{"id":28809,"date":"2025-07-22T14:13:08","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T14:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/28809\/"},"modified":"2025-07-22T14:13:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T14:13:08","slug":"mlbs-luckiest-and-unluckiest-first-half-teams-time-to-buy-low-on-the-yankees-and-red-sox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/28809\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB\u2019s luckiest and unluckiest first-half teams: Time to buy low on the Yankees and Red Sox?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With MLB\u2019s All-Star break in the rearview mirror, we\u2019re heading into a roughly 10-week, 60-game sprint to the finish, culminating in the start of October baseball. A lot can and will change during that stretch, from the looming trade deadline on July 31<\/a> to the usual churn of injuries and hot\/cold streaks. And as we\u2019ve seen time and again, even bad teams can pose as good ones (or vice-versa)<\/a> over any given 60-game span.<\/p>\n

But one of the biggest factors that can still shape the season is luck: Who has it, who\u2019s due for more of it and who might be running out of it. It\u2019s uncomfortable to admit this, but randomness plays a huge role in shaping the standings, sometimes accounting for as much as two-thirds of the variation<\/a> between teams\u2019 records. And with fewer dominant teams than usual at the break<\/a>, this season has been ruled by fortune, good or bad, more than most in recent memory.<\/p>\n

So what does luck actually look like<\/a> on the field? Sometimes it\u2019s players putting together unexpected career years<\/a>, though that\u2019s harder to untangle from smarter player development<\/a> in the era of data-driven coaching and scouting. But the most tried-and-true indicators involve teams outperforming their expected records, either by winning more than their run differential suggests (typically thanks to clutch and\/or bullpen-driven wins in close games), or by producing more favorable sequencing<\/a> \u2014 clustering hits together to score more runs than expected, or scattering opponents\u2019 hits to keep them off the scoreboard.<\/p>\n

Using FanGraphs\u2019 BaseRuns model<\/a>, which estimates how many runs a team \u201cshould\u201d score and allow based on its raw stats \u2014 along with Pythagorean winning percentage<\/a> to estimate expected record based on run differential \u2014 we can break down both types of luck. And once we identify the luckiest and unluckiest teams, we can then dig into whether there are any good buy-low futures opportunities. <\/p>\n

After converting the run-based effects into wins (using a standard exchange rate<\/a>), here are the teams that benefited most \u2014 and least \u2014 from luck in the first half:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Luckiest Teams:1. Toronto Blue Jays, +6.4 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks (more = luckier): Close games 2nd | Offense 10th | Defense 16th<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t mean to downplay the Blue Jays\u2019 revival<\/a>, one of the best stories of the first half. And while Toronto did look like one of the most improved teams<\/a> of the 2024-25 offseason, it has been hardly lucky in the performance of its headline acquisitions \u2014 Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, etc., all of whom are on track for many fewer WAR than expected. Instead, the Jays\u2019 largest source of good fortune has been in converting run differential to wins: at +17 through the break, they were tied for 15th in scoring margin despite having MLB\u2019s seventh-best record. Toronto had the league\u2019s second-best record (38-21) in games decided by three runs or fewer, including a 17-12 mark in one-run games, but was below .500 (17-20) in games with a margin of at least four runs \u2014 a split between close games and blowouts that fueled one of the biggest disparities between a team\u2019s actual and Pythagorean records.<\/p>\n

2. Baltimore Orioles, +6.2 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 4th | Offense 14th | Defense 8th<\/p>\n

It\u2019s bizarre thinking of the Orioles as having been \u201clucky\u201d to start the 2025 season \u2014 if anything, it\u2019s felt like anything that could go wrong would, especially early in the schedule<\/a>. While Baltimore has been better recently, going 27-18<\/a> from late May through the break, its playoff odds remain microscopic<\/a>. So what\u2019s been so lucky? According to the Pythagorean expectation, the O\u2019s have the fourth-biggest split between their actual and expected records, thanks to a record 2 games over .500 (12-10) in one-run games and 11 runs below .500 (31-42) in multi-run contests. (Even during that recent eight-week improvement, they ranked 14th in Pythagorean win percentage despite ranking fifth in record.) Add in a pitching\/defense corps allowing 13 fewer runs than predicted, and the O\u2019s have more than six extra wins compared with what we\u2019d expect from their season-long stats.<\/p>\n

