By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver<\/p>\n
Every week,\u200b we\u200b ask a selected group of our baseball\u200b writers\u200b \u2014 local and national \u2014 to rank the teams from first to worst<\/a>. Here are the collective results.<\/p>\n Ah, the start of the second half. Inexperienced baseball fans pay far too much attention to the first week of the season, but the seasoned nerds among us know that it\u2019s the first week of the second half that deserves outsized scrutiny and complaints. There\u2019s a gap of almost a full week between real games, which builds the anticipation up like a kinked garden hose. And then, whammo, all the baseball you can handle, and now every game means twice as much. It feels that way, at least.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s rank powers and see who is up and down to start the second half.<\/p>\n Record: 60-41 Second-half storyline: How many of these breakout seasons will last?<\/p>\n Twenty-two players have taken at least one plate appearance for the Detroit Tigers this year. Of those 22, seven are on pace for (or have already surpassed) their career high in bWAR.<\/p>\n Of those who have not, you have Riley Greene, who is on pace for 4.4 bWAR (still pretty good!) and Javier B\u00e1ez, for whom \u2014 after the last couple of years \u2014 \u201con pace for 3.2 bWAR\u201d feels kind of like a miracle.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s do the pitchers: 23 (not counting position players) have thrown at least one pitch for Detroit. Of those, you have nine on pace for new career highs. To be fair, that number includes some first-year rookies, but it also includes Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year.<\/p>\n Of the pitchers who aren\u2019t on pace for career highs? Casey Mize, who had a pretty good 2021 but has been mostly derailed by injuries since. Like B\u00e1ez, his \u201con pace for\u201d 2.4 WAR seems like a big win for Detroit. \u2014 Levi Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 59-41 Second-half storyline: Now if they can just stick the landing\u2026<\/p>\n The Cubs have had a lot of things go right in the first half: Pete Crow-Armstrong is a legitimate star, Matthew Boyd is an All-Star, Seiya Suzuki is roughing up opposing pitchers; literally Drew Pomeranz \u2014\u00a0who, again, last pitched in the big leagues in 2021 \u2014\u00a0is pitching like a bullpen bully.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve also had some bad luck. Justin Steele is out for the year. Shota Imanaga has also spent some time on the IL. Matt Shaw hasn\u2019t fully blossomed. Ian Happ has been good-but-not-great as a leadoff hitter.<\/p>\n And Crow-Armstrong was sidelined with a bruised knee<\/a> a few days after rejoining his team post-All-Star Game. He\u2019s being evaluated on a daily basis.<\/p>\n So it has to feel good to come out of the gate in the second half by winning two of three, laying claim to the best record in the National L\u2014 excuse me, what are you guys doing here<\/a>?!?! \u2014 Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 59-42 Second-half storyline: Just how much can they get out of Shohei Ohtani (the pitcher)?<\/p>\n Before the season started, the idea of Ohtani returning to the mound for the Dodgers seemed like a quaint midseason development. Certainly, they weren\u2019t going to need him, and they could use him however they wanted.<\/p>\n Then 80 percent of their rotation fell into a wheat thresher, and suddenly he\u2019s looking like the best option to start one of the first two games of a postseason series. He just needs to ramp up his strength and go through the command funkiness that every Tommy John recovery comes with.<\/p>\n No pressure. But also, all of the pressure. Let\u2019s get stretched out, and don\u2019t stop hitting dingers along the way. \u2014 Grant Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 60-40 Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?<\/p>\n There\u2019s a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires \u2014 the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal).<\/p>\n If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I\u2019m responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings.<\/p>\n In last Friday\u2019s Windup<\/a>, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or \u2014 at the time \u2014\u00a0the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1).<\/p>\n So maybe they\u2019ve figured out something the rest of us haven\u2019t. Or maybe they\u2019ll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday\u2019s win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it\u2019s blowing my mind. \u2014 Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 57-43 Second-half storyline: Is this the year?