UHERO produces quarterly economic forecasts<\/a>. The most recent report published Friday takes into account the latest economic data and makes predictions for the next year ahead through September 2026.<\/p>\n In Hawai\u02bbi, tourism is taking a hit from tariffs<\/a> and increasingly confrontational U.S. immigration enforcement. More than 1,200 federal layoffs<\/a> have stalled local job growth. Inflation is set to accelerate as tariffs and inflation push prices higher on imported goods.\u00a0<\/p>\n By 2026, the UHERO report predicts inflation will have hiked up typical household costs for Hawai\u02bbi residents by about $1,400 a year.<\/p>\n \u201cIt feels a little scarier,\u201d UHERO\u2019s executive director, Carl Bonham, said Thursday in a Zoom meeting with reporters ahead of the report\u2019s release. \u201cThere\u2019s just so much overwhelming uncertainty that is clearly impacting businesses, everything from farmers to manufacturers to retailers.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Construction remains the state\u2019s lone economic buoy, propped up by military contracts and major public projects. While rebuilding Maui will create construction jobs for years, Honolulu construction projects in the pipeline \u2014 Aloha Stadium, the downtown expansion of the Skyline rail in Honolulu \u2014 also are expected to require thousands of additional workers.<\/p>\n \u2018Quiet All Over\u2019<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a bumpy road for the state\u2019s tourism-dependent economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n This spring, a downturn in visitor spending followed gradual recovery from losses due to the deadly 2023 Maui wildfires that destroyed the island\u2019s Lahaina tourism hub and delivered a blow to the industry. The latest drop-off in visitor spending has reversed some of those post-wildfire tourism gains<\/a>.<\/p>\n Visitor arrivals plummeted 8% between April and July, according to the UHERO report. International markets have shouldered the biggest losses as the demand for a Hawai\u02bbi vacation has weakened in lock step with the economies of the state\u2019s key visitor markets. The number of Canadian visitors to Hawai\u02bbi this year is down 9%.<\/p>\n The state\u2019s tourism-dependent economy will remain depressed for the next several quarters, according to the report, with recovery beginning only when the U.S. economy strengthens. Looking forward, Bonham said he expects the current industry slump will dig deeper and last longer than the post-Maui wildfire crash in 2023.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n On Maui, there have been recent creative attempts to lure visitors back, including a partnership between the state, the county, the Hawai\u02bbi Tourism Authority and the Los Angeles Rams<\/a>. In June the NFL team held a weeklong football camp in Wailuku that aimed to uplift a community still reeling from the fires while promoting travel to the island. Southern California is Maui\u2019s most important market.<\/p>\n \u201cYou can\u2019t be the mayor and not be concerned about your visitor industry,\u201d Maui Mayor Richard Bissen said Tuesday during a meeting with Civil Beat editors and reporters. \u201cIt\u2019s our No. 1 industry. And, of course, there are people that need to work. People need to work so they can provide for their families. So, yeah, it\u2019s not something taken lightly.\u201d<\/p>\n On L\u0101na\u02bbi, a 140-square-mile island west of Maui, luxury tourism buttressed by a pair of Four Seasons resorts serves as the island\u2019s sole economic engine. This summer, however, the island was noticeably quieter. Visitor arrivals on L\u0101na\u02bbi were down 37.5% in June, according to data from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.<\/p>\n Alberta de Jetley, who operates one of two taxi companies on the tiny island, said she typically makes an average of five or six daily trips between the airport, the ferry<\/a> and the island\u2019s two resorts. But recently she said she\u2019s lucky if she books one or two rides a day \u2014 a discouraging two-thirds drop that\u2019s caused her to question the merits of staying in business.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re all doing the best under trying circumstances,\u201d she said. \u201cPeople who come to L\u0101na\u02bbi absolutely love, love, love L\u0101na\u02bbi so it\u2019s really heartwarming that they want to come and really enjoy the experience. But lately it has just been quiet all over.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Hidden Crisis\u2019<\/p>\n Job losses and rising price tags for consumer goods are expected to strain Hawai\u02bbi\u2019s safety net services. So are cuts to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid. A mild recession, the UHERO report concludes, is imminent.<\/p>\n Food banks are already bracing for impact. Roughly 30% of Hawai\u02bbi households face a risk of hunger<\/a> in a state with some of the highest grocery prices in the nation.<\/p>\n Hawai\u02bbi Foodbank President Amy Miller said the need for food assistance is high and rising, with her organization providing food to about 160,000 people a month on O\u02bbahu and Kaua\u02bbi. That\u2019s about twice as many people as the state\u2019s largest food bank served before the Covid pandemic.<\/p>\n The state\u2019s three food banks this year lost $4 million to federal funding cuts. Now the agencies are anticipating cuts to SNAP and Medicaid, which Miller said stand to affect many of the same families that are already struggling.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s like a hidden crisis,\u201d Miller said. \u201cWe\u2019re doing everything that we can to ensure that we can still meet the need, whether it\u2019s raising new funds or stretching the dollars we have so that we don\u2019t have to make compromises about the kinds of food we\u2019re providing.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHawai\u02bbi\u2019s Changing Economy<\/a>\u201d is supported by a grant from the\u00a0Hawai\u02bbi Community Foundation<\/a>\u00a0as part of its work to build equity for all through the CHANGE Framework.<\/p>\n Sign up for our FREE morning newsletter and face each day more informed.<\/p>\n Sign Up<\/p>\n \n Sorry. That’s an invalid e-mail.\n <\/p>\n \n Thanks! We’ll send you a confirmation e-mail shortly.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A weak national economic outlook is driving down post-Maui wildfire recovery gains in Hawai\u02bbi\u2019s economy. A lone bright…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":183455,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-183454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=183454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183454\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/183455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=183454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=183454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=183454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/231109-kf-West-Maui-Tourism-099-1024x683.jpg\")
A signal of distress, the upside-down Hawai\u02bbi State flag flies above the ashes of a Lahaina neighborhood destroyed by the Aug. 8, 2023 fire. (Kevin Fujii\/Civil Beat\/2023)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/HawaiiFoodbank_Ohana_03-1024x683.webp.webp\")
On average, the Hawai\u02bbi Foodbank serves\u00a0nearly 160,000\u00a0people a month \u2014 roughly the same level of demand the nonprofit faced at the height of the Covid pandemic. (Courtesy: Hawai\u02bbi Foodbank\/2024)<\/p>\n![\"Civil](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1753322412_339_logo10.png\"){kind=logo}
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