{"id":248920,"date":"2025-10-24T16:09:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T16:09:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/248920\/"},"modified":"2025-10-24T16:09:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T16:09:08","slug":"best-picture-dark-horse-for-oscars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/248920\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Picture Dark Horse for Oscars?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tIn an awards season crowded with spectacles, sequels and star-driven vehicles, the quiet power of \u201cTrain Dreams<\/a>\u201d may be its greatest strength.<\/p>\n

\n\tClint Bentley\u2019s moving adaptation of Denis Johnson\u2019s Pulitzer Prize finalist novella has steadily emerged as one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year \u2014 and a potential dark horse best picture contender. After a rousing premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January, where it was acquired by Netflix, the film went on to make a strong showing at the New York, Mill Valley and most recently Middleburg film festivals, earning raves and deepening its resonance with every screening. In discussions with festival attendees and critics, it\u2019s been striking how many cinephiles have shared their affection for the film.<\/p>\n

\n\tNow sitting at an impressive 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and backed by a steadily growing word-of-mouth campaign, \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d could become one of those quintessential movies that sneaks into the best picture category \u2014 not necessarily with a flash, but with a feeling.<\/p>\n

\n\tSet in the early 20th-century Pacific Northwest, the film stars Joel Edgerton<\/a> as Robert Grainier, a solitary railroad worker navigating profound personal loss as the American frontier expands around him.<\/p>\n

\n\tBentley, who directed from a script he co-wrote with his longtime collaborator Greg Kwedar, paints a portrait of grief and transformation with meditative precision and visual poetry. What begins as a modest character study becomes a sweeping reflection on death, memory and the ghosts we carry. It\u2019s the type of movie that can resonate with industry voters.<\/p>\n

\n\tAdolpho Veloso\u2019s cinematography evokes the stillness and grace of Terrence Malick, while Bryce Dessner\u2019s original score \u2014 featuring contributions from Nick Cave on the titular song \u2014 stitches together the film\u2019s spiritual undercurrent.<\/p>\n

\n\tEdgerton gives one of the most subtle and physical performances of his career, and William H. Macy<\/a>, in a key supporting role, reminds viewers why he remains one of America\u2019s most quietly compelling actors. The two have been steadily climbing the prediction charts over the past few weeks. Edgerton, who has endured several notable Oscar omissions during his career (including for \u201cAnimal Kingdom,\u201d \u201cLoving\u201d and \u201cThe Gift\u201d), makes a compelling case for the Australian multi-hyphenate to pick up his first nomination. Macy, who hasn\u2019t been recognized since \u201cFargo\u201d (1996), is the type of journeyman actor who often garners SAG Awards attention, especially given his four career wins for television.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe drama lingers because it doesn\u2019t insist on its importance; it lets that significance build gradually. It doesn\u2019t conclude so much as it echoes, like a memory you\u2019re unsure actually happened. With the Academy\u2019s attraction to emotionally grounded work \u2014 such as \u201cNomadland,\u201d \u201cCODA\u201d and \u201cWomen Talking\u201d \u2014 a gem like \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d has a real path forward. If voters watch it \u2014 and that\u2019s always the challenge with quieter films \u2014 it could follow in the footsteps of other slow-burning contenders that gradually gained strength throughout the season.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf this analysis holds, what does it mean for the rest of Netflix\u2019s slate, which is as robust as it\u2019s ever been? The streaming giant is backing \u201cFrankenstein\u201d from Oscar-winning director Guillermo del Toro; \u201cJay Kelly,\u201d Noah Baumbach\u2019s Hollywood-centric comedy that seems tailor-made for Academy voters; and \u201cA House of Dynamite,\u201d Kathryn Bigelow\u2019s return to high-stakes political storytelling.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d is already leading the charge with critical acclaim and emotional resonance, Netflix may be poised for a multi-pronged awards campaign that spans genre, tone and prestige \u2014 a rare position of strength in today\u2019s fragmented Oscar landscape. It\u2019s worth remembering that in 2022, the German war drama \u201cAll Quiet on the Western Front\u201d became the streamer\u2019s unexpected frontrunner after higher-profile titles like \u201cBardo,\u201d \u201cGlass Onion\u201d and \u201cWhite Noise\u201d failed to connect on the festival circuit.<\/p>\n

\n\tThere\u2019s still plenty of time before Oscar nominations are announced \u2014 or before any major awards bodies weigh in. But if there\u2019s a film waiting to slip past the noise and speak directly to voters\u2019 hearts, it might just be \u201cTrain Dreams,\u201d the season\u2019s unexpected elegy.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis week\u2019s updated Oscar predictions are below.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tTrain Dreams. (Featured) William H. Macy as Arn Peeples and Joel Edgerton as Robert Grainier in Train Dreams. Cr. BBP Train Dreams. LLC. \u00a9 2025.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCourtesy of Netflix<\/p>\n

