{"id":185890,"date":"2025-09-27T18:38:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-27T18:38:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/185890\/"},"modified":"2025-09-27T18:38:12","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T18:38:12","slug":"nfl-predictions-picks-for-week-4-slate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/185890\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL predictions, picks for Week 4 slate"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Post\u2019s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday\u2019s and Monday\u2019s\u00a0NFL<\/a>\u00a0Week 4 slate.<\/p>\n

If it weren\u2019t for bad luck, we\u2019d have no luck at all.<\/p>\n

SUNDAY<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to look at this game with rose colored glasses, but let\u2019s keep it in perspective: The Giants only brought in a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks making mid-season first starts went 26-31-1 ATS according to relevant data from 2009-2018. It\u2019s an incredibly tough spot for Big Blue and Jaxson Dart. My model predicts this game\u2019s score to be between 27.83 and 16.97. Big edge to Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings<\/p>\n

We knew that Carson Wentz would be a godsend for the Vikings, but a 48-10 shellacking surprised even the staunchest of Vikings supporters. This is far from my favorite game to target on the slate, but this is another spot to trust my model. Pittsburgh\u2019s defense has underperformed, so I suspect some positive regression on top of the model having this spread much closer, with the projected score at 19.88 to 19.57.<\/p>\n

\"PittsburghAaron Rodgers of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Getty Images<\/p>\n

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n

Injuries galore in this matchup. My model has the Eagles as four-point favorites, but the Buccaneers profile as a solid matchup here. For starters, their run defense has been pristine as the fourth-best unit in yards per carry allowed. They should be able to slow down the Eagles\u2019 run game and make this a close one-possession game.<\/p>\n

Betting on the NFL? <\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints (+16.5) over Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n

I\u2019m 1-2 backing the Saints ATS, so call me a fool if you must for taking them again here. My model has this spread at 10 points, giving me a 7.35 percent edge. Spencer Rattler should be able to hold this one tight in Buffalo. <\/p>\n

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over Washington Commanders<\/p>\n

Michael Penix Jr. was a disaster last week, but so was the Commanders\u2019 defense. In a revenge game for Marcus Mariota, I\u2019ll take the Falcons here as the Commanders lowkey nearly blew that lead to the Raiders. Very quietly, the Falcons have the eighth-ranked defense in DVOA.<\/p>\n

DETROIT LIONS (-9.5) over Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n

Two teams that are riding high with upset wins. Cleveland\u2019s offense just isn\u2019t good enough here as the Joe Flacco-led group has just 4.4 yards per play this year, 29th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions are tied for the second-best at 6.3. Detroit runs away with this one as Cleveland just can\u2019t keep up.<\/p>\n

HOUSTON TEXANS (-7) over Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n

Cam Ward has to win at some point, but it\u2019s not only his fault that they aren\u2019t playing well. The Titans\u2019 defense is flat bad, and that starts at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee is 25th in pass rush win rate and 21st in run stop win rate. Perhaps the Texans get in their own way throughout the weekend, but I won\u2019t be betting on that as the Titans look awful. <\/p>\n

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers<\/p>\n

Both of these teams turned some heads last week. The Panthers shut out the Falcons in a blowout win, while the Patriots fumbled the game away five times against the Steelers. New England clears things up as the Panthers are the third-worst in yards per play, while the Patriots are the third-best in yards per carry allowed.<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS<\/p>\n

The 49ers are getting healthier, but the Jaguars have the fourth-best defense in terms of DVOA. Eventually, they will figure out how to correctly utilize Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. I\u2019ll take the Jags to score a road upset. <\/p>\n

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

Los Angeles royally screwed up last week, but I\u2019m still bullish on them overall. Star cornerback Kenny Moore II is out for this matchup, while Davante Adams is expected to play. The Colts are a well-oiled machine, but the Rams are the only team in football that is top 10 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears (+1) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS<\/p>\n

The Bears\u2019 offense turned a corner last week, and after what we saw the Raiders allow to Marcus Mariota, there\u2019s no reason to think the Bears don\u2019t put it on Las Vegas this weekend. Chicago is ninth-best in yards per play (5.7) while the Raiders are fourth-worst in yards per play allowed. I\u2019ll bite the bullet on the bad Bears defense with the theory that Geno Smith isn\u2019t panning out in Las Vegas.<\/p>\n

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n

The game of the week. My model has this game dead-on against the spread, although the Chiefs are now getting back Xavier Worthy for this game. The Ravens\u2019 secondary has looked awful, and if not for a Travis Kelce drop in the endzone, the Chiefs likely would have won against Philadelphia. Chiefs win outright.<\/p>\n

\"Green Getty Images<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers (-7) over DALLAS COWBOYS<\/p>\n

Revenge is on their mind. The Cowboys\u2019 defense is a nightmare, and that\u2019s music to Jordan Love\u2019s ears as he looks to show he can air it out. My model has the spread at 6.5, but I\u2019ll still back Green Bay as Micah Parsons returns to Jerry World. Dallas is allowing 6.5 yards per play, second-worst. <\/p>\n

MONDAY<\/p>\n

New York Jets (+3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS<\/p>\n

Justin Fields gets an extra day to clear concussion protocol, and I\u2019ll take a shot that he ends up playing. My model projects that this is a low-scoring affair with the Jets 19.10 to Dolphins 19.76. The 2.5 spread is looking valuable if you take that into account. <\/p>\n

DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n

Jake Browning in Denver screams nightmare. The Broncos are the ninth-best in yards per play allowed, while the Bengals are 20th. Denver runs the ball down the Bengals\u2019 throats and wins big on Monday night\u2019s doubleheader. <\/p>\n

LAST WEEK:\u00a04-12<\/p>\n

This season:\u00a014-29<\/p>\n

Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he\u2019s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Post\u2019s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday\u2019s and Monday\u2019s\u00a0NFL\u00a0Week 4 slate. If it weren\u2019t for bad…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":185891,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[2205,349,77653,99,2208,13757],"class_list":["post-185890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-betting","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-sports-picks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185890\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185891"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}