{"id":29948,"date":"2025-07-23T00:26:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T00:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/29948\/"},"modified":"2025-07-23T00:26:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T00:26:10","slug":"can-dylan-cease-jackson-chourio-improve-in-the-second-half-whats-holding-them-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/29948\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Dylan Cease, Jackson Chourio improve in the second half? What\u2019s holding them back?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With a little over two months left in the season, I will look at a couple of players who have underperformed expectations so far. Can Dylan Cease and Jackson Chourio have a stronger second half of the season? What would it take for them to show improvement?<\/p>\n

RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego<\/p>\n

Dylan Cease had an underwhelming first half with a 4.64 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through the All-Star Break.<\/p>\n

The good news is that many underlying metrics point in the right direction. Cease\u2019s velocity is still high, and his 3.49 FIP indicates that factors outside of Cease\u2019s control contributed to his inflated ERA. That said, we can\u2019t just assume that he has been unlucky.<\/p>\n

Looking at his tunneling, Cease has more separation between his four-seamer and slider this season than last. The last time Cease had this much separation was in 2023, another season when his ERA was higher (4.58).<\/p>\n

In the images below, look at the red (four-seamer) and yellow (slider) lines around the pink dots. The pink dots represent the hitters\u2019 decision point. At this location, Cease performs best when the lines are as close together as possible (like in 2024 and 2022).<\/p>\n

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SeasonFourseam\/Slider Tight TunnelERA<\/p>\n

2022<\/p>\n

Yes<\/p>\n

2.20<\/p>\n

2023<\/p>\n

No (more separation)<\/p>\n

4.58<\/p>\n

2024<\/p>\n

Yes<\/p>\n

3.47<\/p>\n

2025<\/p>\n

No (more separation)<\/p>\n

4.64<\/p>\n

Graphics and data from Baseball Savant<\/p>\n

Tunneling is important because it prevents the hitter from recognizing a pitch early in its trajectory. Cease\u2019s most successful seasons in the past few years have occurred when he could tunnel his four-seamer and slider tightly.<\/p>\n

Cease\u2019s control and splits both remain in line with his career. The biggest difference in his results stems from contact quality against his pitching. Cease\u2019s 42% hard-hit rate against is the worst of his career, and it comes with a 9.9% barrel rate, which ties his career worst.<\/p>\n

Against righties, Cease primarily throws a slider and a four-seamer. He reduced his sweeper usage in favor of a sinker this season, but the usage of either is so rare that the impact is minimal. He uses his slider down and away and his four-seamer up and away. He does not throw to the inner half.<\/p>\n

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Graphic from Baseball Savant<\/p>\n

Righties are doing damage and capitalizing on Cease\u2019s first pitch.<\/p>\n

xSLG Vs. RHHFirst PitchPitcher AheadPitcher BehindTwo StrikesFull Count<\/p>\n

Slider<\/p>\n

.719<\/p>\n

.170<\/p>\n

.390<\/p>\n

.127<\/p>\n

.137<\/p>\n

Fourseam<\/p>\n

.726<\/p>\n

.305<\/p>\n

.379<\/p>\n

.177<\/p>\n

.228<\/p>\n

Cease\u2019s first pitch is a slider 48% of the time, and his four-seamer is thrown on the first pitch 40% of the time, so he\u2019s mixing his stuff well. However, a few poor locations have led to damage.<\/p>\n

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Knowing that the tunneling is a factor, hitters may be able to differentiate spin better (when left up in the zone) from fastballs in the zone.<\/p>\n

Against lefties, Cease is still mainly throwing a four-seamer and slider, but depending on the count, he\u2019ll also occasionally mix in his curveball. He uses his slider backdoor, his four-seamer up and his curveball lower-half and below the zone.<\/p>\n

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Like righties, lefties are doing most of their damage on Cease\u2019s first pitch, but they have also done well when behind in the count.<\/p>\n

xSLG Vs. LHHFirst PitchPitcher AheadPitcher BehindTwo strikesFull Count<\/p>\n

Slider<\/p>\n

.670<\/p>\n

.444<\/p>\n

.500<\/p>\n

.283<\/p>\n

.184<\/p>\n

Fourseam<\/p>\n

.593<\/p>\n

.597<\/p>\n

.192<\/p>\n

.350<\/p>\n

.274<\/p>\n

Curveball<\/p>\n

Small Sample<\/p>\n

.666<\/p>\n

Small Sample<\/p>\n

.296<\/p>\n

Small Sample<\/p>\n

The sample size for curveballs is very small. Data and graphics from Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n

Ten of the 19 hits Cease has given up against his four-seamer came when he was ahead in the count. Like against righties, the tunneling issue may allow hitters better reads out of hand.<\/p>\n

Getting the four-seamer and slider tunneled as tightly as possible is key to Cease\u2019s improvement.<\/p>\n

OF Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee<\/p>\n

In his second MLB season, Chourio has a .757 OPS, 20% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. While his OPS and strikeout rate are not bad, Chourio entered the season with a lot of hype, given his top-prospect status. He has so far performed worse than in his debut season (.791 OPS).<\/p>\n

Chourio had an aggressive approach last season and has been more aggressive this season. He often ambushes the first pitch but does well against it with a .338 batting average. While his approach may seem to work, difficulties arise when an at-bat extends beyond the first pitch because he frequently gets behind in the count.<\/p>\n

