{"id":213763,"date":"2025-10-10T07:45:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T07:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/213763\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T07:45:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T07:45:10","slug":"is-the-us-economy-shock-proof","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/213763\/","title":{"rendered":"Is The US Economy Shock Proof?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing (Oct. 6, 2025) for institutional investors.<\/p>\n<p>US Economy I: \u2018Resilient\u2019 Is Still the Right\u00a0Word<\/p>\n<p>Since a very short, two-month recession in early 2020, the US economy has continued to grow despite numerous shocks (<a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/tc_20251006_3.png?utm_campaign=Morning%20Briefing&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ueQXcGUtME5Z1VUSF4wvorqY3HSu97na4tNudC4tOqzPk9o6M8Vpyg8SN7EFi9lxzJ9Gbqu3Ej6irJchf_poJEcVekA&amp;_hsmi=2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 3<\/a> below). The pandemic hit the US economy during February 2020 and quickly led to the March and April lockdowns that caused a recession during those two months. When the lockdowns ended, social distancing restrictions continued to weigh on the economy, but it continued to grow nonetheless.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/tc_20251006_3.webp.webp\" class=\"kg-image\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\"  \/>Figure 3<\/p>\n<p>Global supply-chain disruptions hit the US economy hard during 2021 and 2022,\u00a0triggering a big\u00a0spike in US inflation, led by soaring consumer durable goods prices (<a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/tc_20251006_4.png?utm_campaign=Morning%20Briefing&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ueQXcGUtME5Z1VUSF4wvorqY3HSu97na4tNudC4tOqzPk9o6M8Vpyg8SN7EFi9lxzJ9Gbqu3Ej6irJchf_poJEcVekA&amp;_hsmi=2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 4<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/tc_20251006_5.png?utm_campaign=Morning%20Briefing&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ueQXcGUtME5Z1VUSF4wvorqY3HSu97na4tNudC4tOqzPk9o6M8Vpyg8SN7EFi9lxzJ9Gbqu3Ej6irJchf_poJEcVekA&amp;_hsmi=2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 5<\/a>). To combat inflation, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from nearly zero on March 17, 2022 to 5.50% on July 26, 2023 (<a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/tc_20251006_6.png?utm_campaign=Morning%20Briefing&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ueQXcGUtME5Z1VUSF4wvorqY3HSu97na4tNudC4tOqzPk9o6M8Vpyg8SN7EFi9lxzJ9Gbqu3Ej6irJchf_poJEcVekA&amp;_hsmi=2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fig. 6<\/a>). The bond yield jumped from 0.50% on August 4, 2020 to 5.00% on October 19, 2023.<\/p>\n<p>This year, the economy was subjected to Trump\u2019s Tariff Turmoil. And the latest shock is the\u00a0government shutdown that started on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>            This post is for paying subscribers only<br \/>\n            <a class=\"gh-btn\" data-portal=\"signup\" href=\"#\/portal\/signup\" style=\"color:#2e7e74\">Subscribe now<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Already have an account? <a data-portal=\"signin\" href=\"#\/portal\/signin\">Sign in<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing (Oct. 6, 2025) for institutional investors. US Economy I:&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":213764,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-213763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/213764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}