{"id":277450,"date":"2025-11-07T15:14:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T15:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/277450\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T15:14:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T15:14:13","slug":"by-the-numbers-heres-what-needs-to-happen-in-a-budget-vote-to-avoid-an-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/277450\/","title":{"rendered":"By the numbers: Here&#8217;s what needs to happen in a budget vote to avoid an election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/a\/assets\/texttospeech.svg\" alt=\"Text to Speech Icon\" width=\"44\" height=\"44\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Listen to this article<\/p>\n<p>Estimated 6 minutes<\/p>\n<p>The audio version of this article is generated by text-to-speech, a technology based on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s government was elected just a few seats shy of a majority, meaning the Liberals will need the co-operation of one of the opposition parties to pass their budget.<\/p>\n<p>The budget is considered a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if it fails to pass and Canada would be heading for a second election this year.<\/p>\n<p>While the Liberals gained an extra vote on the same day the budget dropped, \u2014 via former Conservative MP Chris d\u2019Entremont crossing the floor \u2014 the Liberals are still a couple votes short of a majority in the House. <\/p>\n<p>Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux also announced Thursday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/conservative-matt-jeneroux-resigns-9.6970100\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">he will resign as an MP<\/a> \u2014 but it&#8217;s unclear when his resignation will take effect.<\/p>\n<p>The government survived one confidence vote on Thursday evening \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/budget-confidence-vote-9.6969833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a Conservative amendment<\/a> that called on the House to reject the budget. A similar vote on a Bloc amendment is taking place Friday.<\/p>\n<p>The budget itself will be put to a vote sometime after Remembrance Day.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s how the votes need to land for Carney\u2019s budget to pass \u2014 and avoid sending Canadians back to the polls.<\/p>\n<p>If Bloc backs Liberals<\/p>\n<p>With 22 seats, the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois has more than enough seats to get the Liberal budget over the finish line.<\/p>\n<p>The Liberals currently have 170 seats, but that includes the Speaker who would only vote to break a tie. Therefore the Liberals have 169 votes from their own ranks.<\/p>\n<p>Combined, the Liberals and Bloc have 191 seats, which would outvote the Conservatives, NDP and Greens.<\/p>\n<p>But the Liberals will likely need to make changes if they want to get the Bloc onside.<\/p>\n<p>Leader Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet moved an amendment that the House \u201creject\u201d the budget because it failed to meet the Bloc\u2019s demands. Blanchet also said on budget day that he could \u201chardly see\u201d how his party could back the budget.<\/p>\n<p>But the government can still make changes to the budget before further votes come \u2014 and it already includes a nugget that one Bloc MP <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/carney-budget-carrots-votes-9.6968331\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">might find hard to reject<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The budget includes support for the Exploramer Shark Pavilion in Sainte-Anne-des-Monts, Que., and the Chantier Naval Forillon shipyard in Gasp\u00e9 \u2014 both of which are in Alexis Desch\u00eanes\u2019s riding, potentially offering incentive for the new MP to allow the budget to move through the House.<\/p>\n<p>If NDP votes for budget<\/p>\n<p>Despite having lost recognized party status in the House, the NDP still has some leverage with just seven seats.<\/p>\n<p>If New Democrats vote in favour of the budget, those two parties could outvote the others 176 to 166.<\/p>\n<p>NDP interim Leader Don Davies said Wednesday that his party has \u201cserious concerns\u201d and &#8220;questions&#8221; about the budget but indicated the party is still weighing its options.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe budget\u2019s low on a lot of details and so we\u2019re going to be consulting stakeholders and seeking answers to some of those questions as we deliberate,\u201d he told reporters on Parliament Hill.<\/p>\n<p>The budget also includes a number of items which target a handful of NDP ridings \u2014 including Davies\u2019s \u2014 which could be enough to sway at least some New Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>If Greens back budget<\/p>\n<p>Leader Elizabeth May is the Green Party&#8217;s only vote in the House.<\/p>\n<p>May said Tuesday that she couldn\u2019t support Carney\u2019s budget unless there are improvements to the climate policies outlined in the document.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m asking the prime minister to think about the fact that he&#8217;s not the CEO of a company called Canada,&#8221; May told reporters. &#8220;He&#8217;s the prime minister of this country, with a minority government.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But even if the Liberals can get May on board, her lone vote won\u2019t be enough to make a difference without another opposition MP.<\/p>\n<p>The Conservatives, Bloc and NDP\u2019s 172 seats would be enough to outvote the 169 Liberal MPs and May \u2014 meaning the budget and government would be defeated and an election would be imminent.<\/p>\n<p>Opposition parties all vote against<\/p>\n<p>This scenario is simple. The Liberals don\u2019t have enough seats on their own to pass the budget.<\/p>\n<p>If the Liberals fail to convince any opposition MPs, the budget will be voted down, the government will be deemed to have lost the confidence of the House and Canadians will be heading for the polls.<\/p>\n<p>If NDP or Bloc members abstain<\/p>\n<p>MPs aren&#8217;t required to vote on every item before the House, and can opt to abstain.<\/p>\n<p>As has happened several times, parties sometimes abstain from a confidence vote if they don&#8217;t want to support the government but also don&#8217;t want to force an election.<\/p>\n<p>If Desch\u00eanes or a few NDP MPs want the budget to pass to ensure their ridings get the support the budget is offering \u2014 but don\u2019t want to break party ranks and support the Liberals \u2014 they could simply not show up to vote.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, either party could abstain as a whole to prevent another election.<\/p>\n<p>If the Bloc caucus opts out of a vote, the Liberals would still have enough seats to outvote the remaining opposition parties \u2014 169 to 151.<\/p>\n<p>If the NDP caucus abstains as a whole, the Liberals would win the vote 169 to 166.<\/p>\n<p>Other scenarios<\/p>\n<p>All the above scenarios assume that votes are whipped, meaning MPs are rallied by their party&#8217;s leadership to vote as a block.<\/p>\n<p>But in some circumstances parties allow for a &#8220;free vote,&#8221; when MPs are allowed to vote their conscience. In such cases, whether that bill or motion passes will depend on individual MPs.<\/p>\n<p>An opposition party could also play a bit of a numbers game if they want to have their dissent recorded. Rather than have the entire caucus abstain, a party could theoretically have MPs show up to vote against the government, but have enough of their MPs sit it out so as not to trigger an election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Listen to this article Estimated 6 minutes The audio version of this article is generated by text-to-speech, a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":277451,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-277450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/277451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}