{"id":24770,"date":"2025-07-20T23:12:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T23:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/24770\/"},"modified":"2025-07-20T23:12:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-20T23:12:13","slug":"chances-of-a-recession-shrink-significantly-per-polymarket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/24770\/","title":{"rendered":"Chances of a recession shrink significantly, per Polymarket"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. recession<\/a> odds in 2025 are at an all-time low, according to betting odds at a popular prediction market.<\/p>\n

The chances of a recession in the U.S. have fallen from 70%, a record high reached in April<\/a>, to 18% as of Saturday, the lowest recorded odds this year on the cryptocurrency-based betting site Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In May, Polymarket saw recession fears plummet<\/a> as consumer confidence continued to climb.<\/p>\n

By early June, the perceived probability of a recession hovered near<\/a> Inauguration Day numbers, per Polymarket.<\/p>\n

However, the risk of a recession still looms over the U.S.<\/p>\n

In order for the recession bet<\/a> on Polymarket to pay out, resolving the market to \u201cYes,\u201d the following win conditions must be met: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Bureau of Economic Research publicly declares a recession at any point in 2025.<\/p>\n

FEDS RAID POLYMARKET CEO\u2019S HOME AFTER PLATFORM PREDICTED TRUMP VICTORY<\/a><\/p>\n

Back in March, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he did not expect the U.S. economy to experience a recession under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s going to be no recession in America,\u201d Lutnick told<\/a> NBC\u2019s Meet the Press at the time, adding, \u201cYou\u2019re going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America as Americans\u2026Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance.\u201d<\/p>\n

ECONOMY ADDS 147,000 JOBS IN JUNE, MORE THAN EXPECTED<\/a><\/p>\n

When asked by host Kristen Welker whether Americans should brace for a recession at all, Lutnick said<\/a>, \u201cAbsolutely not. Anybody who bets against Donald Trump, it\u2019s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn\u2019t a winner a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner. He\u2019s going to win for the American people. That\u2019s just the way it\u2019s going to be.\u201d<\/p>\n

At a House oversight hearing<\/a> before the appropriations subcommittee, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\u00a0echoed sentiments, telling lawmakers<\/a> in May, \u201cThere is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession.\u201d He then referenced the stronger-than-expected jobs report<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"U.S. recession odds in 2025 are at an all-time low, according to betting odds at a popular prediction…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24771,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101,939,21888,1556,14443,4666,2805],"class_list":["post-24770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-finance","tag-finance-and-economy","tag-gdp","tag-recession","tag-scott-bessent","tag-washington-d-c"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}