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<\/p>\nThe first month of the NHL season is in the books, and it\u2019s time to look at how the NHL\u2019s playoff race is shaping up.<\/p>\n
After each night\u2019s slate of games is finished, our playoff projections page is updated, taking into account the results from those games and fresh new data to feed into the model. Every night, everything changes and those changes can add up \u2014 especially if a team goes on a heater (or cooler). Those changes can also be difficult to view at a glance, and it\u2019s good practice to take stock regularly of what\u2019s been happening.<\/p>\n
This is the Playoff Report, a monthly check-in of each team\u2019s chances of making the playoffs, the trends within the race, and why the biggest movers are on the rise or declining.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the race currently shapes up.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Eastern Conference<\/p>\n
Thanks to some shocking hot starts for some and strange cold starts for others, the East is already in an unpredictable state of disarray. It\u2019s crowded with almost every team hovering around .500, meaning every team has a shot. While the Lightning, Hurricanes and Devils look fairly safe, no team is a lock yet.<\/p>\n
Part of that is due to a change in the underlying simulation where each team\u2019s expected win percentage dynamically changes based on how its simulated season is going, rather than staying constant throughout. Essentially, it better accounts for the possibility of a team leveling up during an unexpected hot (or cold) streak. That leaves a lot more leeway at the extremes.<\/p>\n
The other part is that the teams expected to be weakest \u2014 Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and the Islanders \u2014 all started strong. While teams expected to be strong \u2014 Toronto, Washington and Florida \u2014 have stumbled a bit. Add in hot starts from teams looking to take a major leap (Montreal, Detroit, New Jersey), and everyone is hanging around.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all a big mess, and for now, the model defers to the more experienced teams with a track record while remaining skeptical of those with weaker rosters on paper. We\u2019ll see how much that holds, and while there\u2019s a real chance an unexpected team upsets the current balance, it\u2019s still very early.<\/p>\n
Western Conference<\/p>\n
In direct contrast to the East, the West feels a little more cut-and-dry \u2014 at least at the top. Vegas and Colorado are basically locks and it would be a shock if the playoffs started without Dallas, Edmonton and Winnipeg. That\u2019s exactly as expected to start the season and while the Stars and Oilers haven\u2019t been at their best, the West doesn\u2019t have the same depth of threats that the East has.<\/p>\n
Three spots remain after that and there are a lot of options for that with varying degrees of confidence. It\u2019s easy to love Utah early, but none of the other expected playoff contenders \u2014 Los Angeles, Vancouver, Minnesota, St. Louis \u2014 have got off on the right foot. The Ducks look extremely interesting, but the team is still green, is 24th in xG and has faced one of the league\u2019s easiest schedules.<\/p>\n
Like Pittsburgh in the East, the Kraken and Blackhawks are expected to cool down considerably over the rest of the season. Neither is considered a major threat until they prove more over a longer stretch.<\/p>\n
On the riseUtah Mammoth<\/p>\n
Between the end of last year (17-9-4 to close the season) and the start of this one (9-4-0), no team\u2019s stock has risen more than Utah\u2019s. Over 43 games, that\u2019s a 107-point pace.<\/p>\n The model has been painfully slow in recognizing the Mammoth\u2019s surge as a future power, but it\u2019s starting to come around after an excellent first month. During that time, the Mammoth\u2019s 54.9 percent xG rate ranks sixth, while their 56.8 percent goal rate ranks fifth in the league. That\u2019s a continuation of where the team left off, one powered by one of the league\u2019s best top-six groups. It\u2019s driven to a plus-9.7 improvement in Net Rating, the third best mark in the league.<\/p>\n The biggest driver of that has been the shocking surge from Nick Schmaltz. In a contract year, he\u2019s looked like an elite piece to start with 18 points in 13 games \u2014 17 of them primary. That latter mark is tied with Nathan MacKinnon and Mark Scheifele for the league lead. There\u2019s substance behind that, too, with a 59 percent xG rate against tough competition on Utah\u2019s first line.<\/p>\n After a lengthy stretch of rebuilding hockey, it\u2019s going to take more than half a season to anoint Utah a contender. But a strong start has helped cement the Mammoth\u2019s status as a playoff-worthy team with a 24 percentage point jump in playoff chances, the best in the league. They\u2019re on the right path to upsetting the league\u2019s power balance at the top of the table.<\/p>\n Detroit Red Wings<\/p>\n After a long time away from the playoffs, this might finally be the year that the Red Wings return. A red-hot 9-5-0 start has pushed Detroit\u2019s playoff chances to 45 percent \u2014 a 15 percentage point improvement.<\/p>\n There are a number of reasons for that. The surprising emergence of Emmitt Finnie is a big one for that, as he\u2019s looked like a capable top-six player from the jump. Capable depth contributions on defense are another reason, as it\u2019s been a long time since the Red Wings had a third pair they could count on. The most important reason, though, is the continued development of the team\u2019s star core. Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Moritz Seider have reached a new level.<\/p>\n Of those four, the biggest development belongs to Seider, who is cementing himself as a franchise star. Despite playing a lot of tough minutes with Ben Chiarot, Seider has a 56 percent xG rate to start the season and 53 percent of the goals, both well above team average. By Net Rating, only four top-pair defensemen currently rank higher than Seider: Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, Adam Fox and Josh Morrissey.