{"id":275344,"date":"2025-11-06T15:02:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T15:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/275344\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T15:02:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T15:02:10","slug":"red-wings-mailbag-could-moritz-seider-be-a-norris-trophy-candidate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/275344\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Wings mailbag: Could Moritz Seider be a Norris Trophy candidate?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been a fast, fun start to the season for the Detroit Red Wings.<\/p>\n

At 9-5-0, the Red Wings are second in the Atlantic Division as they begin a four-game homestand. Their captain, Dylan Larkin, is among the league\u2019s scoring leaders. And the energy is accordingly high in Hockeytown.<\/p>\n

It felt like a good time to open up the mailbag and see what was on readers\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n

Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.<\/p>\n

What will it take for Moritz Seider to be at least a Norris candidate? I know the offensive numbers aren\u2019t the best, but he\u2019s becoming a shut-down D-man and playing some of the toughest minutes in the league. \u2014 Chris F.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been impressed by Seider\u2019s start to the season, and the numbers back it up. He\u2019s carrying a 55.96 percent expected goals share against tough competition, and his actual goals share isn\u2019t too far behind that number. His expected goals against per 60 is quite strong at 2.26. That gives statistical backing to what those who watch him nightly have long believed: that Seider can be one of the league\u2019s best defensemen.<\/p>\n

His play is getting national attention already<\/a>, and with the Red Wings looking improved, that helps too. But points do tend to matter in awards voting, so\u00a0I took a look at Norris voting over the last decade to see who finished top-five while scoring less than 60 points (or below a 60-point pace, in shortened seasons).<\/p>\n

Norris top-5, under 60 points<\/p>\n

PlayerYearNorris finishPoints (per game)xGF%xGA\/60<\/p>\n

2023<\/p>\n

4<\/p>\n

53 (.66)<\/p>\n

56.58<\/p>\n

2.28<\/p>\n

2022<\/p>\n

4<\/p>\n

56 (.72)<\/p>\n

63.18<\/p>\n

1.78<\/p>\n

2021<\/p>\n

5<\/p>\n

30 (.59)<\/p>\n

57.71<\/p>\n

1.91<\/p>\n

2020<\/p>\n

5<\/p>\n

36 (.53)<\/p>\n

55.11<\/p>\n

2.31<\/p>\n

2019<\/p>\n

3<\/p>\n

54 (.77)<\/p>\n

53.49<\/p>\n

2.34<\/p>\n

2018<\/p>\n

3<\/p>\n

59 (.72)<\/p>\n

51.43<\/p>\n

2.36<\/p>\n

2018<\/p>\n

4<\/p>\n

57 (.73)<\/p>\n

52.8<\/p>\n

2.4<\/p>\n

2017<\/p>\n

4<\/p>\n

53 (.66)<\/p>\n

48.14<\/p>\n

2.45<\/p>\n

2017<\/p>\n

5<\/p>\n

40 (.49)<\/p>\n

59.79<\/p>\n

1.78<\/p>\n

2016<\/p>\n

1<\/p>\n

51 (.62)<\/p>\n

55.57<\/p>\n

1.98<\/p>\n

There are a few things to note here. Not all seasons are created equal, and we\u2019re living in the modern golden age of high-producing defensemen, led by Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. That makes the competition stiff right now. Miro Heiskanen has never finished top-five, for example, and you\u2019ll note that recent examples of this profile finishing top-five are more scarce.<\/p>\n

Additionally, P.K. Subban, Victor Hedman and Duncan Keith had also already won Norris trophies at the time of these finishes, and (right or wrong) reputation can be a factor with voters. It\u2019s not as simple as just crossing a certain threshold.<\/p>\n

But this group still paints a picture of what it takes to finish top-five for the Norris without monster offensive numbers, and that range feels plausible for Seider. His underlying numbers are already right in line with this group.<\/p>\n

Points do matter to voters, though, and right now Seider\u2019s .43 points per game (six in 14 games) stand out as the main flaw in his case. History says he doesn\u2019t need to get to 60 points if he can keep his underlying numbers as strong as they\u2019ve been, but he probably does need to get above the half-point per game mark, and ideally above 0.6.<\/p>\n

Seider\u2019s career high so far is 50, and if he could get there again, while keeping up his excellent defense, it would make his resume look extremely similar to Lindholm \u2014 the most recent player to finish top-five without scoring 60 points.<\/p>\n

What kind of odds would you currently give Detroit to make the playoffs? More or less than 50 percent? And have things changed much since the season started? \u2014 Super M.<\/p>\n

