arizona at home. That\u2019s because we predicted a 6-1 start for Willie Fritz\u2019s bunch in 2025. They\u2019re halfway to that win total and are 12.5-point favorites on the road against Oregon State in Week 5. That means they should be 4-0 heading into the Oct. 4 contest against Texas Tech. The next two games after that are at Oklahoma State and home to Arizona. We feel pretty good about that 6-1 prediction.\u00a0<\/p>\n
3. North Texas as an American Conference dark horse\u00a0<\/p>\n
One of the 10 predictions was that UTSA or North Texas would play in the American Conference championship. While we\u2019re still a long away from knowing if that prediction will completely hit, North Texas is a legit contender. The Mean Green are 4-0 for the first time since 2018 and are favored this weekend at home against South Alabama. A win puts them at 5-0 for the first time since 1977 and sets up a G5 College Football Playoff eliminator in Denton on Oct. 10 against South Florida. Remember, North Texas doesn\u2019t face Tulane or Memphis in the regular season and gets USF, Navy and UTSA at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n
WHAT WE GOT WRONG\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
1. Longhorns win the natty\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sure, it is still possible for Texas to win the national championship. The Horns are 3-1 and haven\u2019t started SEC play yet. They\u2019re still ranked in the Top 10 and the defense is as advertised. But can anyone not blinded by burnt orange-tinted sunglasses still realistically view this team as a national championship contender? If so, that says more about the field than it does Texas.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Arch Manning and the offense have been so bad that winning 10 games and reaching the CFP feels like a longshot. They still play Oklahoma in Dallas, Georgia in Athens, and close with a surging Texas A&M squad that isn\u2019t struggling to score. I think it is more likely that Steve Sarkisian\u2019s team wins fewer than nine games than it does that they win 10 or more.\u00a0<\/p>\n
2. Marcel Reed and the Aggies passing attack\u00a0<\/p>\n
I wrote in articles and said on numerous podcasts that you\u2019re outlook for Texas A&M in 2025 was directly related to your opinion on Marcel Reed the passer. My opinion of his passing ability wasn\u2019t high, so I picked the Aggies to go under the 7.5-win total. Through three games, Reed has been excellent and Texas A&M is trending towards a CFP berth and a possible trip to the SEC championship. Much better than the 7-5 or 8-4 that I foresaw. Reed is 13th\u00a0in the FBS with 289.7 passing yards per game. He was 98th\u00a0last season at 167.8.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Reed should be credited for his improvements, but so should the Aggie staff with surrounding him with better talent. The arrival of Mario Craven and K.C. Concepcion cannot be overstated. Craver is leading the nation with 147.7 receiving yards per game. Concepcion is tied for 19th\u00a0in the FBS with three receiving touchdowns. The Aggies are 16th\u00a0in passing yards per game and it\u2019s been a total team effort.\u00a0<\/p>\n
3. Texas State going 7-5 again<\/p>\n
I feel like the logic was sound. Team that has finished 7-5 in two straight seasons is breaking in a redshirt freshman at quarterback, multiple new starters along the offensive line, and replacing an entire defensive line that left for P4 spots in the transfer portal. Add in some depth concerns at wide receiver and massive question marks at cornerback, and it didn\u2019t feel like predicting the Bobcats to finish 7-5 was that controversial. Turns out, it was. And that it was completely wrong.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Texas State is 3-1 and looking like the best team in the Sun Belt West. Brad Jackson looks like a future star at quarterback and the defense is only allowing .5 more points than it did in 2024 and it\u2019d make sense if that number goes down in Sun Belt play considering the Bobcats have already faced UTSA and Arizona State. A trip to the Sun Belt championship game and a nine or 10-win season feels like a real possibility in San Marcos. That\u2019d be a great jumping off point into the Pac-12 in 2026.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
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