{"id":263552,"date":"2025-10-31T20:47:39","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T20:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/263552\/"},"modified":"2025-10-31T20:47:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T20:47:39","slug":"will-byu-win-the-big-12-championship-heres-what-the-numbers-say-deseret-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/263552\/","title":{"rendered":"Will BYU win the Big 12 championship? Here’s what the numbers say \u2013 Deseret News"},"content":{"rendered":"

It appears as if the Big 12 football race is going down to the wire yet again.<\/p>\n

The conference championship game is 36 days away, and with five ranked teams in the league, November will be critical in determining who separates themselves from the pack.<\/p>\n

Luckily for BYU fans, the Cougars stand atop of the Big 12 standings at 8-0 and 5-0 in conference play \u2014 the only overall unbeaten squad remaining in the league, and, along with Cincinnati, the only team to remain unblemished in Big 12 play.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Special Collector’s Issue: “1984: The Year BYU was Second to None”<\/p>\n

Get an inclusive look inside BYU Football’s 1984 National Championship season.<\/p>\n

BYU started hot last year before two narrow November losses kept the Cougars out of the Big 12 championship game; however, the advanced metrics currently point to a happy ending for the 2025 Cougars.<\/p>\n

ESPN Analytics<\/a> uses a number of formulas \u2014 including Football Power Index (FPI), strength of record and more \u2014 to project specific outcomes for each individual college football game. I looked into the algorithm\u2019s projections for each remaining Big 12 contest this season to determine how the end-of-year standings might shake out \u2014 and who will likely play for the conference championship on Dec. 6.<\/p>\n

Listed below are the five current league leaders in the Big 12 and their respective remaining schedules.<\/p>\n

Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics gives the team to win that day, with the cumulative overall and conference records being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.<\/p>\n

Injuries, coaching changes, newer game results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we\u2019ll stick to what they say today.<\/p>\n

While you should never fully put your faith into such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves to be analytics believers may want to look into Texas travel for early December.<\/p>\n

BYUCurrent record: 8-0 (5-0 in Big 12 play)\"\"BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) celebrates after scoring a rushing touchdown during game against the West Virginia Mountaineers at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Friday, Oct. 3, 2025. | Rio Giancarlo, Deseret News <\/p>\n

Remaining schedule<\/p>\n

At Texas Tech \u2014 41.9% chance to win.Vs. TCU \u2014 75.3%.At Cincinnati \u2014 56.7%.Vs. UCF \u2014 84.6%.<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).<\/p>\n

Texas TechCurrent record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)\"\"Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton (2) passes the ball against Houston during the second half of a game, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025, in Houston. | AP <\/p>\n

Remaining schedule<\/p>\n

At Kansas State \u2014 64.4% chance to win.Vs. BYU \u2014 58.1%.Vs. UCF \u2014 85.2%.At West Virginia \u2014 90.5%.<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).<\/p>\n

CincinnatiCurrent record: 7-1 (5-0 in Big 12 play)\"\"Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) throws the ball against Oklahoma State Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, in Stillwater, Okla. | AP <\/p>\n

Remaining schedule<\/p>\n

At Utah \u2014 19.5% chance to win.Vs. Arizona \u2014 75.4%.Vs. BYU \u2014 43.3%.At TCU \u2014 43.8%.<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected final record: 8-4 (6-3 in Big 12 play).<\/p>\n

HoustonCurrent record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)\"\"Houston quarterback Conner Weigman (1) celebrates his touchdown against Arizona State Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, in Tempe, Ariz. | AP <\/p>\n

Remaining schedule<\/p>\n

Vs. West Virginia \u2014 81.1% chance to win.At UCF \u2014 37.0%.Vs. TCU \u2014 44.5%.At Baylor \u2014 43.1%.<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected final record: 8-4 (5-4 in Big 12 play).<\/p>\n

UtahCurrent record: 6-2 (3-2 in Big 12 play)\"\"Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) and Utah Utes wide receiver Ryan Davis (9) celebrate after a Dampier touchdown as Utah and UCLA play at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025. Utah won 43-10. | Scott G Winterton, Deseret News <\/p>\n

Remaining schedule<\/p>\n

Vs. Cincinnati \u2014 80.5% chance to win.At Baylor \u2014 79.1%.Vs. Kansas State \u2014 79.8%.At Kansas \u2014 76.7%.<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).<\/p>\n

Analytics-based projected Big 12 championship game matchup<\/p>\n

11-1 BYU vs. 11-1 Texas Tech.<\/p>\n

What are the Big 12 tiebreaker policies?<\/p>\n

According to the Big 12 rule book<\/a>, here is the conference\u2019s list of two-team tiebreaker policies:<\/p>\n

Head-to-head competition among the two tied teamsWin percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teamsWin percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standingsCombined win percentage in conference games of conference opponentsTotal number of wins in a 12-game seasonHighest ranking by SportSource AnalyticsCoin toss<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It appears as if the Big 12 football race is going down to the wire yet again. The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":263553,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[399,398,396,397,3125,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-263552","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-ncaa","10":"tag-ncaa-football","11":"tag-ncaafootball","12":"tag-news-feed-local","13":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}