<\/p>\n The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball the past three years, and they\u2019re making it four in a row this season. Once again, the Phillies have arguably the best rotation in baseball; their offensive trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner is also among the best. According to FanGraphs, only the Dodgers have meaningfully better World Series odds. But the past three seasons have ended in disappointment, and the Phillies have been eliminated earlier and earlier in the postseason. This is a championship-or-bust era for the Phillies. They\u2019ve been very good, but they\u2019re still missing a ring. Is this the year it changes? And how aggressive will they be at the deadline in pursuit of a championship? \u2014 Chad Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 55-45 Second-half storyline: What does \u201cgoing to town\u201d mean?<\/p>\n A little before the All-Star break, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed the team\u2019s<\/a> approach to the trade deadline by saying, \u201cWe\u2019re going to town. We\u2019re going to do everything we possibly can to improve ourselves and try to match up.\u201d With the Yankees, \u201cgoing to town\u201d can mean a pretty big splash. Their farm system isn\u2019t great, but they\u2019re always a threat to take on salary to make big-ticket acquisitions possible. They\u2019ve also been, at times, really good this season (at other times, maddeningly inconsistent). Undoubtedly, the Yankees will do something, and probably something substantial. But will it be enough to make them World Series favorites down the stretch? Clearly, they need help.<\/a> The Yankees got back to the World Series last year but haven\u2019t won a championship since 2009. \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 59-41 Second-half storyline: Is this team this good?<\/p>\n Pretty basic question, really, but the Blue Jays are a puzzle. A 10-game winning streak in the weeks before the All-Star break boosted them into first place, but as of late May, they were a sub-.500 team with a roughly 70 percent chance of missing the playoffs. Even now, their run differential is somewhere between that of the Reds and Giants, which isn\u2019t exactly elite company. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have been far better at outscoring their opponents. To be in first place in the AL East is impressive, and usually a sign of a legitimate World Series contender. Should we really think of the Blue Jays that way? And can they do something at the trade deadline to convince us one way or the other? \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 58-42 Second-half storyline: Will there be an AL West race?<\/p>\n For a second, it looked like the Astros were going to run away with the sucker, leading by as many as seven games in the week before the All-Star break. A brutal homestand against the Guardians and Rangers, followed by a series loss against the Mariners on the road, has changed the calculus. The Mariners aren\u2019t nipping at their heels, but they\u2019re close enough to start tensing their jaw muscles.<\/p>\n They\u2019ll need deadline help, and it\u2019ll probably be on the offensive side, even though they have nearly a full rotation on the 60-day IL. They\u2019ll worry about the pitching, but someone else is going to bring the hitting.\u00a0 \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 57-44 Second-half storyline: Is the rotation good enough?<\/p>\n As of June 13, the Mets<\/a> had the second-best record in baseball \u2014 best in the National League \u2014 in large part because of their rotation, which was elite with a 2.78 ERA. No other big league rotation had an ERA below 3.00. Kodai Senga was the league leader in ERA at that point, with David Peterson and Clay Holmes also in the top 20. But the Mets\u2019 rotation stumbled in the second half of June<\/a> and into the All-Star break. Its ERA jumped to 5.31 with Senga and Tylor Megill hurt. Now, Senga is healthy again, Sean Manaea is finally active and Peterson is a first-time All-Star.<\/p>\n With Holmes and Frankie Montas, do the Mets have enough starting pitching? If not, does this trade market have the front-end arm that could make a significant difference? \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 54-48 Second-half storyline: Is their outfield a wasted logjam or valuable depth?<\/p>\n This storyline could extend into the offseason, but in the short term, it\u2019s a fascinating factor in the team\u2019s approach to the trade deadline and the final analysis of all that comes after. The Red Sox are an interesting but imperfect team (as evidenced by their stunning Rafael Devers trade in June). They need pitching (again), their first baseman is hurt (again), and their middle infield is a weird combination of talent without immediate results. But their outfield is overflowing, especially since the arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony to play alongside Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela.<\/p>\n The Red Sox could trade from that depth to address a more glaring need. If they do, and someone gets hurt, they\u2019ll look suddenly thin. If they don\u2019t and miss the playoffs, they will have perhaps missed an opportunity to improve. The ball\u2019s in your court, Craig Breslow. \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 53-47 Second-half storyline: Forget the all-time record for catchers \u2014 can Big Dumper get to 60 homers?