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A new study tackles that question head-on, and the answer is yes \u2013 but only if we manage the risk wisely and stop viewing nature and technology as separate options.<\/p>\n
The risks behind carbon removal<\/p>\n
Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for centuries, heating the planet. The more CO\u2082 we emit, the more Earth warms. <\/p>\n
Removing carbon from the air is one way to cool things down \u2013 but it\u2019s not enough to just remove it. We also need to make sure it stays out of the atmosphere for the long haul.<\/p>\n
Right now, there are two main types of carbon removal<\/a> projects. One is nature-based \u2013 planting trees, restoring forests, creating biochar from plants, and storing it in soil. <\/p>\n The other is tech-based \u2013 machines that pull CO\u2082 from the air and inject it deep underground.<\/p>\n Nature-based projects are cheaper and more common, but they\u2019re risky. Forests can burn. Land use can change. That carbon can come right back into the atmosphere. <\/p>\n Tech-based solutions are expensive and slow to grow, but they\u2019re better at locking carbon away permanently.<\/p>\n That trade-off has left climate planners with a tough call: Save money and go with trees? Or pay more for machines that are slow to scale?<\/p>\n Smarter carbon planning for centuries<\/p>\n Researchers from the University of Cambridge<\/a> came up with a new way to think about this. They created a method to assess whether portfolios of carbon removal projects can actually help keep the planet cool -not just for the next few decades, but for hundreds of years.<\/p>\n Instead of assuming all carbon removal is equal, they looked at the risks. <\/p>\n How likely is it that carbon stored by trees or soil will escape? How permanent is tech-based carbon storage? And how much extra CO\u2082 do we need to remove now to make up for future losses?<\/p>\n Their model lets companies and governments figure out how much of a \u201cbuffer\u201d to add. <\/p>\n For example, if you\u2019re using mostly nature-based methods, the researchers say you should store about two tons of carbon for every one tons you emit. That cushion helps account for future leaks or reversals.<\/p>\n But if your portfolio relies too heavily on risky options \u2013 like forests in fire-prone areas \u2013 you may need a massive buffer: up to nine tons removed for every one ton emitted. That\u2019s a big ask. <\/p>\n The authors warn that relying too much on these high-risk projects could backfire because of the cost and uncertainty involved.<\/p>\n What net zero really requires<\/p>\n \u201cTech giants like Microsoft and Meta are collectively spending billions on carbon removal portfolios to offset their growing carbon footprints<\/a>,\u201d said Dr. Conor Hickey, the study\u2019s lead author.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile companies and countries agree that increased investment in carbon removal is essential to reach net-zero targets, they also want to understand whether carbon removal schemes can help stabilize global temperatures<\/a> over the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s what this study helps solve. \u201cOur risk management approach offers one of the first reliable measures for portfolio managers targeting long-term temperature stabilization,\u201d Hickey said. <\/p>\n \u201cIt shows that nature-based carbon storage such as tree planting has a bigger role to play than critics assume when used as part of a diversified carbon removal portfolio.\u201d<\/p>\n But not all experts think nature-based solutions can carry the load forever. \u201cDurable net zero means geological net zero,\u201d said Professor Myles Allen, a co-author of the study. <\/p>\n \u201cTo stabilize climate in line with the Paris Agreement<\/a> goals, anyone still relying on offsets must plan to shift entirely to carbon dioxide removal with geological storage by the middle of the century.\u201d<\/p>\n The case for hybrid carbon plans<\/p>\n This new research pushes back against the idea that only permanent tech-based carbon storage can work. It shows that a mix of methods can still help \u2013 if the risks are managed correctly and the right buffers are in place.<\/p>\n \u201cRemoving more carbon now can effectively cover carbon storage risk for centuries, and this can be done with a mix of nature and tech, as long as the right buffers are built in,\u201d Hickey said.<\/p>\n \u201cPortfolios can combine expensive permanent solutions like DAC with lower-cost nature-based options like planting trees<\/a> \u2013 matching society\u2019s willingness to pay while still contributing to temperature stabilization goals.\u201d<\/p>\n The team also designed their method to fit how real-world markets work today. <\/p>\n \u201cOur approach enables strategic carbon storage choices based on current availability, while targeting long-term temperature stabilization. It provides buyer flexibility while valuing lower-risk storage options, something today\u2019s market lacks,\u201d Hickey said.<\/p>\n Thinking centuries ahead<\/p>\n The U.K. and the E.U. now require that carbon removal projects meet a minimum permanence of 200 years. <\/p>\n And by 2050, the UK plans to reach net zero with a heavy focus on geological storage of CO\u2082 \u2013 deep underground.<\/p>\n That means nature-based projects won\u2019t disappear. But they\u2019ll need backup from tech-based methods. And any serious carbon plan will need to start thinking hundreds of years ahead.<\/p>\n This study shows that\u2019s possible. But only if we stop pretending that short-term offsets are enough \u2013 and start building portfolios that actually work in the long run.<\/p>\n The full study was published in the journal Joule<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter<\/a> for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.\u00a0<\/p>\n Check us out on EarthSnap<\/a>, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls<\/a> and Earth.com.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Carbon is at the center of nearly every promise to slow climate change. Corporations say they\u2019ll be \u201cnet-zero\u201d…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":235450,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[192,79],"class_list":{"0":"post-235449","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=235449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/235450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=235449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=235449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=235449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}