The U.S. immigration crackdown will cause net job losses in the millions and will lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third over the next decade, a new study estimates.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration\u2019s policies aimed at legal and illegal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, the National Foundation for American Policy\u2019s study<\/a> released Friday found. People entering the workforce won\u2019t fully make up for the job losses, leading to a net reduction in the labor force by a projected 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWith the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,\u201d the think tank, which focuses on trade and immigration, said.<\/p>\n In fact, immigrant workers were responsible for 84.7% of the labor force growth in America between 2019 and 2024, according to the report.\u00a0<\/p>\n The study takes into account many of Trump\u2019s far-reaching immigration policies for those eligible to work in the country, including reducing and suspending refugee admissions<\/a>, a travel ban<\/a> on 19 countries, ending Temporary Protected Status<\/a>, and prohibiting international students from working on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT after completing their coursework<\/a>. The analysis does not account for a new policy that requires U.S. companies to shell out $100,000 in one-time fees<\/a> for new H-1B visas.<\/p>\n Labor reduction<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s immigration crackdown is already having an impact on the labor force.<\/p>\n The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey shows a decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers since the start of the Trump administration in January through August, according to the report.<\/p>\n And of the 6.8 million fewer projected workers in the U.S. labor force by 2028, 2.8 million would be due to changes in legal immigration policies, while 4 million would result from policies on illegal immigration, the study said<\/p>\n At the same time, it doesn\u2019t look as though U.S.-born workers are entering the workforce en masse as foreign-born workers exit, the report said. Instead, the labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers aged 16 and older has ticked lower to 61.6% in August from 61.7% last year, according to the report.<\/p>\n Labor economist and senior fellow at NFAP Mark Regets, said in the report it\u2019s \u201cwrong\u201d to assume a decline in immigration helps U.S. workers when job growth slows.<\/p>\n \u201cImmigrants both create demand for the goods and services produced by U.S.-born workers and work alongside them in ways that increase productivity for both groups,\u201d Regrets said. \u201cWhile it is just one factor, we shouldn\u2019t be surprised that opportunities for U.S.-born workers are falling at the same time an estimated one million fewer immigrants may be in the labor force.\u201d<\/p>\n But the White House says there\u2019s a large pool of available U.S.-born workers.<\/p>\n \u201cOver one in ten young adults<\/a> in America are neither employed, in higher education, nor pursuing some sort of vocational training.\u201d White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fortune in a statement, referencing a July 2024 CNBC article. \u201cThere is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump\u2019s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration\u2019s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.\u201d<\/p>\n Economic fallout<\/p>\n Previous reports have warned Trumps\u2019 immigration policies also threaten negative economic consequences.<\/p>\n In September, the Congressional Budget Office projected<\/a> 290,000 immigrants will be removed from the country between 2026 and 2029, which may create a labor shortage and drive up inflation<\/a>.<\/p>\n And according to the NFAP study, Trump\u2019s immigration policies will lower the projected average annual economic growth rate to 1.3% from 1.8% between fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2035.\u00a0<\/p>\n There are also ramifications for the agriculture<\/a> industry and food production. The Labor Department admitted earlier this month in a filing in the Federal Register<\/a> that Trump\u2019s immigration crackdown risked a \u201clabor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s not the only sector feeling the talent squeeze.<\/p>\n The $100,000 one-time fee for workers applying for new H-1B visas is expected to disrupt companies<\/a> including Amazon<\/a>, Microsoft<\/a> and Meta<\/a>, since they heavily recruit workers under this status.\u00a0<\/p>\n