I thought they\u2019d be close before the season, but I picked them to come up just short, and I\u2019d probably flip that based on these first 14 games.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, though, that\u2019s not because I view this Red Wings team much differently than I did a month ago. They\u2019re pretty much exactly what I expected them to be: an improved, motivated team that still has flaws<\/a> and makes youthful mistakes.<\/p>\n

Instead, I\u2019m starting to think the playoff cut line will be low once again, based on the unbelievable parity we\u2019re seeing in the Eastern Conference. There really aren\u2019t many doormats in the East this year \u2014 and there aren\u2019t many sure things either. I\u2019d still call Carolina, New Jersey and Tampa virtual locks, and I do think Florida and Washington will be there in the end. But beyond that, there aren\u2019t many teams that have been clearly better than Detroit.<\/p>\n

Montreal is off to a great start, but their opening schedule has been light so far \u2014 they\u2019ve beaten only one playoff team from last season. I think the Rangers are better than their record indicates and would expect them to give Detroit some trouble Friday, but they\u2019re not exactly humming along. Ottawa would probably be my pick to really come on strong in the second half, when they get Brady Tkachuk back (and assuming Linus Ullmark returns to form), but they might also have a hole to dig out of by then.<\/p>\n

The Red Wings have a lot to prove still, so I certainly wouldn\u2019t feel confident calling them a playoff team right now. But they have banked some big early points, have some key pieces who have more to give, and the competition could really beat each other up along the way.<\/p>\n

I think Detroit has as good a shot as any of those other teams outside that top five.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n I think it\u2019s been a mixed bag for Axel Sandin-Pellikka to start the year. (Stephen R. Sylvanie \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m wondering what you think of Axel Sandin-Pellikka as an NHLer. His offensive numbers, which made him such an exciting and valuable prospect, haven\u2019t jumped off the page: four points. And his TOI is dropping from the start of the season, but he\u2019s still playing like a reliable second-pair defenseman. Just looking for a deep dive on the kid and curious to see how that changes over the course of the season. \u2014 Andrew C.<\/p>\n

Would you say Adam Fox is the best long-term comparable for Sandin-Pellikka? \u2014 Connor I.<\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s been a mixed bag for Sandin-Pellikka to start the year. At a base level, it\u2019s encouraging for the big picture that he\u2019s up at all, and I\u2019m impressed with the way he\u2019s competed, as well as the way he walks the blue line in the offensive zone.<\/p>\n

To your point, though, the ice time has gone down of late, and the offense (a big part of his profile) has been more solid than eye-catching. I\u2019d like to see him get his shot through more often, and I definitely think that will come in time.<\/p>\n

For now, the big key is getting him to be as effective and confident as possible. His smarts and elusiveness should help Detroit on exits and in the offensive zone \u2014 as long as his defense and game management can hold up.<\/p>\n

\u201cYoung players, they ride that high wave of emotion and making the team, and then all of the sudden they make it and it settles in and becomes a grind,\u201d Todd McLellan said recently. \u201cAnd as it becomes a grind for the youth, the older veterans are really hitting stride right now. They\u2019re finding their games, they become more confident, they become more physical. And Axe is at that crossroads right now where he\u2019s dealing with it. There\u2019s so much good on the offensive side. The defensive side I think there\u2019s room for improvement.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for a comparison, Fox feels lofty for me. I get the thinking with the intelligence in a smaller defender, but Fox would be at a different level in my eyes. I\u2019ve said Brandon Montour in the past, and while Sandin-Pellikka isn\u2019t quite as thick as Montour, I do think he has the kind of competitiveness to play a two-way game, and have real offense too.<\/p>\n

Based on his skating and defensive game, does Emmitt Finnie project as a center long-term? If so, how do you envision the utilization of Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson and Emmitt Finnie in a contention window? \u2014 Nate K.<\/p>\n

Part of Finnie\u2019s appeal is his versatility. I don\u2019t know if he has the offensive profile to be a top-six center, but it\u2019s very easy to see him as either a bottom-six center or on the wing anywhere in the lineup because of his speed and tenacity.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think the way they\u2019ve deployed him so far makes a lot of sense, as a puck retriever on the wing next to skilled players in the top six. Over time, as Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd and Carter Bear move into Detroit\u2019s lineup full-time, both will also be candidates to play that kind of role high in the lineup, but it really wouldn\u2019t shock me if Finnie sticks there because of his skating. If not, I could see him being an excellent third-line player as well.<\/p>\n

That kind of versatility is an asset, and the Red Wings have a lot of time to figure it all out.<\/p>\n

What do you think the Red Wings\u2019 bottom six looks like in January? \u2014 Philip M.<\/p>\n