<\/p>\n Salvador P\u00e9rez holds the record for 48 catcher home runs, a record he set in 2021. Cal Raleigh is just 10 homers behind that with more than 60 games to go. Assuming regular health, that\u2019s a record that\u2019s as good as broken.<\/p>\n Can he get to 60, though? That\u2019s much trickier. Every slugger hits a dry patch; Raleigh\u2019s just hasn\u2019t come yet. Maybe it\u2019ll never come, and he\u2019s certainly on pace. Another storyline to watch is with the Mariners\u2019 postseason chase, but in a way, that\u2019s a part of the same storyline. \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 52-49 Second-half storyline: Is Shane McClanahan the sport\u2019s biggest trade deadline addition?<\/p>\n No one is suggesting the Rays are going to trade McClanahan, but they should get him back off the IL right around the trade deadline. That\u2019s a potential ace joining a team on the playoff bubble. And if McClanahan is at his best, he could push the Rays into a wild card spot with a rotation that should worry everyone \u2014 McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz \u2014 along with a sneaky good offense that\u2019s top five in the AL in runs per game. Adding a homegrown ace to fuel a second-half playoff run would be one of the most Rays things imaginable. And it could happen (or they could sell at the deadline and try again next year). \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 55-45 Second-half storyline: Where are the runs going to come from?<\/p>\n The Padres are a sneaky-awful offensive team. They\u2019re ranked 24th in adjusted OPS (OPS+) and have an unadjusted OPS under .700. They\u2019ve hit just 86 home runs, which is behind the Marlins, Giants and, gasp, Rockies. This is pretty remarkable, considering that Manny Machado and Fernando Tat\u00eds Jr. have each hit 16 homers or more.<\/p>\n They\u2019ll hope to get those dingers from Xander Bogaerts, in year X of a billion-year contract, and Jackson Merrill, who is still growing into his power. The real cavalry might come at the deadline, though. You know A.J. Preller won\u2019t be idle. \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 52-49 Second-half storyline: Is Rafael Devers OK?<\/p>\n One thing we know about Devers: He has an emotional component to his game. His displeasure with his old organization bled into the start of the regular season, and he was striking out at a record-setting pace. Then he turned his season around with a lot of thumping. Sometimes it takes a bit for his head to clear. \u2013 Brisbee<\/p>\n This is hardly sabermetrics, but it sure seems like he\u2019s in a similar funk with the Giants, who acquired him to single-handedly fix the offense. They were polite about it, but quite insistent. The pressure hasn\u2019t helped him, and he\u2019s been a dud in his limited time in San Francisco. Back and leg problems might be the culprit more than brain problems, but either way, the Giants still need him. That hasn\u2019t changed. \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 51-50 Second-half storyline: Regression works both ways, doesn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n The pitching has been extremely good. Maybe a little too good. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if they came back down to earth just a little bit in the second half.<\/p>\n The hitting has been extremely bad. Maybe a little too bad. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if they came back to life just a little bit in the second half.<\/p>\n The problem is that if both of these things happen, it\u2019s not going to change their outcome much after a disappointing first half. For this season to be a success in Texas, they will need one order of regression to the mean (offense), hold the regression to the mean (pitching).<\/p>\n And it\u2019s probably going to need to happen fast. The deadline is nigh. \u2014\u00a0Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 50-51 Second-half storyline: Will they be sellers at the deadline?<\/p>\n As always, the Golden Rule of Selling is in play: If you have a lot of good players to trade in a selling effort, it\u2019s possible that you have a sneakily good team and don\u2019t need to rebuild at all. Patience is more valuable in those situations than prospects.<\/p>\n The Diamondbacks are on the fringes of the wild-card race, and they have a lot of pending free agents, so they could go either way. Don\u2019t think of it as a rebuild, but an early start to free agency, just with more prospects. This is the likeliest course, but we\u2019re still at a stage of the season where a hot week could change everything.\u00a0 \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 52-49 Second-half storyline: Will they learn from the past two deadlines?