3. Los Angeles Angels, +5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 1st | Offense 9th | Defense 21st<\/p>\n

At 47-49 heading into the ASG break, the Halos found themselves sitting surprisingly close to .500 \u2014 a level they haven\u2019t reached over a full season in a whole decade<\/a> (since 2015). Some of that, however, was driven by a huge disparity between their record in one-run games (18-11, fourth best in MLB) and multi-run contests (29-38, seventh worst). Sometimes, massive splits like these can be partly explained by elite relief pitching \u2014 but that\u2019s not the case for the Angels\u2019 bullpen, which ranked 28th in WAR, with closer Kenley Jansen and his setup men rating as average at best by ERA and\/or FIP. Another aspect of L.A.\u2019s good fortune was an offense that ranked 19th in scoring despite sitting slightly below that in wRC+<\/a> (21st) and hitting WAR (22nd). Although the Angels lost some ground in luck on the other side of the ball, allowing 8.6 more runs than BaseRuns would predict, the net effect was a team that exceeded its expected wins overall.<\/p>\n

4. Los Angeles Dodgers, +5.4 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 7th | Offense 3rd | Defense 12th<\/p>\n

For the teams above, the majority of their overperformance came from winning more close games than we\u2019d expect from their records in multi-run games. And the Dodgers went into the break with a bit of a split there, but not really too much of one. (Yes, they went 17-11 in 1-run contests, but they also had the league\u2019s third-best record in games decided by two or more, at 41-28.) Just as large a contributing factor to their fourth-place showing in the luck column, then, was an offense that scored nearly 20 more runs than expected, thanks to one of the league\u2019s largest OPS differentials<\/a> with two outs and runners in scoring position versus overall, plus a run-prevention unit that benefited from timely stranded runners. (Of their nine most frequently used starters, seven had a left-on-base percentage above the league average.) L.A. has been unlucky in other regards, such as injuries<\/a>, and it is a team to be feared in the postseason, but some of this run-differential luck might regress by season\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

5. Cleveland Guardians, +4.9 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 5th | Offense 17th | Defense 9th<\/p>\n

Like with Baltimore, there\u2019s nothing that feels especially fortunate about the way Cleveland\u2019s 2025 season has played out: One of the best teams by record a year ago, the Guardians have struggled with their offense and once-dominant bullpen en route to a slightly below .500 record at the break and flagging playoff odds<\/a>. But somehow, matters could be even worse if they were not 34-25 in games decided by three runs or fewer, versus 12-24 in all other contests \u2014 a record that ranked only ahead of the Rockies\u2019 abysmal 5-33 tally in such games. And although their luck broke even exactly on offense, Cleveland pitchers allowed 12.4 fewer runs than expected, headlined by LOB percentage rates either at or above average for all six of the Guardians\u2019 primary starters. So not only will Cleveland have to overcome a long list of teams ahead of it in the standings, but also it will have to fight off any slowdown from its luck wearing off.<\/p>\n

Unluckiest Teams:30. New York Yankees, -7.9 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks (more = luckier): Close games 30th | Offense 16th | Defense 27th<\/p>\n

The Aaron Boone-era Yankees are a fascinating, ongoing test case in whether luck-based stats like these can ever truly regress back to where we\u2019d expect them to be. On the one hand, I (and others) have been complaining about New York\u2019s lack of fundamentals<\/a> for years, citing them as a primary reason the team doesn\u2019t always have the record its talent and underlying stats would predict. However, this year\u2019s splits are so pronounced that some kind of positive regression seems inevitable. (An eight-win luck shortfall in 96 games is truly enormous.) The Yankees were just 13-18 in one-run games in the first half, and 18-26 in those decided by two runs or fewer, while they were a league-best 35-17 in games with a margin of three runs or more. Performance in blowouts is a strong predictor of future success, and New York\u2019s improvement potential is further bolstered by the fact that pinstriped pitchers have allowed 17.3 more runs than expected via BaseRuns. While some of New York\u2019s bad luck may be unfixable, a differential like this is extreme.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

29. Colorado Rockies, -7.2 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 23rd | Offense 29th | Defense 28th<\/p>\n

When it comes to historically good or \u2014 in this case \u2014 bad teams, it takes luck on top of talent (or the lack thereof). So, although the 2025 Rockies are legitimately one of the worst teams in MLB history, and they\u2019ll be a threat down the stretch to challenge the 2024 White Sox\u2019s record for most losses in a modern season (at 121), Colorado also rode some misfortune to get to its 22-74 mark at the break. The shortfalls came across the board: The Rockies were the only team in the first half to lose at least two wins of luck from close games (they were predicted to be a marginally less-horrendous 24-72 based on their run differential), two wins of luck from offensive sequencing (their OPS was 17 percent worse<\/a> with two outs and RISP) and two wins of luck from bunching too many hits on the other side of the ball (no team has a lower rate<\/a> of stranding runners). This Colorado team would have been in the worst-ever conversation regardless of its luck \u2026 but that luck is not doing the Rockies any favors, either.<\/p>\n