This is a great question, because I do think Nate Danielson will get a look at some point this season \u2014 especially if he keeps up like he has been so far in Grand Rapids. He has five points in his first four games with the Griffins.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d be intrigued to see Danielson between Andrew Copp and Mason Appleton as a third line that can check, skate and move the puck, with Appleton showing some finishing ability too. That would leave J.T. Compher centering the fourth line, and there are some great debates to be had around who would make the most sense next to him in that scenario.<\/p>\n

James van Riemsdyk has been better than his numbers show, especially in terms of his poise with the puck, so I\u2019m inclined to say him on one side. And then I would imagine Michael Rasmussen\u2019s length and defensive impact (particularly on the resurgent penalty kill) would give him the inside track over Elmer S\u00f6derblom and Jonatan Berggren for the other spot \u2014 though both of the latter two have had some nice games of late<\/p>\n

I could also see an argument to put van Riemsdyk with Copp and Danielson, and Appleton with Compher and Rasmussen as a true checking line.<\/p>\n

Maybe the Red Wings will leave Danielson down for a longer run. But I\u2019m inclined to think he\u2019ll be up at some point, and that will create some interesting options (and decisions) for Todd McLellan.<\/p>\n

What has gotten into Eddie Genborg? \u2014 Matt S.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think anyone saw Genborg\u2019s start in the SHL coming. I can\u2019t say I\u2019ve had much time to watch Timr\u00e5 yet this season \u2014 though I will make time soon \u2014 but the 18-year-old has seven goals and 13 points in 18 games in the SHL, producing at the same rate as last year\u2019s No. 3 pick, Anton Frondell.<\/p>\n

Now, that doesn\u2019t mean Genborg \u2014 a second-round pick in 2025 \u2014 projects to be at the same level as Frondell when in the NHL. But the SHL is a hard league to produce in as an 18-year-old. Kasper had 23 points in 52 games at the same age.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still early, and we\u2019ll have to see how Genborg\u2019s production holds up as the year goes on. But it\u2019s encouraging what he\u2019s been able to do so far.<\/p>\n

Is Max Plante just on an early-season heater, or is he one of the top offensive talents in the NCAA? \u2014 Matt R.<\/p>\n

Considering Plante also had 28 points in 23 games as a freshman last season, I think it\u2019d be hard to write it off as just an early-season heater. He\u2019s been one of the top NCAA scorers for close to a full year now. Currently, he leads the nation with 19 points (nine goals, 10 assists) in 10 games.<\/p>\n

Plante has been a featured offensive piece at the NTDP previously, and his hockey sense is legit. I also find him to be an impressive competitor, and while he\u2019s not the tallest, he has some good weight to him. For me, that tool kit makes him one of the most projectable playmaking wingers Detroit has in its system (ahead of, for example, Dmitri Buchelnikov).<\/p>\n

He\u2019ll need to stay healthy, but I\u2019m a believer in Plante as a potential middle-six playmaker.<\/p>\n

Are you a \u201cbig hall\u201d or \u201csmall hall\u201d when it comes to the Hall of Fame? And does Henrik Zetterberg belong in the hall in your opinion? The main argument I\u2019ve heard for him is more about who\u2019s already made it rather than his own resume. \u2014 Chris N.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not so much that I believe in a \u201cbig hall\u201d in the abstract \u2014 I\u2019m not saying they should induct 10 players a year, every year \u2014 but I do think there are a healthy number of deserving players who aren\u2019t in, and Zetterberg would absolutely be one of those.<\/p>\n

He was an era-defining player for one of the best teams of his era. I hear what you\u2019re saying about his own resume vs. those who have already made it in, but aren\u2019t the two related? Zetterberg\u2019s career spanned from 2002-2018, and in those years, only five players scored more points than him: Joe Thornton, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin and the Sedin twins.<\/p>\n

The Sedins are already in. Thornton will go in on Monday. Crosby and Ovechkin are borderline Mount Rushmore players \u2014 guaranteed to go in unanimously on their first ballot. And the next two players behind Zetterberg on that list are Martin St. Louis and Jarome Iginla, both of whom are already in.<\/p>\n

So, if that\u2019s the company Zetterberg was keeping as a player, why should he be left out when it comes to the Hall? He may not have as much individual hardware as some of those names, but he does have five top-10 finishes for the Selke, a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2008.<\/p>\n

And, by the way, he\u2019s one of just 30 players who have won a Stanley Cup, a gold medal at the World Championship and Olympic gold.<\/p>\n

Zetterberg may not have been a statistical compiler, but he was an all-time winner and one of the very best players of his era \u2014 both in the NHL and internationally. He belongs in the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s been a fast, fun start to the season for the Detroit Red Wings. At 9-5-0, the Red…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275345,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[1786,385,99],"class_list":["post-275344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-detroit-red-wings","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275344\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}