1-0 Count Frequency0-1 Count Frequency<\/p>\n

35%<\/p>\n

65%<\/p>\n

Falling behind in the count makes it more difficult for Chourio to succeed. Comparing his stats shows a significant difference in his results when he has disadvantageous counts.<\/p>\n

CountxSLG vs. Pitch Type<\/p>\n

Fastballs<\/p>\n

Breaking<\/p>\n

Offspeed<\/p>\n

Batter Ahead<\/p>\n

.618<\/p>\n

.326<\/p>\n

.504<\/p>\n

Batter Behind<\/p>\n

.337<\/p>\n

.280<\/p>\n

.349<\/p>\n

Difference<\/p>\n

-.281<\/p>\n

-.046<\/p>\n

-.155<\/p>\n

Falling behind so frequently also hurts his walk rate, which is fourth-worst in baseball among qualified hitters.<\/p>\n

When Chourio falls behind, he makes poor swing decisions more frequently. The graphic below shows all of the pitches Chourio has either taken or swung at in 0-1 counts:<\/p>\n

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He consistently chases pitches outside and above the zone that he is unlikely to hit well. When he gets ahead, his results improve, and he can make quality swing decisions.<\/p>\n

The graphic below shows all of the pitches Chourio has either swung at or taken in 1-0 counts:<\/p>\n

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While Chourio may be too aggressive on pitches inside, he tends to do significant damage when hitting pitches in the inner half.<\/p>\n

Jackson Chourio: Slugging<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/0)<\/p>\n

.182 (2\/11)<\/p>\n

.364 (4\/11)<\/p>\n

.143 (1\/7)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/0)<\/p>\n

.364 (4\/11)<\/p>\n

.417 (10\/24)<\/p>\n

.485 (16\/33)<\/p>\n

.444 (4\/9)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/1)<\/p>\n

.444 (4\/9)<\/p>\n

.842 (32\/38)<\/p>\n

.546 (24\/44)<\/p>\n

.306 (11\/36)<\/p>\n

.600 (3\/5)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/2)<\/p>\n

.810 (17\/21)<\/p>\n

.569 (29\/51)<\/p>\n

.650 (26\/40)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/11)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/1)<\/p>\n

.438 (7\/16)<\/p>\n

.191 (4\/21)<\/p>\n

.217 (5\/23)<\/p>\n

.000 (0\/12)<\/p>\n

From 01\/01\/2025 to 01\/01\/2026 | All competition levels | From catcher\u2019s POV | Against RHP and LHP | Data from Brooksbaseball.net<\/p>\n

A contributing factor is when he gets ahead, he sees significantly more fastballs (68% of the time).<\/p>\n

Chourio is doing well with ambushing the first pitch, so I would not recommend he become more passive just to have deeper at-bats. However, given how well he does in favorable counts, it also limits his offensive ceiling. Despite not showing above-average plate discipline in his minor-league career, he can make good swing decisions when he has count leverage. For this reason, if he can find a way to continue making smart swing decisions when he falls behind, he will be better equipped to extend his success to at-bats with unfavorable counts.<\/p>\n

Miscellaneous notes
\nWith so many injuries to the Astros\u2019 rotation, LHP Brandon Walter stepped up and has a 3.97 FIP, 25% strikeout rate and elite 2% walk rate through eight starts. Three of his pitches have above-average movement:<\/p>\n

Sweeper (79 mph): on the slower side, but gets plus depth and above-average sweep
\nSinker (92 mph): above-average sink and run
\nChangeup (81 mph): above-average fade and depth.<\/p>\n

He also features a four-seamer (92 mph) and a cutter (88 mph) with average movement. Walter does a good job of getting ahead in the count and getting hitters to chase. His control and command have been excellent so far, as has his ability to work along the edges of the zone.
\nRHP Cam Schlittler made his MLB debut on July 9, and his second start was pushed back due to upper arm soreness. Here are some thoughts from his debut:<\/p>\n

Thoughts on NYY Cam Schlittler\u2019s MLB debut (p.s. go huskies!) pic.twitter.com\/LhNOI7UbVW<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Andrea (@scoutgirlreport) July 10, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Ozzie Albies had a successful weekend against the Yankees despite having a career low .627 OPS this season. He is not barreling the ball as frequently, and he\u2019s popping up more compared to his career. While his contact quality has never been outstanding, it is still a bit worse this season. A switch-hitter, Albies has always been stronger as a righty. But this season, his results hitting from both sides are significantly lower. Both of his home runs over the weekend were as a left-handed hitter. While it would be ideal to see him pick it up as a righty and a lefty, he will face right-handed pitchers more frequently. Therefore, it is a step in the right direction that things might be starting to click again as a lefty batter.
\nRHP Spencer Turnbull agreed to a deal with the Cubs, who have been dealing with injuries. With the Blue Jays this season, Turnbull had a 5.78 FIP through 6.1 innings pitched. He will join the Cubs\u2019 Triple-A team. He had a strong season last year in Philadelphia, posting a 3.85 FIP and a career-high 26% strikeout rate through 54 innings pitched (a mix of starting and relief appearances). A depth starter, Turnbull does not have big swing-and-miss stuff, but relies on weak contact for success. His off-speed and breaking options have had the best results the past few seasons. It will be important for him to show strong command, especially with his fastballs.<\/p>\n

(Photo of Jackson Chourio: Patrick McDermott \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n