Australia\u2019s oceans will enter \u201cuncharted territory\u201d by 2040 due to global heating, even if significant emissions cuts occur, new research has found.<\/p>\n
Australian researchers modelled ocean conditions under four scenarios, including current, high and low-emissions futures. They found that in 15 years, marine ecosystems would be facing extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidity conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe average year from 2040 onwards will be more extreme than the most extreme year that we\u2019ve experienced up until 2015,\u201d said Prof David Schoeman of the University of the Sunshine Coast, co-author of the research published in Earth\u2019s Future<\/a>.<\/p>\n Alice Pidd, the study\u2019s lead author who is also from the University of the Sunshine Coast, said marine species were already shifting towards the poles, seeking out cooler waters at an average of 59km per decade at current rates of warming. Some species were moving faster, like kingfish in eastern Australia, which were shifting up to 102km every ten years.<\/p>\n \u201cThis gradual ratcheting up is punctuated by extreme events such as marine heat waves that are becoming increasingly more frequent, intense and prolonged,\u201d she said. \u201cAs our oceans acidify [and] lose oxygen, the life they support is under increasing pressure to move, adapt or die. We\u2019re already seeing this in action.\u201d<\/p>\n The projections showed marine protected areas were just as exposed to these risks as unprotected ocean. The authors recommended the expansion of protected zones to include places designated as climate refuges where biodiversity had the best chance of surviving.<\/p>\n Potential refuges \u2013 areas expected to see the least amount of change \u2013 were mostly located along southern and south-western coastlines under emissions scenarios that met or exceeded the Paris climate agreement. These were fewer, and vanished more quickly under higher-emissions scenarios.<\/p>\n The team called for urgent, aggressive action to reduce carbon emissions in order to delay or limit the projected climate impacts.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re entering uncharted territory and marine biodiversity will be under increased pressure to adapt,\u201d Pidd said. \u201cThe past is no longer a good guide to the future.\u201d<\/p>\n Prof Jodie Rummer, a marine biologist at James Cook University who was not involved with the study, said ocean warming, oxygen loss and acidification were a \u201cdeadly trio\u201d for marine life and changing conditions were already making survival more difficult.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve seen differences in behaviour due to temperature changes that the Great Barrier Reef<\/a>, coral reefs and tropical ecosystems are facing already. Some fishes are actively seeking cooler habitats,\u201d she said. Some small sharks, thought to be tolerant to challenging conditions, were also reaching their limits.<\/p>\n \u201cThe rules that we\u2019ve been relying on for ocean protection and conservation, they\u2019re going to have to evolve,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n Sign up to Clear Air Australia<\/p>\n Adam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisis<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n \u201cIn conjunction with cutting emissions, climate refuges, while they still exist, can buy us that critical time for marine life to adapt and for us to preserve the resilience of these areas \u2013 the coral reefs, the marine ecosystems \u2013 that not only sustain these organisms, but sustain us as well.\u201d<\/p>\n The chief executive of the Australian Marine Conservation Society, Paul Gamblin, who was not involved with the study, said evidence to support the paper\u2019s findings was already \u201cgathering under our noses\u201d.<\/p>\n