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<\/p>\nEnce’s prediction: Expect USF to dictate the pace and get just about anything it wants offensively.<\/p>\n
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Nov 6, 2025 \u2022 16:25 ET<\/p>\n
\u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n
Photo By – Imagn Images. South Florida Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown (17) runs the ball during the first quarter.<\/p>\n
South Florida hosts UTSA on Thursday night in a game the Bulls need to keep their AAC and CFP hopes alive. They\u2019re coming off a loss to Memphis but get the benefit of extra rest, while UTSA arrives riding high after dominating Tulane.<\/p>\n
I explain why I\u2019m backing the home team\u2019s explosive offense in my UTSA vs. South Florida predictions and college football picks<\/a> for Thursday, November 6.<\/p>\n Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed? UTSA vs South Florida prediction<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida best bet: South Florida -13.5 (-115)<\/p>\n Don\u2019t be fooled by the UTSA Roadrunners<\/a> beating Tulane last week. That\u2019s not to discount the victory over a solid squad, but a 22-point victory flattered them.<\/p>\n For starters, Tulane gifted them a score with a fumble on its own side of the field, and the following drive dropped a touchdown pass on third down before missing a short field goal. Two badly forced throws led to interceptions, helping the Roadrunners get the home win.<\/p>\n Still, the underlying metrics show this UTSA defense is pretty bad. Tulane posted a 13% explosive play rate, which ranked in the Top 15 for the week nationally. The Green Wave also posted a Top-15 success rate on offense with a mark of 51%.<\/p>\n That\u2019s because UTSA gives away explosive plays like candy on Halloween. And I don\u2019t mean the fun-sized stuff. More like the house in the rich neighborhood that hands out full-sized Snickers.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Roadrunners rank almost dead last in explosive play rate against. They\u2019re allowing opponents to hit big runs at a clip of 8.3% on the year.<\/p>\n Now they face a South Florida Bulls<\/a> team ranked in the Top 30 nationally in explosive run rate, clocking in at 9.1%. Byrum Brown leads an offense that averages 5.3 yards per carry, 14th in the nation, and ranks 29th in EPA\/rush.\u00a0<\/p>\n UTSA\u2019s pass defense is quite bad, and its offense won\u2019t do enough to keep up with USF\u2019s balanced attack. Add in the fact that the Bulls have a vastly superior track record at defending the red zone, and you have a recipe for another big Bulls win.<\/p>\n USF is 6-2 ATS this season and 3-0 ATS when favored by double digits. UTSA has failed to cover in each of its last three games on the road. Take the Bulls to cover the two-touchdown gap.<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida same-game parlay<\/p>\n Brown has rushed for at least 82 yards in each of his last four games, hitting the century mark in three of them. UTSA\u2019s defense allows 4.07 yards after contact on the run \u2014 the second-most in the nation.<\/p>\n USF ranks 12th in calling designed QB runs at a rate of 28.9%, and Brown has at least one run of 20+ yards in six of his eight games. He\u2019ll have another big day against a UTSA defense that let Jake Retzlaff go for 63 yards on just seven carries.\u00a0<\/p>\n While USF will cover, I don\u2019t expect UTSA to get shut down offensively. Owen McCown is coming off a career game where he completed 31 of 33 attempts for 370 yards and four touchdowns.<\/p>\n He’s thrown 234+ passing yards in three of his last four games, and USF has an average defense against the pass while playing solidly against the run. McCown rarely scrambles or gets sacked, and will use the short passing game to nickel and dime his way Over this total. <\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida SGP<\/p>\n South Florida -13.5 Our deep-ball SGP: Yards, yards, yards!<\/p>\n These two offenses are going to put up points, especially the Bulls. And with how many explosive plays UTSA allows, we\u2019ll see them put up in bunches. USF will hit the Over for the sixth time in seven games.<\/p>\n Devin McCuin is McCown\u2019s favorite target, with 50+ yards in all but two games \u2014 the blowout win over North Texas and the loss to Texas A&M. He\u2019s coming off an eight-catch, 96-yard performance and should hit the 60-yard plateau for the fourth time in five outings.\u00a0<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida SGP<\/p>\n South Florida -13.5 UTSA vs South Florida game predictions The Bulls have just two defeats this season, losing at Miami and at Memphis. With extra rest and multiple players getting back to health, they\u2019ll get the win at home against an inferior opponent. <\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida spread prediction<\/p>\n I\u2019m all in on USF covering the spread. The Bulls are 3-0 ATS this season as double-digit favorites and have an explosive offense that will punish UTSA\u2019s leaky defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida Over\/Under prediction<\/p>\n Give me all the points. The total has gotten fairly high at 67.5, but USF\u2019s offense puts up points and numbers, while the defense will allow some big plays to UTSA.<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida odds<\/p>\n Spread: UTSA +13.5 | South Florida -13.5 UTSA vs South Florida trend to know<\/p>\n UTSA has cashed the Over in nine of their last 12 games for +5.70 units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends<\/a> for UTSA vs South Florida.<\/p>\n How to watch UTSA vs South Florida<\/p>\n Location Date Kickoff TV UTSA vs South Florida latest injuries<\/p>\n UTSA vs South Florida weather<\/p>\n
Simply click here<\/a> and add Covers as one of your “source preferences”.<\/p>\n
\nByrum Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards
\nOwen McCown Over 245.5 passing yards<\/p>\n
\nByrum Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards
\nOwen McCown Over 245.5 passing yards
\nOver 67.5
\nDevin McCuin Over 59.5 receiving yards<\/p>\n
\nUTSA vs South Florida moneyline prediction<\/p>\n
\nMoneyline: UTSA +400 | South Florida -550
\nOver\/Under: Over 67.5 | Under 67.5<\/p>\n
\nRaymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL<\/p>\n
\nThursday, November 6, 2025<\/p>\n
\n7:30 p.m. ET<\/p>\n
\nESPN<\/p>\n