In the future, Elon Musk sees humans as metaphorical vegetable farmers.<\/p>\n
The Tesla<\/a> CEO said at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum<\/a> in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday that in the next 10 to 20 years, work will be optional, likening the decision to have a job to the more laborious upkeep of a vegetable garden.<\/p>\n \u201cMy prediction is that work will be optional. It\u2019ll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that,\u201d Musk said. \u201cIf you want to work, [it\u2019s] the same way you can go to the store and just buy some vegetables, or you can grow vegetables in your backyard. It\u2019s much harder to grow vegetables in your backyard, and some people still do it because they like growing vegetables.\u201d<\/p>\n The future of optional work will be the result of millions of robots in the workforce able to usher in a wave of enhanced productivity, according to Musk. The tech mogul, worth about $470 billion<\/a>, has made the recent push to expand Tesla beyond just electric vehicles, working on consolidating his sprawling business interests<\/a> into his broader vision of an AI-fueled, robotic-powered future. That includes his goal of having 80% of Tesla\u2019s value<\/a> come from his Optimus robots, despite continuous production delays<\/a> for the humanoid bots.\u00a0<\/p>\n To many others, the notion of an automated future is less bright, particularly amid concerns about and early evidence<\/a> of AI displacing entry-level jobs, which may be contributing to Gen Z\u2019s job market woes<\/a> and flatlining income growth<\/a>\u2014more of a nightmare than a utopian dream.<\/p>\n But in Musk\u2019s automated, job-voluntary future, money won\u2019t be an issue, he said. Musk takes a page from Iain M. Banks\u2019 Culture series of science fiction novels, in which the self-proclaimed socialist author<\/a> conjures a post-scarcity world filled with superintelligent AI beings and no traditional jobs.<\/p>\n \u201cIn those books, money doesn\u2019t exist. It\u2019s kind of interesting,\u201d Musk said. \u201cAnd my guess is, if you go out long enough\u2014assuming there\u2019s a continued improvement in AI and robotics, which seems likely\u2014money will stop being relevant.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n At Viva Technology 2024<\/a>, Musk suggested \u201cuniversal high income\u201d would sustain a world without necessary work, though he did not offer details on how this system would function. His reasoning rhymes with that of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who has advocated for universal basic income<\/a>, or regular payments given unconditionally to individuals, usually by the government.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThere would be no shortage of goods or services,\u201d Musk said at last year\u2019s conference.<\/p>\n Tesla did not immediately respond to Fortune\u2019s request for comment.<\/p>\n Is Musk\u2019s optional-work vision possible?<\/p>\n Creating the world Musk is describing will be a challenge, according to economists. First of all, there\u2019s the question of whether the technology to automate jobs will be accessible and affordable in the next couple of decades. While the cost of AI is decreasing, robotics are stubbornly expensive, making them harder to scale, according to Ioana Marinescu, an economist and associate professor of public policy at the University of Pennsylvania, who alongside colleague Konrad Kording published a working paper<\/a> at the Brookings Institution earlier this month. (For example, AI expense management platform Ramp noted<\/a> in April that companies are now paying $2.50 per 1 million tokens\u2014the fundamental unit for powering AI\u2014compared with $10 a year ago.)\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve been at it making machines forever, since the industrial revolution, at scale,\u201d Marinescu told Fortune. \u201cWe know from economics that \u2026 you often run\u2014for these kinds of activities\u2014into decreasing returns, as it gets harder in order to make progress in a line of technology that you\u2019ve been at, in this case, for a couple of centuries.\u201d<\/p>\n AI is progressing rapidly, she said. Large language models can be applied to myriad white-collar careers, while physical machines, which she said are necessary in automated labor, are not only more expensive, but highly specialized, contributing to the slowdown in their workplace implementation.<\/p>\n Marinescu agrees with Musk\u2019s vision of full-scale automation as the future of labor, but she is dubious about his timeline\u2014not only because of the limitations of robotics, but also because AI adoption in the workplace is still not as rapid as anticipated, despite recent tech-related layoffs<\/a>. A Yale Budget Lab report<\/a> from October found that since ChatGPT\u2019s November 2022 public release, the \u201cbroader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption\u201d because of AI automation.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the matter of what these sweeping changes in labor will mean for the millions\u2014or possibly billions\u2014of people without jobs. Even with an established need for a universal basic income, finding the political willpower to make it happen is a different issue, said Samuel Solomon, an assistant professor of labor economics at Temple University. He told Fortune the political structure supporting the transformed labor force will be just as important as the technological one.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAI has already created so much wealth and will continue to,\u201d Solomon said. \u201cBut I think one key question is: Is this going to be inclusive? Will it create inclusive prosperity? Will it create inclusive growth? Will everyone benefit?\u201d<\/p>\n The current systems have appeared to widen the gap between the haves and have-nots during this AI industrial revolution, beginning with Musk\u2019s $1 trillion pay package<\/a>. A ballooning AI bubble has also illuminated class differences<\/a>, with earnings expectations being revised up for the Magnificent Seven because of the AI boom, while expectations for the rest of the S&P 493 are being revised down, according to Apollo Global Management<\/a> chief economist Torsten Slok. It suggests that as of today.<\/p>\n \u201cSpending by well-off Americans, driven by their surging stock portfolios, is the single most significant driver of growth,\u201d Slok wrote in a blog post<\/a> earlier this month.<\/p>\n Existential changes<\/p>\n Ironing out the complicated logistics of a work-optional world is one thing. Figuring out whether that\u2019s something humans really want is another.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIf the economic value of labor declines so that labor is just not very useful anymore, we\u2019ll have to rethink how our society is structured,\u201d Anton Korinek, professor and faculty director of the Economics of Transformative AI Initiative at the University of Virginia, told Fortune.<\/p>\n