{"id":285632,"date":"2025-11-11T16:53:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T16:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/285632\/"},"modified":"2025-11-11T16:53:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T16:53:10","slug":"what-if-2025-26-becomes-a-lost-season-for-the-blues-would-gavin-mckenna-offset-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/285632\/","title":{"rendered":"What if 2025-26 becomes a lost season for the Blues? Would Gavin McKenna offset it?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ST. LOUIS \u2014 Last January, the St. Louis Blues hosted the Calgary Flames for a rare twofer of home games at Enterprise Center. The Flames held the No. 2 wild-card spot in the Western Conference playoff race, and the Blues were five points back.<\/p>\n<p>Jim Montgomery\u2019s team answered with two resounding wins to stay within reach of a playoff spot, which they eventually captured with an incredible run after the 4 Nations Face-Off.<\/p>\n<p>Calgary will be back in St. Louis on Tuesday, and the landscape looks a lot different.<\/p>\n<p>The Blues are second-to-last in the NHL standings with 13 points, and if not for the Flames (10 points), they\u2019d be in the cellar. Even if you\u2019re not an optimist who felt they could contend for a top spot in the Central Division this season, few \u2014 if any \u2014 would\u2019ve predicted they\u2019d be sitting near the bottom of the league in mid-November.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing has carried from the end of the 2024-25 season, though:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 The Blues won 12 consecutive home games last season. They are 2-4-3 at home this season.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 In 26 regular-season games following 4 Nations, top-six forwards Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Pavel Buchnevich and Brayden Schenn combined for 47 goals and 130 points. In 16 games this season, they have 14 and 38.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 In the same 26 games following 4 Nations, Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer combined for a .920 save percentage, which ranked No. 9 in the NHL in that span. Through 16 games this season, they have an .883 save percentage, which is fourth-worst in the league.<\/p>\n<p>This is just scratching the surface on the Blues\u2019 perilous position. Slow starts, sluggish second periods and a problematic penalty kill are among the other storylines.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to fathom how far the Blues have fallen, and even Montgomery recently admitted that he expected more carryover from \u201924-25.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI thought that the work ethic, the communication that was happening on the ice player-to-player, the confidence on the ice, the confidence in the room as far as how we\u2019re going about our business, would be a little bit augmented from what we\u2019ve seen so far,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>With just one winning streak (two games) and a seven-game skid (0-5-2), there have been no indications of that augmentation, and with each defeat \u2014 take your pick from a blown four-goal lead in Detroit or a last-second loss against Seattle \u2014 it\u2019s getting more difficult to believe any improvement is coming without changes. Not impossible, as we\u2019ve learned with the Blues in recent years, but more difficult to believe.<\/p>\n<p>If a move is made, it won\u2019t be with general manager Doug Armstrong, who\u2019s already announced he\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/5562206\/2024\/06\/13\/blues-gm-succession-armstrong-steen\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">stepping down as GM<\/a> after the season and giving way to Alexander Steen (though Armstrong will be staying as president of hockey operations). It won\u2019t be with Montgomery, who signed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/5943689\/2024\/11\/24\/blues-jim-montgomery-drew-bannister\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a five-year contract<\/a> when he was hired last November.<\/p>\n<p>It will have to be with the roster.<\/p>\n<p>For years, Armstrong has successfully built core groups of players who helped the Blues contend for the playoffs. Meanwhile, he had a sub-core coming up the ranks \u2014 first it was Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz, then it was Thomas and Kyrou \u2014 so there was always someone to take over with little drop-off. When the club got to the point where it could win a Stanley Cup, he traded for Ryan O\u2019Reilly and signed David Perron, Tyler Bozak and Pat Maroon \u2014 and, of course, it worked in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>But as Armstrong attempts to usher in the next sub-core, featuring Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalibor Dvorsky, it\u2019s become evident that even with the hiring of Montgomery, the additions of Holloway and Philip Broberg, and the signing of Pius Suter, the Blues aren\u2019t a resilient team with a core that can carry the franchise until those top draft picks are ready.