{"id":301947,"date":"2025-11-19T21:57:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T21:57:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/301947\/"},"modified":"2025-11-19T21:57:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T21:57:09","slug":"toronto-maple-leafs-after-20-games-why-their-lack-of-speed-is-becoming-a-big-issue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/301947\/","title":{"rendered":"Toronto Maple Leafs after 20 games: Why their lack of speed is becoming a big issue"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the early questions that\u2019s plagued this year\u2019s Toronto Maple Leafs is, \u201cWhat exactly is this team\u2019s identity?\u201d The answer to that should be obvious: They\u2019re slow.<\/p>\n

On defence, the Leafs are caught flat-footed often and are giving up too many odd-man rushes. On offence, the Leafs don\u2019t forecheck with nearly the same ferocity and get slowed down in the neutral zone with relative ease. They\u2019re not moving their feet, they\u2019re getting beaten cleanly to pucks and look a step behind all over the ice.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Toronto\u2019s complete lack of speed has been one of the most glaring issues to start the year, a direct contrast to not only what the team once was, but where the rest of the league seems to be going. As the NHL becomes faster each year, the Leafs are trending in the opposite direction, getting left behind.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

During the 2022-23 season, the Leafs were sixth in the NHL in speed bursts as measured by NHL Edge. This year, they\u2019re 26th. The first drop in 2023-24 seemed to be a tactical one to elicit playoff-style hockey (a similar drop for the 2024-25 Devils echoes that sentiment). The drop this season feels far more grim.<\/p>\n

While better teams are usually faster, it\u2019s not a hard-and-fast rule. There are great teams that play fast, like Colorado, and there are great teams that play slow, like Dallas. There are bad teams that play fast, like Buffalo, and there are bad teams that play slow, like Calgary.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Smart hockey can mean being more positionally sound, where speed isn\u2019t always necessary; that\u2019s not the Leafs this year. It feels more like a symptom of a systemic issue for a team that is struggling to dictate a pace it\u2019s probably not built for. Playing a slower, methodical game only works if you can grind the other team down to that level, not let them skate circles around you. The Panthers \u2014 the team the Leafs are desperately trying to emulate despite not having the same type of players \u2014 rank 10th this year in speed bursts, eighth last year and 15th the year before that. The Leafs have been slower in each of those seasons.<\/p>\n

Some may point to the ageing personnel as the main issue, and while the team is light on burners and has its fair share of slowpokes, that\u2019s not the whole story. The average max speed of Toronto\u2019s roster is actually right around league average and a mostly similar roster last season was a lot closer to average in terms of meaningful speed bursts. There\u2019s a difference between being fast and playing fast and a lot of Toronto\u2019s speed issues feel like a choice.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The average team has four players with two 20-plus mph bursts per game this season. The Leafs have one: Bobby McMann at 2.7, 38th highest in the league. William Nylander\u2019s top speed of 23.5 mph this season puts him in the top 10 in the league alongside players such as Brayden Point, Kirill Marchenko and Jack Eichel, who get up to five speed bursts per game. Nylander sits at 1.4, good for 195th. Matthew Knies, who touched 23 mph last year, is at 1.0 per game. Auston Matthews seems mostly uninterested in turning on the jets at 0.7 bursts per game this season, down from an already modest 1.9 in 2022-23. Even Morgan Rielly on the backend has a max speed higher than Brandon Montour (2.1 bursts), Quinn Hughes (2.5) or Olen Zellweger (3.2) this season \u2014 but only flashes it once per game.<\/p>\n

There are similarly fast players around the league who flash it more often than Toronto\u2019s quickest players. And some players play a lot faster in new environments, too. The Ducks under Joel Quenneville (five players bursting 2.5 times per game, up from zero last year) and JJ Peterka in Utah (3.3 bursts per game, up from 2.0 in Buffalo) are the best examples of that. Playing fast isn\u2019t just a matter of being fast; it can be by design.<\/p>\n

