Ireland faces a surge in the number of older people as a proportion of the population, falling tax revenues and increased fiscal deficits, according to a new report by the Department of Finance.<\/p>\n
The study says that without remedies the deficit could reach a significant 8% of national income driving the country’s borrowing to almost 150% of the size of the economy or \u20ac117,000 per head in 40 years.<\/p>\n
It warns if the debt reaches this level it would “considerably hinder the State\u2019s ability to respond to crises or deliver public services and investment”.<\/p>\n
The report called Future Forty outlines potential scenarios between now and 2065.<\/p>\n
The stark projections are consistent with the long-term trajectory across many advanced economies.<\/p>\n
At present there are 116 people in the labour force in Ireland for every 100 not working.<\/p>\n
By 2065 there will be 98 workers for every 100 not working.<\/p>\n
The report says there will be a “stagnating labour force suppressing economic growth”.<\/p>\n
It says: “Continued inward migration will be vital to maintain growth in the labour force.”<\/p>\n
By that time almost half of the State’s expenditure will be on age-related spending including healthcare, long term care and pensions.<\/p>\n
Watch: Paschal Donohoe outlines how he will address issues raised in Dept of Finance study <\/p>\n
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The report also warns about the impact of debt servicing costs and spending to deal with climate change absorbing increasing amounts of expenditure.<\/p>\n
In extreme scenarios climate measures could represent 3% to 4% of national spending as more extreme weather events wreak economic damage and require a response from the State.<\/p>\n
It also says the proportion of windfall tax receipts will fall significantly between 2030 and 2040.<\/p>\n
The report says over the last 30 years Ireland has enjoyed economic growth of 143% but it indicates the days of remarkable expansion are numbered.<\/p>\n
It projects growth will increase by a much lower 53% over the next four decades.<\/p>\n
On housing, the report predicts that demand for homes is expected to moderate in the next ten years with supply pressures “easing significantly by the 2040s”.<\/p>\n
The reports notes the current Government is committed to building 300,000 by 2030 and assumes housing supply will reach 60,000 that year.<\/p>\n
“Changing demographics and household preferences imply a need for smaller units suitable for fewer occupants.”<\/p>\n
The report says deglobalisation or international companies retrenching to their home countries represents a “serious risk” to Ireland.<\/p>\n
On EU expansion it says there are ten candidate countries seeking to join the EU which would result in the population of the bloc rising by 140m.<\/p>\n
The report outlines a number of scenarios for growth in the population reaching between 5.9m and 7.9m by 2065 depending on immigration and fertility rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ireland faces a surge in the number of older people as a proportion of the population, falling tax…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":271766,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-271765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=271765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/271766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=271765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=271765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=271765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}