<\/p>\n If you\u2019re not a Reds fan, you might not have noticed that the Reds were pretty good when the deadline came in 2023. They made some minor moves, but nothing splashy, and finished two games out of a wild-card position. Last year, they had a losing record at the deadline, didn\u2019t do much, and faded down the stretch, finishing 12 games out.<\/p>\n This year is a weird combination of both. Yes, their record is 52-49\u00a0but they\u2019re only one spot (and 3.5 games) out of the final wild-card position. Will GM Nick Krall seize an opportunity to make a second-half run, or will the team slow-play it again, hoping to build for progress in 2026?\u00a0 \u2014 Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 52-49 Second-half storyline: What kind of team are they?<\/p>\n Hot, cold, hot, cold, hot, cold. Pick an identity, you freaks. The Cardinals got obliterated in their first series out of the break, getting blown out by a Diamondbacks team looking to reestablish itself as a contender. The Cardinals would like to do that, too, building on some of those wins they banked in May.<\/p>\n They just might be a mediocre team, though. They have five starters who have made all but two of their starts this season (good) and they all have an ERA over 4.00 (bad). They could go for it, but in the service of what goal? This is the franchise and fan base that knows better than anyone else that every postseason has a Jered Weaver, and you just need to get there to find out who it is. Easier said than done. \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 49-50 Second-half storyline: Will we see Chase DeLauter this year?<\/p>\n Could the Guardians get hot and leapfrog five teams in the second half to make it into the playoffs? Sure, it\u2019s mathematically possible. But it\u2019s not probable enough to make it my second-half storyline.<\/p>\n Instead, I\u2019m curious if we\u2019ll get to see DeLauter, who was ripping it up in Triple A before a hand injury that may have delayed a big-league call-up. He\u2019s seeing a hand specialist<\/a>, so when he\u2019s healthy, we\u2019ll get to see if he extends his on-base streak in Columbus (34 games) or if he\u2019ll get a chance to start a new one in Cleveland.<\/p>\n Beyond that, the Guardians appear to be slowly sinking into a light sell-off at the deadline. \u2014 Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 48-52 Second-half storyline: At what point will we have seen enough?<\/p>\n It was technically less than a week ago when Dan Hayes\u2019 second-half storylines article<\/a> ran with a headline asking if the Twins were buyers or sellers.<\/p>\n Well, they\u2019re 5-5 in their last 10 games, which doesn\u2019t really scream one or the other, but two of those losses were to the Rockies, sooooo it seems like maybe we have our answer<\/a>? Probably<\/a>?<\/p>\n These are the Twins, though \u2014 just as likely to catch a good vibes wave and ride it to a 10-game winning streak as they are to (metaphorically) put their phones on silent and spend a week in bed while the bills pile up.<\/p>\n As fun as it would be to see them hit one of those hot streaks in the playoffs, I just don\u2019t think this squad has the juice. So when does the front office pull the plug? \u2014\u00a0Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 49-52 Second-half storyline: Who sticks around for next year?<\/p>\n Last year, the Royals made the playoffs. They had a sneaky-busy offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Jonathan India from the Reds \u2014 finally, a leadoff hitter to get on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.<\/p>\n India entered last night\u2019s action with an on-base percentage of .328, or exactly the same as Eugenio Su\u00e1rez (but about 250 points lower on slugging).<\/p>\n On the upside, Maikel Garc\u00eda seems to have put it together, making his first All-Star team and finally turning all that hard contact into productive numbers.<\/p>\n Barring some miracle, the Royals won\u2019t be repeating last year\u2019s October performance. These games are for sussing out the future. Fortunately for the Royals, they can know this in time to make some trades and bolster the farm system, rather than waiting until mid-August to find out. \u2014\u00a0Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 44-55 Second-half storyline: Are two catchers too many?<\/p>\n The story of this Braves season seems already written. They\u2019re disappointments. Maybe the biggest disappointments in baseball. If they can change that in the second half, it\u2019ll be one of the most exciting storylines in the game. But let\u2019s not count on that one. Instead, the Braves are probably doing to do some version of selling at the trade deadline Will they trade veteran catcher Sean Murphy, or keep him and find at-bats for both Murphy and rookie Drake Baldwin (in which case, they could trade DH Marcell Ozuna)? This still looks like a talented roster. But what\u2019s it going to look like come Aug, 1, and how is that going to impact our expectations heading into 2026? \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 49-51 Second-half storyline: What will they get at the deadline?