The Leafs\u2019 current design obviously isn\u2019t working and a lack of speed seems to be at the forefront.<\/p>\n

Part of the problem is that the Leafs are standing still a lot and rarely seem to be in the right position for anything. Whether that means getting burned one way or not being set up to quick strike the other way, the current system doesn\u2019t seem built to generate speed bursts. Additionally, the Leafs spend so much time in their own end that there\u2019s often no gas left in the tank to transition up ice or chase pucks after dumping them in. Some might call it a lack of effort and there may be some truth to that, but it feels more like wasted effort defending.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot of chatter lately about Derek Lalonde and while it\u2019s hard to lay too much blame at an assistant coach\u2019s feet, it\u2019s fair to wonder why this kind of slow ineffectiveness is following him. The Red Wings were the second-slowest team in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, Lalonde\u2019s last two full seasons as their head coach. They\u2019re up to ninth this season, with the biggest jumps coming from veterans Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher. It should be pointed out, too, that there was a marked difference in speed between Craig Berube\u2019s 2022-23 and 2023-24 Blues.<\/p>\n

Some of Toronto\u2019s speed concerns come down to age; there\u2019s no denying that. It\u2019s unfair to expect the 2025-26 Leafs to be as fast as the 2018-19 Leafs. The Leafs obviously don\u2019t have a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon at their disposal either. But looking around the league, it\u2019s also fair to wonder how much of this comes down to play style. The Leafs shouldn\u2019t look this slow.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Stock Watch<\/p>\n

The biggest changes in projected value over the last 10 games.<\/p>\n

Risers<\/p>\n

Nick Robertson
Net Rating: up 2.9<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s a bright spot this season, it\u2019s that Nick Robertson has finally arrived. Robertson was promoted to the top six at the end of October and has not disappointed, scoring five goals and 11 points in 12 games. He\u2019s held his own in terms of expected goals (xG) and has been a major offensive catalyst. In the top six, Robertson\u2019s speed has been a breath of fresh air.<\/p>\n

The model doesn\u2019t yet consider Robertson a true top-six player, but he\u2019s getting there. The longer he plays at this level (plus-nine Net Rating pace over the last 10), the quicker he can establish that as his true talent. That would go a long way toward solving one of the team\u2019s most pressing needs.<\/p>\n

While there are still concerns regarding Robertson\u2019s defensive game, he\u2019s done enough offensively to mitigate that during this audition for the top six. Now he just has to keep it up.<\/p>\n

John Tavares
Net Rating: up 2.4<\/p>\n

My model has always rated John Tavares highly, even when others around the league have dissented. Every year when we work on Player Tiers<\/a>, there\u2019s a fair bit of pressure to drop Tavares down and this year he ended up in Tier 4C next to forwards like Carter Verhaeghe and J.T. Miller. No disrespect to those players, but Tavares was clearly at a higher level then, and has only created more separation since.<\/p>\n

Tavares\u2019 projected Net Rating is up to plus-15.4 after an extremely strong start, a mark that compares favorably to some other top centres around the league like Dylan Larkin and Wyatt Johnston. While I don\u2019t think he\u2019s that good, it\u2019s hard to ignore the consistently strong numbers Tavares is still putting up. I\u2019m not sure why Tavares\u2019 work is often downplayed to the point that some fans believed he was third-line calibre as recently as this summer, but we should call him what he is: elite. How else would you describe a 40-goal and 85-point centre who consistently gets 55 percent of the goals at five-on-five?<\/p>\n

Fallers<\/p>\n

Matthew Knies
Net Rating: down 2.1<\/p>\n

I\u2019m a big Knies fan, but his last nine games have revealed some warts in his defensive game. The Leafs gave up 4.01 xGA\/60 in his minutes, culminating in 4.74 GA\/60, which was, unbelievably, not even close to a team worst.<\/p>\n

