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\u201cIts value, 33, is yet another in a string of disappointments,\u201d Lardaro writes.<\/p>\n
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Years ago, I designed the Current Conditions Index for the purpose of gauging Rhode Island\u2019s cyclical economic momentum. Over the years, its track record has exceeded even my wildest expectations, as it leads going into recessions and is coincident with recoveries. The signal it is now providing is clearly one that Rhode Island is currently in a recession that likely began last December. It should be noted that there is no official definition of recessions at the state level,\u201d said Lardaro.<\/p>\n
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\u201cEven the national definition most people believe (two or more consecutive quarters with negative real GDP growth) is not correct. In the present situation, the CCI has been unable to move into the expansion range since last November, its values this year have consistently fallen below the values last year, and done so with largely contraction range values,\u201d Lardaro adds.<\/p>\n
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Single-Unit Home Permits Decline 9.1%<\/p>\n
\u201cNotable weakness, which sadly was not hard to find again this month, came from Benefit Exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, which rose by 30.7 percent. New Claims, which are related to layoffs, increased by 8.8 percent, and Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor indicator that deals with future employment, was flat. Even Government Employment fell, a rare occurrence, driven by declines in federal and state employment,\u201d according to Lardaro.<\/p>\n
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Single-Unit Permits, related to new home construction, declined by 9.1 percent, our Labor Force fell, which actually made our Unemployment Rate look better than it actually is, US Consumer Sentiment also declined at a double-digit rate, and Private Service Producing Employment barely managed to rise (+0.6%),\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
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The bright spots were retail sales and two indicators relating to manufacturing \u2014 wages and hours.<\/p>\n
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