\n\t*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)<\/p>\n

\n\tBest Picture
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios)
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d (Neon)
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24)
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tDirector
Paul Thomas Anderson, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d (Neon)
Joachim Trier, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)
Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)<\/p>\n

\n\tActor
Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24) ***
Leonardo DiCaprio, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, \u201cBlue Moon\u201d (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d (Neon) <\/p>\n

\n\tActress
Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, \u201cSong Sung Blue\u201d (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)
Amanda Seyfried, \u201cThe Testament of Ann Lee\u201d (Searchlight Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tSupporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
Andrew Scott, \u201cBlue Moon\u201d (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon) <\/p>\n

\n\tSupporting Actress
Elle Fanning, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)
Ariana Grande, \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tCasting
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Robin D. Cook
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features) \u2014 Nina Gold
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24) \u2014 Jennifer Venditti
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Cassandra Kulukundis
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Francine Maisler ***<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Screenplay
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d (Neon) \u2014 Jafar Panahi
\u201cJay Kelly\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24) \u2014 Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon) \u2014 Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Ryan Coogler ***<\/p>\n

\n\tAdapted Screenplay
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features) \u2014 Chlo\u00e9 Zhao ***
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Paul Thomas Anderson
\u201cSong Sung Blue\u201d (Focus Features) \u2014 Craig Brewer
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
\u201cWake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Rian Johnson<\/p>\n

\n\tAnimated Feature
\u201cArco\u201d (Neon)
\u201cIn Your Dreams\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d (Netflix) ***
\u201cLittle Am\u00e9lie or the Character of Rain\u201d (GKids)
\u201cZootopia 2\u201d (Walt Disney Pictures) <\/p>\n

\n\tProduction Design
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios)
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures) ***<\/p>\n

\n\tCinematography
\u201cBugonia\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

\n\tCostume Design
\u201cBlue Moon\u201d (Sony Pictures Classics)
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures) ***<\/p>\n

\n\tFilm Editing
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24)
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tMakeup and Hairstyling
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix) ***
\u201cThe Long Walk\u201d (Lionsgate)
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cThe Smashing Machine\u201d (A24)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures) <\/p>\n

\n\tSound
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios)
\u201cF1\u201d (Apple Original Films\/Warner Bros.)
\u201cA House of Dynamite\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) ***
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tVisual Effects
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios) ***
\u201cThe Fantastic Four: The First Steps\u201d (Marvel Studios)
\u201cHow to Train Your Dragon\u201d (Universal Pictures)
\u201cSuperman\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Score
\u201cBallad of a Small Player\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Volker Bertelmann
\u201cBugonia\u201d (Focus Features) \u2014 Jerskin Fendrix
\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features) \u2014 Max Richter
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Jonny Greenwood
\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Ludwig G\u00f6ransson ***<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Song
\u201cDream as One\u201d from \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios)
\u201cGolden\u201d from \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d (Netflix) ***
\u201cI Lied to You\u201d from \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cLast Time (I Seen the Sun)\u201d from \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)
\u201cThe Girl in the Bubble\u201d from \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures) <\/p>\n

\n\tDocumentary Feature
\u201cThe Alabama Solution\u201d (HBO Documentary Films) ***
\u201cCome See Me in the Good Light\u201d (Apple Original Films)
\u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d (Netflix)
\u201cThe Tale of Silyan\u201d (National Geographic)
\u201c2000 Meters to Andriivka\u201d (PBS)<\/p>\n

\n\tInternational Feature
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d from France (Neon)
\u201cNo Other Choice\u201d from South Korea (Neon)
\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d from Brazil (Neon)
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d from Norway (Neon) ***
\u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)<\/p>\n

\n\tTop 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d (13); \u201cHamnet\u201d (11); \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (10); \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (7)<\/p>\n

\n\tTop 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (29); Netflix (16); Focus Features and Neon (15); Universal Pictures (11)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In an awards season crowded with spectacles, sequels and star-driven vehicles, the quiet power of \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d may…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":248921,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[88,135937,206,29506,122900,124991],"class_list":{"0":"post-248920","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-movies","8":"tag-entertainment","9":"tag-joel-edgerton","10":"tag-movies","11":"tag-oscars","12":"tag-train-dreams","13":"tag-william-h-macy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=248920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/248921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=248920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=248920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=248920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}