The problem is at its worst when playing opposite Nylander, showcasing the biggest issue with Mitch Marner\u2019s departure. The Leafs have replaced his offence just fine, but part of what made Marner special was his two-way ability next to Matthews in matchup minutes. Knies leaves a lot to be desired on that front and the problem is exacerbated with Nylander joining the top line. If the Leafs are insistent on using Matthews like a Patrice Bergeron, the absence of a Brad Marchand is a major issue.<\/p>\n

To Knies\u2019 credit, he did score nine points in 10 games, but his 42 percent xG, driven largely by poor defence, was close to a team worst. With Knies sitting out on Tuesday thanks to a lingering injury, the hope should be that this issue was mostly health-related.<\/p>\n

Calle Jarnkrok
Net Rating: down 2.3<\/p>\n

It was a nice story when Calle Jarnkrok started the season with a goal in each of the first three games, but reality is starting to set in: He might be washed. For the season, the Leafs are being outscored 10-4 in his minutes and he has a team-worst 35 percent xG. Those are disastrous results that undermine a lot of the good work the top six have been doing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jarnkrok\u2019s projected Net Rating is down to minus-8.0, well below the average fourth liner. More pressing is his minus-2.4 Defensive Rating. If you can\u2019t even count on a fourth liner to keep the puck out of the net, what\u2019s the point?<\/p>\n

The Leafs are in a bind due to injuries, but their optimal forward lines when healthy probably don\u2019t include Jarnkrok.<\/p>\n

Anthony Stolarz
Net Rating: down 3.6<\/p>\n

Coming into the season, it was clear that the Leafs would once again be relying heavily on strong goaltending to contend. Toronto has got anything but from Anthony Stolarz so far and it\u2019s a big part of why the Leafs are where they are. The defence in front of Stolarz has done him no favours, but there have been far too many times when the Leafs needed a save and Stolarz has failed to produce.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even before last season\u2019s magnificence, Stolarz had a pretty strong track record in saving more goals than expected. But that track record was built on spot duty, not starter duty. There\u2019s a big difference between the two and Stolarz did not impress in his first real shot with the latter. The model was probably too high on Stolarz to start and is experiencing a big market correction as a result.<\/p>\n

Stars and Scrubs<\/p>\n

The top and bottom three Leafs over the last 10 games, relative to expectations.<\/p>\n

Stars<\/p>\n

Nick Robertson
Net Rating: +1.1<\/p>\n

A big part of Robertson\u2019s recent rise is that he\u2019s looked like a true top-six forward over the last 10, scoring nine points while driving play well. He\u2019s made an incredible impression with the opportunity he\u2019s been given.<\/p>\n

Morgan Reilly
Net Rating: +1.2<\/p>\n

On a slow and unskilled blue line, Reilly is a necessary evil. He gives a lot back defensively, but he\u2019s also Toronto\u2019s most reliable source of offence from the back end. With 10 points in 10 games, Reilly has moved into the top 10 in defenceman points \u2014 and third at even strength behind only Cale Makar and Josh Morrissey.<\/p>\n

John Tavares
Net Rating: +1.7<\/p>\n

Over the last 10 games, Tavares was Toronto\u2019s best player and continues to defy his age with each passing game. That the Leafs are wasting the contract gift he gave the franchise this summer might be one of the most frustrating parts of the team\u2019s weak start.<\/p>\n

Scrubs<\/p>\n

Simon Benoit
Net Rating: -2.9<\/p>\n

I gave Simon Benoit some deserved praise for his start, but unfortunately, that was short-lived. A defenceman who gets caved in and outscored badly is closer to what Benoit actually is. His minus-3.0 Net Rating for the year ranks close to the league\u2019s bottom 10 among defencemen. Benoit\u2019s projected value is now five goals below an average, No. 6 defender.<\/p>\n

Philippe Myers
Net Rating: -2.3<\/p>\n

No need to belabour the point: Philippe Myers is simply not an NHL-calibre defenceman. That his Net Rating over the last 10 games compares so closely to two blue line staples, though, is the real story.<\/p>\n

