{"id":191501,"date":"2025-09-30T04:49:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T04:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/191501\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T04:49:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T04:49:13","slug":"canadas-economy-could-rebound-in-2026-but-theres-a-catch-report-national","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/191501\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s economy could rebound in 2026 \u2014 but there\u2019s a catch: report – National"},"content":{"rendered":"

Canada\u2019s economy is headed towards a rebound in 2026, a report by Deloitte said on Monday, but there\u2019s one catch \u2014 the country must maintain a key exemption from U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/a><\/p>\n

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Canada is projected to record a GDP growth rate of 1.3 per cent in 2025 and tick higher, to 1.7 per cent, in 2026, Deloitte\u2019s fall 2025 economic outlook said.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t4:24
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDeloitte Canada report shows surprisingly optimistic economic outlook.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\u201cThe big highlight really is that we no longer expect to see the economy slip into recession. That\u2019s not to say we\u2019re not going through a period of very slow growth. We still think the economy will struggle in the latter part of 2025,\u201d said Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada.<\/p>\n

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However, Desjardins said there\u2019s one key caveat.<\/p>\n

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For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.<\/p>\n

Currently, the vast majority of Canada\u2019s exports to the United States are exempt from Trump\u2019s tariffs as long as they comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA).<\/p>\n

Economists believe those exemptions have buffered Canada against the worst impacts of the trade war.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of things have to come together, of course. And one of those is that we maintain the carve-outs we have for our exports to go south of the border tariff-free as long as they comply with the CUSMA agreement. So that\u2019s a pretty broad and big assumption,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The report said the CUSMA exemptions have meant 95 per cent of Canada\u2019s exports to the U.S. face either zero or very low tariffs.<\/p>\n

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\u201cBecause our average tariff will be lower than many of the other trading partners (of the U.S.), that should sow the seeds for Canada\u2019s export markets to do a bit better (next year),\u201d Desjardins said.<\/p>\n

Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n

Economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of a country\u2019s GDP contracting. Canada\u2019s economy hit a \u201clow point\u201d in the second quarter of 2026 \u2014 April, May and June \u2014 but will avoid a technical recession, the Deloitte report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cGrowth will remain weak this year as the groundwork is laid for better prospects in 2026,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

However, it added that sector-specific tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles will \u201ccontinue to impact manufacturing industries.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report also said that Canada\u2019s unemployment rate, which reached a high of 7.1 per cent in August, \u201cis unlikely to move much higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Deloitte\u2019s forecast also calls for \u201ca very gradual recovery in the housing market.\u201d After a slow year, with buyers sitting out, there is likely to be a lot of pent-up demand for housing heading into 2026.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t&copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s economy is headed towards a rebound in 2026, a report by Deloitte said on Monday, but there\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":191502,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,103,12,9086,101],"class_list":{"0":"post-191501","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-donald-trump-tariffs","12":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/191502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}