{"id":245065,"date":"2025-10-23T03:13:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T03:13:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/245065\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T03:13:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T03:13:07","slug":"china-car-sales-to-slump-in-2026-if-beijing-scraps-subsidies-jpmorgan-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/245065\/","title":{"rendered":"China car sales to slump in 2026 if Beijing scraps subsidies, JPMorgan says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Car sales in mainland China are likely to slide in 2026, breaking a six-year streak, if Beijing stops granting cash subsidies and tax incentives to buyers, according to a JPMorgan forecast that looms over the earnings outlook for the country\u2019s 100-odd vehicle assemblers.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect retail [car] sales to see flat growth next year in a bullish scenario,\u201d Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan, said in an interview. \u201cThe market has more than a 50 per cent chance of seeing year-on-year slippage as meaningful demand may have been brought forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mainland car sales could slump by 3 to 5 per cent next year in a more cautious scenario, he added.<\/p>\n

The forecast encompasses both electric vehicles (EVs)<\/a> and petrol cars. The EV segment \u2013 a bright spot in China\u2019s economy amid surging adoption by local motorists \u2013 was expected to grow 15 per cent next year, down from a projected 27 per cent this year, Lai said.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s automotive sector last contracted in 2020, when carmakers handed a total of 19.5 million units to customers, down 6.2 per cent from 2019, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed.<\/p>\n

Expiring subsidies and tax incentives are to blame for the pessimistic outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Car sales in mainland China are likely to slide in 2026, breaking a six-year streak, if Beijing stops…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":245066,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[550,28,21546,134213,134217,134214,144,134219,134220,101,5040,134221,5679,134222,28323,134216,134215,8348,134218],"class_list":["post-245065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-beijing","tag-business","tag-byd","tag-car-sales","tag-cash-subsidies","tag-cash-subsidy","tag-china","tag-china-passenger-car-association","tag-chinese-carmakers","tag-economy","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-ev-buyers","tag-jpmorgan","tag-nick-lai","tag-overcapacity","tag-price-competition","tag-purchase-tax","tag-southeast-asia","tag-trade-in-subsidy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=245065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/245066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=245065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=245065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=245065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}