Brandon Carlo
Net Rating: -2.1<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what I wrote about Brandon Carlo before last year\u2019s deadline<\/a> when he looked like a defensive No. 5.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a time when Carlo was a no doubt top-four shutdown defender, but the last two seasons haven\u2019t been kind. Carlo still projects to be a positive defensive influence due to his prior work there in difficult minutes. But his limited puck skill means he either needs to play with a puck-mover, or further down the lineup. He\u2019s been exposed a bit without Hampus Lindholm next to him and has a 44 percent xG rate this season. Carlo does have the strongest penalty-kill impact of any defender available.\u201d<\/p>\n

That the Leafs overpaid for him is a conversation for another day. The current issue is that even within the context of those low expectations, Carlo has seriously disappointed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Quick Questions<\/p>\n

A look at where the Leafs are and where they\u2019re going.<\/p>\n

Are the Leafs better than they were 10 games ago?
Change in Offensive Rating: +4.2
Change in Defensive Rating: -17.4
Change in Net Rating: -13.2<\/p>\n

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Leafs, where the safest bet for what they are is a shade over mid. Defensively, the team is a constant five-alarm fire, ranking 29th in five-on-five xGA\/60 over the last 10 games and last in GA\/60. Their 13.9 xGA\/60 on the penalty kill ranks second last over the time frame. Toronto\u2019s defence came into the season as a strength, but now looks like a weakness.<\/p>\n

Considering the opponents the Leafs have faced, the current defensive disaster is unacceptable. The Leafs now grade out as a middling team and even that might be generous.<\/p>\n

Where do the Leafs stand in the Atlantic?
Chances of making the playoffs: 37.6 percent
Chances of winning the division: 4.7 percent
Most likely landing spot: 7th<\/p>\n

The good news is no one is running away with the Atlantic right now. Slow starts from Tampa Bay and Florida help, as does Montreal falling back to earth and a relative lack of belief in Detroit. If there\u2019s just one Atlantic team with a positive goal differential through 20 games, Tampa Bay, there\u2019s still hope that it\u2019s not too late for Toronto.<\/p>\n

The problem is the dwindling hope that this team will be able to turn things around as currently constructed. The process is not sound enough to expect that, which leaves Toronto more likely than not to finish in the bottom four of the Atlantic. For the first time since 2016-17, the Leafs find themselves unlikely to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Are the Leafs a contender?
Chances of 105 points or more: 4.6 percent
Chances of advancing to the conference finals: 7.6 percent
Leaguewide ranking: 13th in Net Rating, 19th in projected points<\/p>\n

Nope!<\/p>\n

Are the Leafs a lottery team?
Chances of 75 points or less: 8.5 percent
Chances of landing a top five pick: 10.7 percent
Chances of giving away a top 10 pick: 20.3 percent<\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s win against the Blues might be a stepping stone, but everything that preceded it was damaging enough for a new question to emerge. The unfortunate truth is that the Leafs may not be bad enough for the wretchedness to even benefit them. As poor as they have looked, other teams are still a lot worse \u2014 the Blues being one of them. There\u2019s too much talent on the Leafs to outright tank, but the reality that Toronto could give up a top-10 pick to the Bruins is becoming very real.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The other sad reality: This question has become more relevant than the one that preceded it. The Leafs have a higher shot to land a top-five pick than they do to make the conference finals and their odds of getting the No. 1 pick are higher than their odds of winning the Stanley Cup.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Leafs may not be a lottery team, but they\u2019re currently a lot closer to that than many expected them to be going into the season.<\/p>\n

Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL Edge and Hockey Stat Cards<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One of the early questions that\u2019s plagued this year\u2019s Toronto Maple Leafs is, \u201cWhat exactly is this team\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":301948,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99,1788],"class_list":{"0":"post-301947","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-nhl","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-toronto-maple-leafs"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=301947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301947\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/301948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=301947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=301947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=301947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}