28. Texas Rangers, -5.8 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 29th | Offense 12th | Defense 19th<\/p>\n

Unlike Colorado, Texas is an example of a team where neutral luck would make a huge difference to the complexion of its season. As things stood at the break, the Rangers went in with a disappointing sub-.500 (48-49) record and playoff odds around 20 percent. But they also had MLB\u2019s sixth-best record (22-14) in games decided by four or more runs, despite its sixth-worst record (26-35) in games decided by three runs or fewer \u2014 including 14-17 in one-run games specifically \u2014 which helps explain why their Pythagorean record of 54-43 would have had them sitting in the American League\u2019s first wild-card spot at the break instead of 3.5 games back. The rest of Texas\u2019 luck profile is fairly neutral on balance, but its Pythagorean gap makes the team an easy stretch-run improvement pick.<\/p>\n

27. Atlanta Braves, -5.8 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 28th | Offense 27th | Defense 3rd<\/p>\n

Another of the most disappointing teams in MLB\u2019s first half, the Braves have been held back<\/a> by injuries as much as anything else, but their poor luck metrics are also leaving them in a much worse position than they would be otherwise. The All-Star hosts were six games underwater in their Pythagorean differential at the break, with a huge split between their record in close games (13-24 in one-run games, 17-32 in two-run games) and blowouts (25-21 in games decided by three or more runs). And while their pitchers redeemed them with one of the league\u2019s highest strand rates<\/a>, their batters hit .214 with two outs and RISP, scoring a whopping 22 fewer runs than expected from their overall stats. With the Braves buried in the wild-card standings, will any improvement be far too little, far too late?<\/p>\n

26. Boston Red Sox, -5.3 wins<\/p>\n

Luck ranks: Close games 22nd | Offense 11th | Defense 30th<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no surprise that the Red Sox are a baffling team on multiple levels \u2014 that\u2019s just who they always seem to be<\/a>. The same club that traded Rafael Devers to the Giants<\/a> in mid-June, then promptly went 16-9<\/a> (including a 10-game win streak going into the break), was also among baseball\u2019s unluckiest in the first half.<\/p>\n

Boston went 12-19 in one-run games (fifth worst in MLB) but 41-26 (second best) in multi-run contests, helping fuel a 2.2-win gap in Pythagorean versus actual records. The Red Sox also allowed a staggering 38.2 more runs than BaseRuns predicted they should have, by far the worst mark in the league \u2014 Washington was second worst at -28.8. <\/p>\n

So, even with an offense that scored 7.8 more runs than expected, the Red Sox came out more than five wins short of projected. As much as their recent dominance feels inexplicable<\/a>, this is an indicator that it might have more staying power than it seems once the luck straightens itself out. (If the Red Sox were a team that made any sense, that is.)<\/p>\n

TL;DR: Buy or Sell?In terms of what all of this means from a betting perspective, the Yankees are probably being undervalued by the market due to their bad luck \u2014 they only rank fourth in World Series odds<\/a> at FanDuel (third at BetMGM), for instance, despite easily ranking No. 1<\/a> in BaseRuns predicted winning percentage. A trio of our other unlucky teams \u2014 the Braves, Red Sox and Rangers \u2014 are also likely better than they\u2019re being given credit for. At the other end of the spectrum, the Dodgers are the greatest example of a team being treated like a juggernaut<\/a> despite solid but far from amazing BaseRuns numbers. The Blue Jays also look like a team to avoid the way they\u2019re being priced in the market currently. And though their actual records probably aren\u2019t warranting a lot of confidence as it is, resist the urge to view the Guardians and Orioles as sleeping-giant bounceback candidates \u2014 their underlying numbers were every bit as poor as their records would indicate in the first half.<\/p>\n

Neil Paine is a freelance writer whose work also appears regularly at ESPN.com, NASCAR.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sherwood News and his eponymous Substack. He is the former Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight, and was also an analytics consultant for the NBA\u2019s Atlanta Hawks.<\/p>\n

Betting\/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.<\/p>\n

(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen \/ The Athletic; Matthew Grimes Jr. \/ Getty, Tim Warner \/ Getty, Katherin Skeean \/ Getty)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With MLB\u2019s All-Star break in the rearview mirror, we\u2019re heading into a roughly 10-week, 60-game sprint to the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28810,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[2111,374,363,369,99,2208,2330],"class_list":["post-28809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-boston-red-sox","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-texas-rangers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}