{"id":208914,"date":"2025-10-08T11:02:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T11:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/208914\/"},"modified":"2025-10-08T11:02:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T11:02:08","slug":"defense-to-anchor-exploding-satellite-market-over-next-decade-novaspace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/208914\/","title":{"rendered":"Defense to ‘anchor’ exploding satellite market over next decade: NovaSpace"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON \u2014 The number of satellites projected to be launched over the next decade will dwarf the number of those now on orbit \u2014 but even though the bulk of those new birds will be owned by commercial and civil government entities, it is the defense sector that will \u201canchor\u201d the market through 2034, according to a new analysis<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Market intelligence group NovaSpace\u2019s annual \u201cSatellites to Be Built and Launched\u201d report states, \u201cmore than 43,000 satellites will launch over the next decade, reshaping competition across orbits and applications and fueling a $665 billion market in manufacturing and launch services.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to US Space Command\u2019s public database of objects in orbit, Space.track.org<\/a>, there are now approximately 12,500 active satellites that can be positively identified. Another 4,700 space objects can not be linked to any owner\/operator for a number of technical reasons, and could be active satellites or debris. (SPACECOM\u2019s satellite catalog further does not publish the whereabouts of a number of classified US and other allied national security satellites.) <\/p>\n

NovaSpace projects that five government and commercial mega-constellations in lower orbits \u2014 SpaceX\u2019s Starlink<\/a> and Starshield<\/a>, Amazon\u2019s Kuiper<\/a>, and China\u2019s Qianfan and Guowang networks \u2014 will account for 66 percent of the satellites launched between 2025 and 2034, but by contrast only 11 percent of market value.<\/p>\n

\u201cBudget priorities, meanwhile, sits with defense. Defense remains the market\u2019s economic anchor, capturing 48% of total value despite representing just 9% of satellite volume,\u201d the analysis adds.<\/p>\n

Caleb Henry, research director at Quilty Space, agreed with the report\u2019s analysis about the continued centrality of defense dollars to the global commercial space market.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe business world is quite dynamic, and we\u2019re seeing a sea change where everyone is a defense contractor now,\u201d he told Breaking Defense today.<\/p>\n

The public information released by NovaSpace does not break out projected US market shares or the percentage made up by US Defense Department acquisition. However, the findings regarding global defense spending are somewhat ironic, given DoD\u2019s long-stated aversion<\/a> to serving as an \u201canchor tenant\u201d for the burgeoning US commercial space ecosystem.<\/p>\n

NovaSpace further projects that the market for satellite manufacturing and launch, while robust and growing, will remain largely siloed within nations and\/or regions so that only domestic companies can compete \u2014 or vertically locked into one owner\/operator\u2019s business (i.e., SpaceX launches all of its Starlink birds).<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, the manufacturing and launch market offers significant revenue potential, however, targeting this opportunity will require a nuanced approach. Only 7% of the manufacturing market in value is fully open to any manufacturer and 70% is considered \u2018nationally captive\u2019, with the remainder locked by vertical integration of constellations. To compete here, consideration of strategic partnerships through the supply chain is now a must,\u201d the report states. <\/p>\n

With regard to launch, the report notes that SpaceX likely will continue to hold \u201ca near-monopoly over heavy launch in the West,\u201d and that while other providers are striving to compete, the company\u2019s \u201cStarship promises to profoundly redefine space transportation and the space economy at large.\u201d<\/p>\n

Starship has yet to prove viable, with SpaceX set to launch its 11th test flight of the super-heavy craft, being designed to eventually carry cargo to the Moon and Mars, on Oct. 13<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite that fact, the Pentagon already is considering the potential for Starship for point-to-point delivery<\/a> supplies through suborbital space anywhere on the globe within 90 mins or less, with a firm eye on a future conflict with China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON \u2014 The number of satellites projected to be launched over the next decade will dwarf the number…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":208915,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[4862,119662,119663,79,193,11716,1513,5408,119664,1514],"class_list":["post-208914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-commercial-space","tag-defense-space-sector","tag-novaspace","tag-science","tag-space","tag-space-force","tag-spacex","tag-starlink","tag-starshield","tag-starship"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}