{"id":305477,"date":"2025-11-21T16:34:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T16:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/305477\/"},"modified":"2025-11-21T16:34:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T16:34:10","slug":"mlb-notebook-why-a-red-sox-trade-for-tarik-skubal-doesnt-make-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/305477\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Notebook: Why a Red Sox trade for Tarik Skubal doesn\u2019t make sense"},"content":{"rendered":"

If they so chose, the Red Sox<\/a> could probably position themselves as one of the favorites to trade for Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.<\/p>\n

Skubal will be eligible for free agency after the 2026 season, and while the Tigers haven\u2019t given any indication they\u2019re shopping Skubal this winter, executives across the game believe they\u2019re inclined to, at minimum, listen to offers.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no precedent in recent years for the Tigers to spend the kind of money it would require to extend Skubal. The last nine-figure commitment by the team came more than a decade ago with the Tigers\u2019 eight-year, $248 million extension for Miguel Cabrera.<\/p>\n

But that contract came when the franchise was desperate for a title before beloved owner Mike Ilitch passed. Ilitch died in 2017, and his sons have not shown the same urgency to win. And given that Skubal is likely to be seeking a long-term deal in excess of the one given to Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324 million), it\u2019s difficult to imagine Skubal staying with the Tigers beyond next season. Hence, the trade speculation.<\/p>\n

Skubal\u2019s projected salary for 2026, his final year of arbitration eligibility, is estimated at $17.8 million. That\u2019s an affordable number for the Red Sox\u2019 projected payroll and, relatively speaking, a bargain for the two-time Cy Young Award winner.<\/p>\n

Money isn\u2019t the issue here for the Red Sox. Acquisition cost and risk are.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the latter. Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, who almost always directs his clients to go on the free agent market \u2014 the better to maximize their leverage and future earnings.<\/p>\n

Loosely translated, that means that a team trading for Skubal this winter would hold no particular advantage toward signing him to a long-term extension. Instead, think of Skubal as the pitching version of outfielder Juan Soto after the 2023 season.<\/p>\n

Soto had a year of control remaining when the New York Yankees shipped five prospects to the Padres for what turned out to be a one-year rental. The Yankees won the American League pennant with Soto in 2024 before losing in five games to the Dodgers in the World Series.<\/p>\n

But when it came to retaining Soto long-term, the Yankees held no advantage over other bidders, including the Red Sox and New York Mets. The Yankees ultimately offered Soto a 16-year, $760 million offer, but Soto opted to sign with the crosstown Mets.<\/p>\n

That should serve as a cautionary tale for the Red Sox in the Skubal Sweepstakes. Dealing for Skubal this winter would give them no edge whatsoever next winter when everyone will start from scratch.<\/p>\n

And while the cost was significant for Soto, it would likely be even greater for Skubal, given how teams value elite starting pitching. Currently, other than Pittsburgh\u2019s Paul Skenes \u2014 who has the advantage of being younger and under control for four more seasons \u2013 there\u2019s no more prized arm in the game. Skubal has won the last two AL Cy Young Awards and at 29, is just now entering the prime of his career.<\/p>\n

What would a package for Skubal look like for the Red Sox?<\/p>\n

This week in The Athletic, former MLB executive Jim Bowden proposed the Sox send Connelly Early, Kristian Campbell, Jhostynxon Garcia<\/a> and pitching prospect Christian Foutch.<\/p>\n

You may quibble with Bowden\u2019s proposal, but it\u2019s probably not far off. The fact is, it\u2019s almost impossible to imagine the Red Sox landing Skubal without a similar group: An elite pitching prospect (Early), an elite position player prospect (Garcia), another promising young player (Campbell) and a lottery ticket (Foutch).<\/p>\n

Is that a wise move for the Red Sox to make? Not here, it isn\u2019t. Not for just a single season for Skubal \u2014 regardless of how talented the pitcher is.<\/p>\n

If the Sox \u2014 or other teams \u2014 were getting two years of control of Skubal, it might be something to consider. Two full seasons with a 1-2 punch of Skubal and Garrett Crochet could translate to two shots at a championship. But for a single season? What if Skubal has a minor injury \u2014 something that could hardly be ruled out? Then, the Red Sox would be looking at perhaps 25 starts in exchange for at least three top prospects.<\/p>\n

