America is entering an era of \u201cjobless growth,\u201d according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. That\u2019s not ideal for those of us who are job-reliant. It\u2019s especially not great for those who don\u2019t currently have a job, whether they have been on the market for a while or are fresh out of college and looking to get their start. But hey, at least the capital holders will still get all that growth without those pesky payroll costs!<\/p>\n
The memo, written by economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei and spotted by Fortune<\/a>, warns that the current market of \u201cmodest job growth alongside robust GDP growth\u201d is likely the new normal going forward. Most of that \u201crobust\u201d GDP growth will come from businesses adopting artificial intelligence, according to the analysts, with \u201conly a modest contribution from labor supply growth due to population aging and lower immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n Of course, there are still plenty of people entering the job market, but they\u2019re having a rough go of things. Thus far, there has been limited evidence to suggest that, despite the hype, AI has actually displaced many workers<\/a>. In fact, it\u2019s likely that Trump administration policies, including tariffs, have had more of a chilling effect on hiring<\/a> broadly. But there are signs that the adoption of the technology is slowing hiring, especially for entry-level positions. Job postings for those roles<\/a> are way down from last year, so while people aren\u2019t necessarily being pushed out of existing positions, the market has pulled up the ladder<\/a> for people trying to get in on the lower rungs.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t just suck, but is extremely short-sighted. The thing about senior roles is that you need people with experience to fill them. If the entire economy is just cutting off the pipeline for developing people who are eventually capable of filling those roles, there\u2019s going to be a bigger problem down the road when those who fill senior roles move on or age out. You don\u2019t get senior staff without first having junior staff, but maybe all these companies are just betting that AI will continue to improve to the point where they don\u2019t need to bother with humans at all.<\/p>\n So things are bad now, but the economists say we really don\u2019t understand just how bad it is yet.\u00a0\u201cHistory also suggests that the full consequences of AI for the labor market might not become apparent until a recession hits,\u201d they wrote. Per Deutsche Bank researchers, the only thing currently keeping the American economy out of a recession<\/a> is AI-related spending, which, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman<\/a>, accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n