It would be reassuring for markets to hear Jamie Dimon, the leader of America\u2019s biggest bank and a veteran of Wall Street, say he didn\u2019t see a recession coming. Unfortunately, that\u2019s not the case.<\/p>\n
In his decades leading JPMorgan Chase<\/a>, Dimon\u2019s economic opinion has been seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. But those who follow Dimon also know he conducts rigorous stress testing at JPM, making sure the institution can withstand a range of outcomes.<\/p>\n To this end, Dimon isn\u2019t taking a recession off the table for next year\u2014even though GDP at present is tracking upward. According to the latest figures<\/a>, U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n But there are questions outstanding for analysts: Particularly those like Dimon who refrain from falling to the overly bullish or bearish side. Those questions include the impact of tariffs on inflation (if or when those increases truly hit), as well as geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will deliver the returns investors are banking on. <\/p>\n Dimon echoed this caution in an interview this week, saying: \u201cI think [a recession] could happen in 2026\u2014I\u2019m not worried about it, is a different statement. We\u2019ll deal with it, we\u2019ll serve our clients, we\u2019ll navigate through it. A lot of us have been through them before.\u201d<\/p>\n Previously the billionaire banker has warned the American economy is weakening, saying in September<\/a> following a measly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that whether that weakness spills into economic contraction remains to be seen. <\/p>\n He struck a similar tone this week, saying in the conversation with Bloomberg<\/a>: \u201cYou don\u2019t wish it, because you know certain people get hurt,\u201d adding: \u201cHow it all sorts out? We\u2019ll see.\u201d<\/p>\n Dimon\u2019s caution is at odds with some tried-and-trusted indicators. The Sahm Rule indicator<\/a>\u2014which signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the\u00a0national unemployment rate\u00a0is 0.5 percentage points greater than the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months\u2014sits at a comfortable 0.13%, assisted by a relatively stable unemployment rate.<\/p>\n