And yes, the Red Sox \u2014 or another acquiring team \u2013 could give Skubal a qualifying offer after 2026 that would give them additional compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. But until the new CBA is negotiated, there\u2019s no telling what would that be. If the same compensation system were in place, the Sox would get nothing better than a fourth-round pick, based on their overage when it comes to the CBT threshold.<\/p>\n

Finally, there\u2019s the matter of where the Sox currently sit competitively. While they qualified for the postseason last year for the first time since 2021 and are viewed as a team on the ascent, are they good enough to go from losing in the wild card round to actually competing for a World Series title \u2014 even allowing for Skubal\u2019s brilliance? In other words: is Skubal so good that he can lift a team from 89 wins and a third-place finish to a pennant winner? Doubtful.<\/p>\n

For a team like the Dodgers, seeking a third-straight title, or even the runner-up Blue Jays, Skubal makes more sense. Imagine Skubal joining the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani and Blake Snell? Or even fronting an already solid Toronto rotation, joined by Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage? Those are different calculations.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still waiting for some of their own homegrown talent to fully develop. That might take until 2027 or beyond, by which time Skubal will likely be wearing the uniform of another franchise.<\/p>\n

Contrast that to the benefits of trading for, say, Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins.<\/a> Ryan would come with an additional year or control and theoretically, would be more open to a contract extension beyond his two years.<\/p>\n

Moreover, his arbitration salary for 2026 is pegged at under $6 million for 2026, meaning the Red Sox could likely get, at minimum, two years of Ryan for about the same amount of salary needed for one year of Skubal.<\/p>\n

Skubal, of course, is more accomplished than Ryan. But it\u2019s easier to make the case that Ryan is the better value play here.<\/p>\n

________________________<\/p>\n

Major League Baseball entered into new broadcast partnerships with two new entities and recalibrated with a third earlier this week.<\/p>\n

MLB made a deal with Netflix for Opening Night, the Field of Dreams Game and the Home Run Derby. NBC takes over as the new home for Sunday Night Baseball and the wild card round of the playoffs and ESPN will televise 30 regular season games while also acquiring the rights to out-of-market games via MLB.TV along with in-market rights for six clubs.<\/p>\n

If all of that sounds confusing, it is. But the real intrigue is going to come in three more years when MLB\u2019s other, bigger TV deals expire with Turner and FOX, who combine to own the rights to the All-Star Game, Game of the Week, the Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series.<\/p>\n

At the same time, there\u2019s talk about MLB selling off the local rights to all 30 teams and housing them under one, encompassing streaming deal.<\/p>\n

The revenues at stake there will be great enough so that local RSNs (regional sports networks) like NESN, the YES Network and others will forfeit local rights in exchange for a bigger slice of the TV pie.<\/p>\n

And why would big-market teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees surrender those? Simple \u2014 under such a plan, those teams would no longer be required to make enormous revenue sharing payments. An industry source with knowledge of the arrangement estimates that in a given year, the Red Sox pay out about $80 million for their revenue sharing assessment.<\/p>\n

In turn, look for the idea of a national streaming service to be tied into the next year\u2019s messy collective bargaining agreement. Timing is everything.<\/p>\n

_____________<\/p>\n

In a record-setting day, four free agents accepted qualifying offers from their teams this past week: Trent Grisham (Yankees), Shota Imanaga (Cubs), Gleyber Torres (Tigers) and Brandon Woodruff (Brewers).<\/p>\n

Before Monday, only 12 players out of 157 total had accepted the qualifying offers dating back to 2012 when the system was first introduced.<\/p>\n

The QO was worth $22.025 million this time around, a not-insignificant salary for one year. Still, it was something of a surprise that so many players were willing to take one year deals and put themselves back on the market next winter, just as MLB and the Players Association are expected to collide, resulting in a Dec. 1 lockout that will complicate things across the industry, and, some believe, threaten an on-time start for the 2027 season.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a gamble those four will have to take. If they have strong seasons, they\u2019ll position themselves for a second dip into free agency \u2014 it\u2019s just that they might have to wait months for their payday.<\/p>\n

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