<\/p>\n<p>The current core \u2014 Schenn, Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Binnington, Oskar Sundqvist, Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk \u2014 has come into question. A few are players in their prime who were paid in advance to produce. A few are aging veterans on long-term contracts whose best years are behind them. But the bottom line is it\u2019s not working.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-6796575 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/GettyImages-2245225573-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Brayden Schenn looks into the distance with Pius Suter in the background.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      Captain Brayden Schenn has fewer points in 16 games (six) than he had goals in last season\u2019s stretch run (seven). (Patrick Smith \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>To be clear, it\u2019s not just them. Holloway, a pending restricted free agent who will be handsomely paid soon, hasn\u2019t been himself, regardless of whether it\u2019s because he\u2019s coming off a significant surgery. Hofer, who got a two-year, $6.8 million deal last summer, has struggled. Cam Fowler, who signed a three-year, $18.3 million contract extension after coming over from the Anaheim Ducks, has been quiet.<\/p>\n<p>But they\u2019ll likely be sticking around, so the focus will be on the core \u2014 and with the number of no-trade clauses involved, it could be a challenge.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a list of Blues players with no-trade protection, along with their average annual value, how many years are left on their deals after 2025-26 and their current NTC status:<\/p>\n<p>Blues\u2019 no-trade clauses<br \/>\n                    PlayerAgeAAVTermNo-trade?<\/p>\n<p>27<\/p>\n<p>$8.125M<\/p>\n<p>6<\/p>\n<p>Full NTC<\/p>\n<p>26<\/p>\n<p>$8.125M<\/p>\n<p>6<\/p>\n<p>Full NTC<\/p>\n<p>30<\/p>\n<p>$8M<\/p>\n<p>5<\/p>\n<p>Full NTC<\/p>\n<p>32<\/p>\n<p>$6.5M<\/p>\n<p>5<\/p>\n<p>Full NTC<\/p>\n<p>34<\/p>\n<p>$6.5M<\/p>\n<p>3<\/p>\n<p>15 teams<\/p>\n<p>33<\/p>\n<p>$6.5M<\/p>\n<p>2<\/p>\n<p>15 teams<\/p>\n<p>33<\/p>\n<p>$4M<\/p>\n<p>4<\/p>\n<p>4 teams<\/p>\n<p>32<\/p>\n<p>$6M<\/p>\n<p>2<\/p>\n<p>14 teams<\/p>\n<p>34<\/p>\n<p>$6.5M<\/p>\n<p>2<\/p>\n<p>15 teams<\/p>\n<p>        * Long-term injured reserve<br \/>Source: Puckpedia<\/p>\n<p>The Athletic has confirmed a recent report by Frank Seravalli that Armstrong has told GMs that he\u2019s \u201copen for business.\u201d But Armstrong has made that known in plenty of past seasons, too, and made no significant subtractions from his roster, so it can also be seen as a way to motivate his players.<\/p>\n<p>At least one team has inquired on Kyrou, per a league source, after he was made\u00a0<a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6784941\/2025\/11\/06\/blues-jordan-kyrou-healthy-scratch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6784941\/2025\/11\/06\/blues-jordan-kyrou-healthy-scratch\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">a healthy scratch<\/a> against the Buffalo Sabres last week.\u00a0It\u2019s not known if the Blues have any intention of moving Kyrou, who was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6464121\/2025\/07\/01\/blues-kyrou-no-trade-clause-carbonneau-camp\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">subject of trade speculation<\/a> last summer before his no-trade clause kicked in July 1, or what the club would be asking in return. But he would have to approve any deal.<\/p>\n<p>Schenn is another possibility. The captain attracted a lot of attention at the NHL trade deadline last March and could\u2019ve been dealt, but he told the Blues he wanted to stay. With the season going the way it has, though, Schenn may now entertain the idea, and while his leadership was recently praised by Montgomery, moving on from anyone with trade value may be necessary as part of a bigger overhaul.<\/p>\n<p>How soon, though, would the Blues be willing to pull the plug if that\u2019s the direction they go? We\u2019re only two months into the season, and the team is only five points out of a wild-card spot in the West. But unlike last season, when they were chasing a couple of clubs ahead of them in the standings, they\u2019re looking up at seven teams between them and the second wild card.<\/p>\n<p>Also, we\u2019re still four months away from the March 6 NHL trade deadline. Even if the Blues know what they want to do, other teams are still settling into the season and aren\u2019t sure yet what kind of moves they\u2019ll want to make. It makes it even more complicated when we\u2019re talking about players with term left.