LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) \u2013 This day has made me nervous, I\u2019m not going to lie. This is my first Associated Press Top 25 ballot, and there is no way to keep from looking like an idiot.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re ranking teams we have very little idea about. The goal is to rank them 1 to 25 on how good they are today, not in March. But either way, there are too many unknowns. Who knows how well transfer portal pieces will mesh. Who is out there that we haven\u2019t really thought about that will crash into the national consciousness.<\/p>\n
Can Florida do it again? Can Houston come back and finish the job? Is this Purdue\u2019s year for a Final Four?<\/p>\n
Who really knows. Nobody much knew last year. I take some solace in that.<\/p>\n
Only three teams in the 2024 preseason Top 10 were still in the Top 10 by year\u2019s end. Of the 14 teams that made both polls, the average miss was 7.5 spots. Florida, which won the national title, began the season ranked No. 21.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Kansas, UConn, Baylor and North Carolina all began the season in the Top 10 and finished unranked. The teams that finished 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 all began the season unranked.<\/p>\n
You get the picture.<\/p>\n
For my first poll, I used a little bit of consensus, a little bit of gut feeling, and a double portion of data from Bart Torvik\u2019s ratings, which I have a lot of respect for. I gave weight to teams with more returning players, at least in this early-season look. But in the end, anything really stupid is my own.<\/p>\n
My ballot follows:<\/p>\n
Houston: Three starters back from a team that came *this close* to a national championship. I like Houston\u2019s odds to be in Indianapolis for another Final Four, and their returning core puts them in particularly good position to be tough from the opening game.Purdue: Another team with a heavy returning corps and one of the best coaches in the game. If they were coming off a Final Four season, I\u2019d probably have them No. 1. But they\u2019re not. But let\u2019s face it, the storyline of Purdue getting to a Final Four in Indy is going to be a motivating force in West Lafayette all season.Florida: The team that did win it all a year ago is a legitimate threat to do it again, in large part because of Boogie Fland\u2019s decision to head to Gainesville. Princeton transfer Xavian Lee should be fun to watch, and big man Alex Condon provides an important link to last season\u2019s accomplishment.UConn: The Huskies return three starters, add Georgia transfer Silas Demary and Danny Hurley says he is bringing a renewed commitment to defense.\u00a0Duke: Yeah, I know, Duke returns 0 starters. But they do have Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans back, and added Maliq Brown from Syracuse. But it\u2019s freshmen like Cameron Boozer and his brother Cayden, as well as Dame Sarr and Sebastian Wilkins, that have the Blue Devils this high on the list.St. John\u2019s: Rick Pitino\u2019s only returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a really good one. He wasted no time rebuilding through the portal, adding Bryce Hopkins, Joson Sonon and Oziyah Sellers, and all was right with the world. He\u2019s also got five international players \u2013 but no true point guard. Still, in Rick we trust.Michigan: Dusty May is set to follow up a successful debut season in Ann Arbor with a deep team that returns two starters from last season\u2019s Sweet 16 squad, plus Elliott Caeau, a transfer point guard from North Carolina, and UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, the top-ranked transfer in the nation.BYU: Kevin Young\u2019s 26 wins last season were the most for a first-year coach in school history. He could win more this season, with freshman AJ Dybantsa, the top-ranked recruit in the country, to build around.Kentucky: Mark Pope has Otega Oweh back, and as deep a roster as anyone in the country. He added Denzel Aberdeen from national champion Florida, Mo Dioubate of Alabama and Pittsburgh\u2019s Jaland Lowe. Returnee Brandon Garrison will start the season in the post, but when big man Jayden Quaintance gets healthy, look out.Louisville: Pat Kelsey had some bad injury luck or his first-year success would\u2019ve even been more stunning. Year 2 will be no let-up. He adds shooting and more shooting in transfers Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State), Isaac McKneely (Virginia) and Ryan Conwell (Xavier), along with a top freshman in Mikel Brown. Glue-guy J\u2019Vonne Hadley returns, as does interior player Kasean Pryor, with Ali Khalifa jumping in after a redshirt season.UCLA: The addition of New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent should have Mick Cronin off and running in Westwood.Texas Tech: Grant McCasland is a great coach. I\u2019d put him in the Top 15 without seeing his roster. But I have seen it, and JT Toppin is an All-American.Alabama: It\u2019s possible I have the Crimson Tide a few spots too low, especially if this is Nate Oats\u2019 best-shooting team.\u00a0Arizona:\u00a0Tommy Lloyd has three starters back, plus high-scoring freshman Brayden Burries.Arkansas: John Calipari has more depth, some solid experience in DJ Wagner and Karter Knox and Billy Richmond, and his usual stacked corps of recruits.Iowa State: A typically good-shooting, tough defensive T.J. Otzelberger team, with four starters who played key roles in Ames last season.Tennessee: I expect Tennessee will finish higher than this ranking, but with a bunch of new pieces to work in early, including Maryland transfer Ja\u2019Kobi Gillespie, may not be there immediately. Freshman Nate Ament will be a handful by season\u2019s end.Illinois: These dudes have more consonants in the starting lineup than any team in America. They\u2019ve got four expected starters whose last name ends with the letter \u201cc.\u201d That\u2019s good enough for me.Kansas: Bill Self returns no starters but has the No. 2 recruit in the nation in Darryn Peterson. He also has former Louisville swingman Tre White as a projected starter, so there is that.Gonzaga: Mark Few returns only one starter, but has some older transfers, like 25-year-old JCUO\/Kansas\/DePaul\/Grand Canyon small forward Tyon Grant-Foster and and 23-year-old Wyoming power forward Graham Ike.Auburn: Love the War Eagles\u2019 roster, and Tahaad Pettiford, but what to make of the Bruce Pearl departure. I dropped them a little bit, but they can fight their way back up.Wisconsin: Greg Gard had the Badgers averaging more than 80 points per game last season and everybody thought hell was freezing over. No, Madison is just that call. But Kamari McGee is back, so expect more of the same.Creighton: Greg McDermott has a couple of starters back from a team that beat Louisville in the NCAA first round last season, has five rotation players back and adds high-scoring Charlotte point guard Nik Graves. Josh Dix, who averaged 14.4 points per game, and who scored 16.7, both transfer from Iowa.Michigan State: This pick is either really smart or really dumb. But, you know, Tom Izzo, Losing Kaleb Glenn to an injury is a blow, but he\u2019s got some talented portal additions and a couple of solid freshmen. That and some duct tape and he\u2019ll be near the top of the Big Ten.North Carolina: It\u2019s a pivotal year for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill. He has plenty of size, and 6-10 freshman Caleb Wilson will need to make an impact early.Quick sips<\/p>\n