{"id":291040,"date":"2025-11-14T11:46:14","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T11:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/291040\/"},"modified":"2025-11-14T11:46:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T11:46:14","slug":"jets-browns-giants-ranking-6-teams-most-likely-to-get-no-1-draft-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/291040\/","title":{"rendered":"Jets, Browns, Giants? Ranking 6 teams most likely to get No. 1 draft pick"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of Jets vs Patriots<\/a> in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football<\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n

The New York Jets versus the Cleveland Browns. Talk about a stinker, right? While last weekend\u2019s matchup certainly wasn\u2019t the highlight of Week 10, it might have been the most important game of the week \u2014 at least in one regard.<\/p>\n

That game between two NFL bottom-feeders went a long way in determining who would win the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Funny enough, the team that benefited the most wasn\u2019t even involved. It was the Tennessee Titans, who were on bye last week. The Jets\u2019 win over the Browns pushed Tennessee\u2019s odds of securing the top pick up from 25 percent to 35 percent. Meanwhile, the Jets\u2019 reward for winning their second game of the season was seeing their odds of securing the top pick drop from 39 percent to 26 percent.<\/p>\n

Of course, there\u2019s still plenty of time for the draft order to get shaken up. Heading into this Week 11, 12 teams have three wins or fewer, with nine of them still having at least a one percent chance at picking first in April. As the season winds down, each week will have huge ramifications on draft position, and some games, like the Browns against the Jets, are much more important than you might think.<\/p>\n

With that, we\u2019re going to take a look at the six teams with the best odds of securing that No. 1 pick and which games might have the biggest effect on the race. The data, as always, will be powered by my NFL Projection Model and can also be seen on our NFL Playoff Simulator\u2019s \u201c2026 Draft\u201d page. The awesome part about our new simulator is that you can play out the season for any team, selecting which games you think they will win or lose and seeing how those affect their draft odds. Go check it out.<\/a><\/p>\n

In the meantime, let\u2019s get back to the teams with the best odds of picking first in April.<\/p>\n

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Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t need a projection model to tell you why the Titans are the favorites to land the first pick for the second year in a row. They\u2019re the only team in the NFL with one win! My model gives them a 35 percent chance to \u201cearn\u201d the top pick, as their most likely end-of-season record<\/a> is 3-14 (2-15 isn\u2019t far off).<\/p>\n

Obviously, it\u2019s not great to have the No. 1 pick two years in a row, but with their franchise QB already on the roster (hopefully), it could give the Titans a chance to trade back to a QB-needy team and stockpile picks for their rebuild.<\/p>\n

The Titans face an average schedule the rest of the way, which includes matchups with three expected playoff teams \u2014 the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee also has a pair of huge games with draft implications coming against the Browns and the New Orleans Saints.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 14 at Browns, Week 17 vs. Saints<\/p>\n

New York Jets<\/p>\n

The Jets were the big sellers at the trade deadline last week, as they shipped cornerback Sauce Gardner to Indianapolis and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to Dallas. Without a franchise quarterback on the roster, it\u2019s not difficult to see why the team was comfortable selling for future assets. Unfortunately for the Jets\u2019 top-pick odds, they followed that up by beating the Browns. Either way, New York still sits in a prime position for the first pick at 26 percent.<\/p>\n

One thing working in the Jets\u2019 favor is that they face the sixth-hardest schedule the rest of the season, per my model. Two games remain against the New England Patriots, one in Baltimore and one in Buffalo, which should be four losses.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 14 vs. Miami Dolphins, Week 16 at Saints<\/p>\n

New York Giants<\/p>\n

The Giants are our second New York team in the top three \u2014 tough times in the Big Apple, eh? \u2014 and our second team that has already fired its coach (Titans). The axing of Brian Daboll this week shows you just how poorly the Giants have played this season, even with stellar production from first-round pick Jaxson Dart under center<\/a>. Dart is currently in the concussion protocol, and while that\u2019s obviously not good, his absence should help the Giants\u2019 draft odds.<\/p>\n

Entering Week 11, the Giants have a 12 percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick. They will face the 15th-hardest remaining schedule, per my model.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 15 vs. Washington Commanders, Week 17 at Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints<\/p>\n

Hey, look. It\u2019s another team that won a game this past weekend and hurt its draft status. Though, unlike the Jets, their win was an upset, as the Saints took down the five-win Carolina Panthers on the road. The Saints own a nine percent chance to pick first in next year\u2019s draft, as they look forward to getting more information on rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and boosting their roster\u2019s talent.<\/p>\n

The issue for the Saints is that they play my model\u2019s second-easiest schedule from here on out. That means there will be plenty of opportunities for wins, which is why their odds sit so low despite being one of the worst overall teams, per my model. Their upcoming games against the Jets and Titans will be paramount for their draft position.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 16 vs. Jets, Week 17 at Titans<\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n

In what was hyped as a promising season with new coach Pete Carroll and newly acquired quarterback Geno Smith, the Raiders find themselves with just two wins and an eight percent chance to pick first. Things could be worse, as they had a shot at upsetting the AFC West-leading Broncos in Denver last week, but ultimately, bad teams stay bad.<\/p>\n

The Raiders play the 10th-hardest remaining schedule, which isn\u2019t too shocking considering the strength of the AFC West. Add in games against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans, and the Raiders are in a good position to lose a lot of games.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 12 vs. Browns, Week 17 vs. Giants<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n

The Browns entered the chat for the top draft pick with their loss to the Jets on Sunday. Cleveland is still a long way off, mostly because of its stellar defense, but the Browns only have two wins and six games remaining against teams in the playoff hunt. Yes, I\u2019m counting the Cincinnati Bengals in there, with quarterback Joe Burrow slated to return in December. Either way, no matter how good their defense is, the Browns\u2019 offense is anemic and will give them a chance to lose any game the rest of the way.<\/p>\n

Despite playing those six teams in the playoff hunt, the Browns play the seventh-easiest remaining schedule. It turns out the model thinks two of those hopeful playoff teams \u2014 the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers \u2014 aren\u2019t all that good, and that\u2019s before discussing what the Bengals might look like in Week 18.<\/p>\n

Key remaining games: Week 12 at Raiders, Week 14 vs. Titans<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of Jets vs Patriots in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football.\u2019 The New York Jets…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":291041,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[1829,1822,1799,1812,1322,1814,977,5702,349,99,8853,3851],"class_list":["post-291040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-sports","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=291040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291040\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/291041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=291040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=291040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=291040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}