<\/p>\n<p>This is the question: Will it be a lost season if the Blues miss the playoffs after their near-upset of the Winnipeg Jets last April?<\/p>\n<p>The simple answer is \u201cyes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There were high expectations heading into this season, and even if the Blues didn\u2019t live up to those, making the playoffs a second straight year would have been a positive step. Despite their excruciating first-round exit last season, players like Snuggerud and Jake Neighbours gained valuable experience. And despite another mid-first-round pick in the NHL Draft last summer, forward Justin Carbonneau appears to be a good find at No. 19.<\/p>\n<p>What would it mean for the organization\u2019s trajectory?<\/p>\n<p>If the Blues aren\u2019t in the postseason, the younger players on the roster, including Dvorsky, will have to wait another year. But as far as their first-round draft pick in 2026, that could be much higher, which would be welcome news to a lot of fans.<\/p>\n<p>The New York Islanders\u2019 Matthew Schaefer, who was the No. 1 pick in June, is off to a Calder Trophy-caliber season as a defenseman. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks\u2019 Macklin Celebrini (No. 1 in 2024) and Chicago Blackhawks\u2019 Connor Bedard (No. 1 in 2023) are top-line centers and among the league\u2019s top four scorers.<\/p>\n<p>Meet Gavin McKenna, who was No. 1 on Scott Wheeler\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6737460\/2025\/11\/05\/nhl-draft-2026-prospects-ranking-wheeler-preliminary\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">preliminary rankings<\/a> of the top 64 players in the 2026 Draft. The 17-year-old left winger is playing at Penn State this season and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6789978\/2025\/11\/08\/gavin-mckenna-penn-state-nhl-draft-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">has shown<\/a> why he\u2019s projected to be the next No. 1.<\/p>\n<p>Would the arrival of McKenna or one of Wheeler\u2019s other projected top-five picks offset a down season in St. Louis, along with missed playoff experience and revenue? It would for a lot of fans.<\/p>\n<p>Armstrong has been reluctant to orchestrate a complete rebuild, arguing that stripping the franchise down to the studs for a chance to pick a player who might make a difference may not be worth the pain. That\u2019s understandable. The current team also might miss out on opportunities like last season. What if the Blues had gotten past Winnipeg? Yeah, they might\u2019ve lost to the Dallas Stars in the second round, but it\u2019s easier to keep the fan base engaged and encouraged when the club is playing into May instead of packing up in April.<\/p>\n<p>But what if it\u2019s an unintended one-off? The Blues made a legitimate effort to compete for a playoff spot, but what if it is unexpectedly turning into a season in which the McKenna sweepstakes is more likely? It\u2019s not that far-fetched, as <a href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/predictions.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">MoneyPuck<\/a> currently has their odds of receiving the No. 1 pick (9.9 percent) higher than their odds of making the playoffs (9.5 percent). And according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.puckpedia.com\/team\/st-louis-blues\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">PuckPedia<\/a>, they will have about $25 million in cap space next offseason to supplement the roster.<\/p>\n<p>This is not what\u2019s on the mind of Montgomery and his players at the moment. They\u2019ve absorbed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6790750\/2025\/11\/09\/blues-kraken-goalie-interference-jim-montgomery\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">some tough blows lately<\/a>, but they\u2019ve also earned points in three of their past four games, four of their past six and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6774085\/2025\/11\/05\/blues-analytics-early-season-skid-goaltending\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">believe the analytics<\/a> still point in their favor.<\/p>\n<p>But at this point in the season, with how much has changed since Calgary\u2019s last trip to town 11 months ago, it\u2019s not wrong to wonder about the possibilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ST. LOUIS \u2014 Last January, the St. Louis Blues hosted the Calgary Flames for a rare twofer of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":285633,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99,1610],"class_list":["post-285632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-sports","tag-st-louis-blues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/285633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}