<\/p>\n There was a hot minute in April when it looked like Mike Trout had a shot at a second postseason series. Alas. They\u2019re not without players to trade, though. They\u2019ll keep onto the young players, of course, but they have relievers to interest the masses, from closer Kenley Jansen to lefty Reid Detmers. They\u2019ve resisted trading their menagerie of Useful Tylers thus far, but this is probably the deadline that changes.<\/p>\n The Angels, for the first time in a while, look like they\u2019re actually emerging from a morass. Patience. It\u2019ll be a couple more seasons, but this deadline could kickstart those efforts. \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 44-55 Second-half storyline: Something to believe in?<\/p>\n This was supposed to be the Orioles\u2019 heyday, when their young talent would make them consistent contenders. They won 101 games in 2023, got back to the playoffs last year and their FanGraphs playoff odds were basically identical to the Tigers on Opening Day (perhaps lower than expected due to concerns about their pitching). Instead, the Orioles have been a complete flop, setting the stage for a potentially massive fire sale at the trade deadline (Ryan O\u2019Hearn, Zach Eflin, Cedric Mullins, et al.). Can the Orioles turn a bunch of rentals into meaningful talent? And perhaps more importantly, can their young core perform well enough in the second half to suggest all the hype and expectation is warranted (assuming they don\u2019t skimp on pitching in the future). \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 46-53 Second-half storyline: All about Sandy<\/p>\n This story is all about the main character. With all due respect to Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez, there\u2019s no bigger fish in the Marlins clubhouse than Sandy Alcantara. And after another underwhelming start on Friday, he currently has a 7.14 ERA. Three years ago, he won a Cy Young award, and in two or three years, he\u2019s going to be a free agent. Miami has to decide whether to trade him, and some contending team has to decide whether to believe in him. Whether he stays or goes, Alcantara will be the biggest Marlins story of the second half. \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 42-60 Second-half storyline: So, how\u2019s the ballpark during the Sacramento summer?<\/p>\n The A\u2019s have scheduled as many night games as possible in the Sacramento heat, but they\u2019re limited on Sundays and travel days because of the CBA and ESPN games, and we\u2019re about to get into the real Northern California summer. July is for weenies; real heads know that August and especially September is when the heat gets here.<\/p>\n That\u2019s more of a Bay Area dynamic \u2014 it\u2019s already been plenty hot in Sacramento \u2014 but it still applies. It\u2019s a long baseball season for the new turf, too. We\u2019ll see if there\u2019s any physical fatigue, for players or otherwise, as the months drag on.\u00a0 \u2014 Brisbee<\/p>\n Record: 40-61 Second-half storyline: Why do we watch baseball, anyway?<\/p>\n I mean look, if you\u2019re reading a section about the Pirates, it probably means you care about the Pirates, which means you could tell me a half-dozen reasons you\u2019ll keep watching their games this year.<\/p>\n Paul Skenes is stupid-good at pitching and gets robbed of a loss about every fifth day, which is sad or funny, depending on if you root for Skenes. Oneil Cruz hits the ball 120 miles an hour once in a while (which is neither sad nor funny, unless you are a nervous laugher). Andrew McCutchen is baseball\u2019s version of a wizened old monk atop a mountain, and you never know how much longer he\u2019ll stick around, so you should take that in while you can.<\/p>\n All of these are worthwhile reasons to watch baseball, and I\u2019m not going to tell you otherwise. Life is fleeting, and so very precious, and if watching the Pirates brings you any shred of joy, you should keep doing it. \u2014 Weaver<\/p>\n Record: 40-60 Second-half storyline: First chapter of a fresh start<\/p>\n The Nationals already made their biggest decision of the year, firing manager Dave Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo. They haven\u2019t been any better since, but at least they did \u2026 something. Last week, they picked first in the draft. Later this month, they\u2019ll sell at the deadline (though their valuable chips are few and far between unless they want to trade a trio of potential cornerstones). Whatever happens in the second half, it\u2019s all about starting over. The Nationals aren\u2019t starting from scratch \u2014 James Wood is a pretty good foundation \u2014 but they\u2019re clearly turning a page. Their second-half storyline is just an introduction to whatever comes next. \u2014 Jennings<\/p>\n Record: 36-65 Second-half storyline: When does Bears training camp begin?<\/p>\n
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