<\/p>\n On top of that, Seider\u2019s current projected Net Rating of plus-11 ranks 12th among all defenseman. He\u2019s also the only one with an Offensive and Defensive Rating north of plus-five. If Seider can keep this up, he might be in line for some Norris consideration in April \u2014 and maybe dragging the Red Wings to the playoffs along with it.<\/p>\n Colorado Avalanche<\/p>\n We expected that this would be the best and deepest Colorado team we\u2019ve seen since their Cup win in 2022 and that\u2019s looking to be exactly the case so far. The Avalanche lead the league with a 60.8 percent xG rate and have only two regulars lower than 57.5 percent: Parker Kelly (53.3 percent) and Gavin Brindley (43.3 percent). At five-on-five, the Avalanche have been an absolute force.<\/p>\n Part of that is the continued dominance of MacKinnon and Cale Makar, the two current leaders for Net Rating on the season. But the bigger story is the supporting cast that\u2019s allowed Colorado\u2019s elite duo to reach even higher heights.<\/p>\n Up front, it\u2019s Martin Necas having undeniable chemistry with MacKinnon while Brock Nelson\u2019s line dominates defensively in shutdown minutes \u2014 freeing up MacKinnon to unleash further damage. Nelson has been a major part of the team\u2019s defensive jump, a plus-10.8 Defensive Rating jump that ranks second to only the Rangers. Having Gabriel Landeskog on the third line is a nice luxury on top of that. On defense, Brent Burns still has it and has been an incredible addition to the top four.<\/p>\n The real scary part? We haven\u2019t even seen Colorado\u2019s final form. Just wait until the power play (24th in goals, 30th in xG) wakes up.<\/p>\n Vegas Golden Knights<\/p>\n We all knew Vegas would be one of the league\u2019s best after adding Mitch Marner and so far the Golden Knights have delivered with a 7-2-3 start. Marner has been a big part of that leading a high-powered second line with Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev that has crushed opponents with a 73 percent xG rate while outscoring them 4-1. Having him and Jack Eichel driving separate lines is a cheat code for Vegas.<\/p>\n No team\u2019s Net Rating jumped higher over the last month than Vegas\u2019 plus-16.6, a leap that has a lot to do with extra power play time. Vegas has drawn 3.69 penalties per 60 this season, up from 2.46 last year. An extra two minutes of power-play time per game for Eichel and Co. is massive considering the team is scoring 10 goals-per-60 with the man advantage. Dorofeyev in particular has been incredible on that front and has seen his Net Rating go up 3.4 goals over the last month, the seventh biggest jump in the league.<\/p>\n Honorable MentionsMontreal Canadiens<\/p>\n The Canadiens saw their playoff chances jump 10.5 percentage points \u2014 fourth highest in the league \u2014 but still have something to prove against tougher opponents. Montreal has faced the third-easiest schedule in the league.<\/p>\n Winnipeg Jets<\/p>\n Despite looking tepid at five-on-five the Jets are off to a hot start on the back of their star power. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are delivering offensively, Josh Morrissey has been great and somehow Connor Hellebuyck is holding down the fort better than usual. Hellebuyck\u2019s consistency at such a high level at a notoriously volatile position has only made the gap between him and the rest of the league grow larger.<\/p>\n Falling offMinnesota Wild<\/p>\n The Wild are losing their identity. That\u2019s the major takeaway in Minnesota through the first month after the Wild gave up 2.95 xGA\/60, the league\u2019s eighth-worst mark. The last time the Wild found themselves outside the top five was 2011-12. That was 15 seasons ago!<\/p>\n Because of that, the Wild have fallen to 16th in Defensive Rating. To add insult to injury, they also have the league\u2019s worst penalty kill by expected goals against and second worst by goals against. Woof.<\/p>\n Minnesota\u2019s defensive nosedive can be attributed to two things: shutdown-veteran decline and rookie mistakes.<\/p>\n On the first front, Joel Eriksson Ek hardly looks Selke-calibre, allowing 2.79 xGA\/60, while Jared Spurgeon is showing serious signs of age at 2.84 xGA\/60. Both would be career-worst marks by a hefty margin; both players have never been above 2.2 xGA\/60. On the second front, the defensive \u201cpresence\u201d of both Zeev Buium and David Jiricek on the back end has been noticeably poor.<\/p>\n If the Wild don\u2019t have defensive structure, they don\u2019t have anything. No team\u2019s playoff chances dropped further than the Wild\u2019s in the first month.<\/p>\n Calgary Flames<\/p>\n There were a lot of reasons to believe last year\u2019s 96 points were a mirage, but a 3-9-2 start was still difficult to fathom. The Flames have been outscored by 17, a direct result of the league\u2019s weakest offense (2.14 GF\/60) and a massive sophomore slump from Dustin Wolf (10th worst GSAx). The first part was expected, the latter wasn\u2019t. That\u2019s the main difference between the Flames being a .500 team and the current version that already looks cooked.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s one beacon of hope for a turnaround for Calgary, it\u2019s that the Flames have a top 10 xG despite playing against the league\u2019s third-hardest schedule. If that softens up, they could start climbing. Given the team\u2019s lack of star power, though, a trip to the lottery might serve the team best. Calgary\u2019s odds of a top-three pick have climbed from 16 percent to start the season to 31 percent.<\/p>\n Toronto Maple Leafs<\/p>\n I already wrote about Toronto\u2019s middling start to the season<\/a>. Here\u2019s the gist: The Leafs are once again struggling to control play despite a home-heavy schedule against the league\u2019s second softest schedule. The power play looks awful, their main superstar doesn\u2019t look like himself most nights and the team\u2019s backbone, goaltending, has fallen apart on most nights.<\/p>\n There\u2019s still a lot of room for Toronto to look like a contender again, but there\u2019s also a lot of evidence pointing toward the contrary right now. With so much competition in the East, the Leafs are far from safe for the first time in the Auston Matthews era. Their Net Rating has dropped by 11.2 goals, the third-worst mark in the league.<\/p>\n St. Louis Blues<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-05-at-9.11.45\u202fAM.png\")
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