{"id":206031,"date":"2025-10-07T01:56:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T01:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/206031\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T01:56:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T01:56:09","slug":"big-ais-reliance-on-circular-deals-is-raising-fears-of-a-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/206031\/","title":{"rendered":"Big AI&#8217;s reliance on circular deals is raising fears of a bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"anchor-18c83b\" class=\"body-graf\">Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has characterized his company\u2019s $100 billion OpenAI investment as an opportunity to invest in the next \u201cmultitrillion-dollar\u201d company. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-f86db5\" class=\"body-graf\">Nvidia itself is part of that club, with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/09\/30\/nvidias-market-cap-tops-4point5-trillion-on-ai-infrastructure-deals.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">market valuation of $4.5 trillion<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-66e029\" class=\"body-graf\">Investments like Nvidia\u2019s in OpenAI are predicated on \u201cthe confidence in the revenues\u201d a company can sustain, Huang said on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pE6sw_E9Gh0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u201cBG2\u201d technology podcast<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-418809\" class=\"body-graf\">Nvidia and OpenAI already have an indirect collaboration, through the cloud-computing darling <a href=\"https:\/\/investors.coreweave.com\/news\/news-details\/2025\/CoreWeave-Expands-Agreement-with-OpenAI-by-up-to-6-5B\/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">CoreWeave<\/a>, based in New Jersey, which has a standing agreement with OpenAI to sell Nvidia systems to OpenAI.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-d356d5\" class=\"body-graf\">One of CoreWeave\u2019s biggest investors? Nvidia. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-2ea1d6\" class=\"body-graf\">There are other players in the thicket. Oracle has said it will spend about $40 billion on Nvidia\u2019s chips to power one of OpenAI\u2019s data centers. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-7f31a4\" class=\"body-graf\">Oracle and OpenAI are also collaborating with Japan\u2019s SoftBank group on plans to spend $500 billion on additional data centers in a project known as Stargate.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-79c319\" class=\"body-graf\">Nvidia is a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/stargateprojects.net\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">core technology partner<\/a>\u201d to the Stargate deal. SoftBank owns a $3 billion stake in Nvidia.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-3ec8d5\" class=\"body-graf\">An OpenAI representative referred NBC News to CFO Sarah Friar\u2019s recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2025\/09\/23\/title-tbd.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">comments to CNBC<\/a>, in which she discussed the company\u2019s need for additional computing power. But she did not directly address the \u201ccircular\u201d question. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-8ece92\" class=\"body-graf\">Nvidia and CoreWeave declined to comment. Representatives for Oracle and SoftBank did not respond to requests for comment. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-ef722a\" class=\"body-graf\">To some investment advisers, the Nvidia-OpenAI deal is especially reminiscent of the ones announced in the lead-up to the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-141d44\" class=\"body-graf\">In March of that year, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stock index fell by 77% and wiped out billions of dollars in market value. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-64007a\" class=\"body-graf\">It would take 15 more years before the <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2015-04-years-nasdaq-recoups-losses-dot-com.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Nasdaq returned<\/a> to its March 2000 highs. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-72fc48\" class=\"body-graf\">\u201cThere\u2019s a healthy part and an unhealthy part\u201d to the AI ecosystem, said Gil Luria, a managing director at D.A. Davidson financial group who covers technology.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-0a44c8\" class=\"body-graf\">The unhealthy part has become marked by \u201crelated-party transactions\u201d like the ones involving these companies, he said, which can artificially prop up the value of the firms involved.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-7e8a10\" class=\"body-graf\">If investors decide the ties among the AI giants are getting too close, he said, \u201cthere will be some deflating activity.\u201d That\u2019s Wall Street-speak for a bubble\u2019s bursting. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-05ec71\" class=\"body-graf\">Altman recently sought to calm fears of a looming AI bust, suggesting that it was part of the life cycle of every industry.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-04aa54\" class=\"body-graf\">\u201cBetween the ten years we\u2019ve already been operating and the many decades ahead of us, there will be booms and busts,\u201d Altman said last month during a tour of the massive <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/10\/03\/sam-altman-on-ai-bubble-people-make-some-dumb-capital-allocations-from-time-to-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">data center complex<\/a> that OpenAI is building in Abilene, Texas. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-bcd6e9\" class=\"body-graf\">\u201cPeople will over-invest and lose money, and underinvest and lose a lot of revenue,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-adec63\" class=\"body-graf\">Concerns about AI\u2019s insular web of deals and investments have been outweighed by the near-term potential for nearly unimaginable returns. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-a2c0b6\" class=\"body-graf\">Rather than worry about whether AI is really growing at the pace it appears to be, many investors are instead focused on whether the companies can grow fast enough and make enough profit to justify the mammoth investments being poured into them.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-fec451\" class=\"body-graf\">\u201cFor this whole massive experiment to work without causing large losses, [OpenAI] and its peers now have got to generate huge revenues and profits to pay for all the obligations they are signing up for and at the same time provide a return to its investors,\u201d wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report.<\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-fc1cf9\" class=\"body-graf\">As long as tech-firm valuations keep soaring into the stratosphere and investors keep getting rich, the incentives remain for Wall Street to bless the boom and ignore the doomsday scenarios. <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-1acc9e\" class=\"body-graf\">As of Wednesday, more than 35% of the market value of all the companies in the S&amp;P 500 Index \u2014 more than $20 trillion \u2014 came from just seven tech companies, collectively known on Wall Street as the \u201cMagnificent 7.\u201d <\/p>\n<p id=\"anchor-753d2b\" class=\"endmark body-graf\">And each of them \u2014 Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook parent Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla \u2014 is heavily involved in AI projects. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has characterized his company\u2019s $100 billion OpenAI investment as an opportunity to invest in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":206032,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[191,74],"class_list":{"0":"post-206031","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-computing","8":"tag-computing","9":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=206031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/206032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=206031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=206031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=206031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}