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<\/a><\/p>\nPittsburgh has cleared the first unofficial and informal hurdle of the \u201cNovember 1st\u201d rule, as made popular by Elliotte Friedman. The rule says that any team that is 4+ points behind the playoff line at the start of November 1st rarely are able to overcome the deficit. Then again, as of today on November 2nd, every team in the East is within four points of the current final Wild Card spot \u2014 which might speak to just how close and competitive the conference is this year. Over in the Western Conference three teams are in the danger zone for this metric \u2014 San Jose, Calgary and St. Louis are all four points or more back from the playoff line today.<\/p>\n
That first early season indicator is there to confirm suspicions for teams going into the year that aren\u2019t very good and already falling behind the pack more than it is to validate teams who have started off hot. It usually takes more data and in towards Thanksgiving to look and see just how much the hot starts can last through 20+ games.<\/p>\n
As such, with a lack of data in (the Pens have completed 15.8% of the schedule so far), much of the modelling are still not believers or buying into Pittsburgh\u2019s hot start turning into full-season success.<\/p>\n
Playoff odds by various models<\/p>\n
Hockey Reference: 69.3%<\/a>, points 97.0 It\u2019s interesting to see which models put a lot of emphasis on the results that have come in (Hockey Reference) and which ones are being more stubborn to cling to future projected strengths to tip the tables by the end of the year (The Athletic). Dom Luszczyszyn<\/a>\u2019s model still has the Rangers (56%) and shoot even the Buffalo Sabres (38%) with better chances of getting to the playoffs then the Pens, the starts apparently not meaning much. And we haven\u2019t used the data to refresh for today after a Pittsburgh loss yesterday.<\/p>\n On the other side of the spectrum, Hockey Reference is already comfortable with calling the Pens a 97-point team \u2014 which might be prematurely generous at bound to swing back the other way with a losing streak. Stepping back, I\u2019m not sure the Pens have done enough with their process and high PDO to fully drink the kool aid and believe they can stay this strong for six more months, but hey, it\u2019s nice that at least some statistical model out there is buying into the results that unfolded in October.<\/p>\n
Moneypuck: 30.2%<\/a> points: 89.1
The Athletic: 20.0%<\/a>, points: 82.6 (updated Nov 1)<\/p>\n