{"id":267173,"date":"2025-11-02T16:17:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-02T16:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/267173\/"},"modified":"2025-11-02T16:17:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-02T16:17:08","slug":"youll-definitely-guess-why-the-capitals-are-in-a-four-game-losing-streak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/267173\/","title":{"rendered":"You\u2019ll definitely guess why the Capitals are in a four-game losing streak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Having lost their fourth game in a row<\/a>, the Washington Capitals have a lot to ponder before their next game, Wednesday against St. Louis. There\u2019s nothing I hate more than wasted time, he said as he prepares to attempt his 100th run in Hades II, so I\u2019ve created this guide to what\u2019s working and what\u2019s the power play with Capitals.<\/p>\n

Oh, that\u2019s a spoiler.<\/p>\n

The Washington Capitals control play well during five-on-five.<\/p>\n

Our best tool for measuring puck possession is shot attempts. The Caps are the team behind 55.4 percent of attempts in their games, third best in the league behind Colorado and Carolina.<\/p>\n

Early-season possession is a good indicator of success later in the season. We should feel good about the Caps\u2019 ability to drive play, but there\u2019s a big caveat.<\/p>\n

The Capitals have had weak opponents so far.<\/p>\n

In their games against all other teams, the Caps\u2019 opponents have averaged 48.3 percent of both shot attempts and expected goals. The Bruins, Kraken, and Canucks are all below 45 percent. And I don\u2019t know what the heck is going on with Dallas \u2013 a 6-3-3 record but ranked last in shot attempts and bottom ten in expected goals.<\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s schedule in October was cushy; leading models predict those teams wll finish with an average of 89 points. But in November, it climbs to 94. I think of 92 points as a crude cutoff between playoff and non-playoff teams, if that helps put it in context.<\/p>\n

The Caps aren\u2019t finishing their chances.<\/p>\n

According to my favorite site, Natural Stat Trick, the Caps have had 129 high-danger chances during five-on-five play through 12 games. That\u2019s a high number \u2013 fifth most in the league. You can see that reinforced by this heatmap from my other favorite site, HockeyViz.<\/p>\n

\"HockeyVizHockeyViz<\/p>\n

The opponent\u2019s goal is at the top. The deep red blob indicates that the Caps are getting lots of chances from that location \u2013 all up in the goalie\u2019s face. One problem:<\/p>\n

Their shots aren\u2019t going in.<\/p>\n

Though the Caps rank fifth in generating high-danger chances, they rank 18th in high-danger goals. Their shooting percentage on those chances is 27th in the league. The puck luck just isn\u2019t there.<\/p>\n

We saw that on Saturday night when Aliaksei Protas rang the crossbar, the 19th near-miss for the Caps so far this season, among the most in the league.<\/p>\n

And we\u2019re not used to poor puck luck.<\/p>\n

During all of five-on-five play, not just high-danger chances, the Caps convert 8.2 percent of their shots on goal, 25th in the league. Shooting cold over one-seventh of the season isn\u2019t abnormal, nor is it something to worry about if your team is generating chances as well as Washington is, but. . .<\/p>\n

We are spoiled. At this point last season, the Capitals were shooting 14.1 percent, first in the league. Until a late-season slump, that team was on track to being the hottest-shooting team of the modern era. (They still finished 9th out of 584 teams.)<\/p>\n

From an objective standpoint, the Caps are struggling to score. From a subjective standpoint, i.e. all of ours, the Caps are in a crisis, oh god, oh god, someone do something.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s too early to worry about Alex Ovechkin.<\/p>\n

With just two goals in twelve games, Alex Ovechkin is concerning. Basic observation suggests his mobility is poor. The NHL\u2019s player-tracking system, EDGE, has a lot of problems, but it aligns with the eye test<\/a>: Ovechkin\u2019s maximum skating speed is down almost two miles per hour from last year.<\/p>\n

But Ovechkin has a decades-long history of making haters his waiters at the table of success<\/a>. Keep in mind that Ovechkin had this exact goal total after this exact number of games in 2023-24. He finished that campaign with 31 goals. He had three goals at this point of his 2008-09 season. He went on to score infinity goals and win the Richard, Hart, and Pearson.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not saying Ovi will score 56 goals this season. His shot-attempt rate during five-on-five is 19, down from 22 last season, but it\u2019s still on pace with few years before, when he wasn\u2019t closely stalking Gretzky.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that Ovechkin has gone off a cliff. I doubt it. I wouldn\u2019t worry.<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t worry about much of anything at five-on-five, as long as the core stays healthy.<\/p>\n

But.<\/p>\n

BUT!<\/p>\n

The Washington Capitals\u2019 power play is atrocious.<\/p>\n

The Caps\u2019 last power-play goal came nine days ago. They\u2019ve failed to score on 13 opportunities during this four-game losing streak. Since two of those games were decided by one goal and the Islanders game would have been too if not for an empty-netter, the PP is the primary reason why this losing streak exists at all.<\/p>\n

Over the whole season, having converted six of their 40 power-play opportunities, the Caps\u2019 20th ranked power play looks better than it actually is. A lot of the teams below the Caps \u2013 like the Canes, Rangers, and Leafs \u2013 are struggling because of low shooting percentages. Washington is struggling because they can\u2019t even shoot in the first place.<\/p>\n

The power play isn\u2019t generating enough offense.<\/p>\n

The Capitals attempt 85.4 shots per hour during five-on-four play, worse than every team except Chicago. For context, an average power play attempts about 100 shots per hour, and a good one gets around 115. The Caps were at 98 last season.<\/p>\n

Revisiting HockeyViz\u2019s heatmap, but this time for power-play offense, the Caps are a black hole. Technically, literally, they\u2019re a purple hole, indicating way less offense coming from all over the ice.<\/p>\n

\"CapsHockeyViz<\/p>\n

But \u201cnot enough shots\u201d isn\u2019t a root-cause analysis; it\u2019s just another description of a problem we\u2019re all noticing. The real problem with the power play is happening further from the net \u2013 on the other side of the blue line.<\/p>\n

The NHL is cagey about publishing its advanced stats, but by its reckoning the Caps rank 30th in offensive-zone time. It\u2019s not that the team isn\u2019t hitting the back of the net, and it\u2019s not that they can\u2019t generate shots either. They are getting turned away at the blue line, before they have a chance to do anything at all. That\u2019s where they need to start: transition play and zone entries.<\/p>\n

At even strength, the Capitals are going to be just fine. They\u2019re controlling the puck well. Even if these early-season possession numbers drop, a progression to the mean in shooting percentage will make up the difference.<\/p>\n

But I can\u2019t be as blas\u00e9 about special teams. It\u2019s punishing to watch. I imagine it\u2019s punishing to play. At some point, if it hasn\u2019t happened already, special teams will spill over into even-strength play: opponents will feel more free to restrain the Caps, and the Caps themselves will play on tilt. Grumpy hockey.<\/p>\n

Power-play coach Kirk Muller should be a busy man this week.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ud83d\udcca<\/p>\n

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